Of all industrial processes, cement clinker production is the largest source of CO₂. It contributes around 4% to the total of CO₂ emissions from fuel use and industrial activities, globally. China has a large share in global cement production (about 44% in 2006), and cement production’s domestic share of CO₂ emissions in China is almost 9% (550 megatonnes out of a total of the total 6,200 megatonnes).

In 2006, the total of China’s CO₂  emissions from fossil fuels increased by 9% from 2005 levels. In the US, emissions in 2006 decreased by 1.4%, compared to 2005 levels. In the European Union countries (the EU 15) in that same year, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels remained more or less constant; in 2005 there was a decrease by 0.8%, according to a recent report by the EEA compiling data from the member states.

In 2006, worldwide CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel use increased by about 2.6%—a slower rate of increase than the 3.3% in 2005. The 2.6% increase is mainly due to a 4.5% increase in global coal consumption, of which China contributed more than two-thirds. In the 1990-2006 period global fossil-fuel related CO₂ emissions increased more than 35%. According to MNP’s analysis:

• Global CO₂ emissions from coal combustion increased 4.5% (+500 megatonnes CO₂). China contributed most to this increase with a 9% increase in 2006 (vs. 12% in 2005). In the rest of the world coal combustion emissions increased by 2%.

• Global CO₂ emissions from combustion of natural gas increased 2.5% (+130 megatonnes CO2), mainly due to increasing consumption in Russia and China.

• Global CO₂ emissions from combustion of oil products increased only 0.7% (+90 megatonnes CO₂), mainly due to a decrease in consumption in OECD countries by 0.9% on average.

Methodology and data sources. MNP estimates are based on the most recent data on fossil fuel consumption from the BP Review of Energy 2007 (BP, 2007) and cement production data through 2006 published by the US Geological Survey (USGS). The CO₂  estimates for 2005 and 2006 were compiled by MNP using the detailed national CO₂ emission estimates for energy use through 2004 compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA,2006) and its own estimates for CO₂  emissions from cement clinker production.

The estimates of CO₂  emissions do not include emissions from flaring and venting of associated gas during oil and gas production and CO₂  emissions from deforestation/logging/decay of remaining biomass and are calculated using default CO₂  emission factors recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). CO₂  emissions from underground coal fires in China and elsewhere are not included either. The magnitude of these sources is very uncertain; according to recent research CO₂  emissions from coal fires are estimated at 150-450 megatonnes CO₂  annually in China.

The energy data annually published by BP appear to be reasonably accurate, according to MNP. Based on older BP energy data, the increase in 2004 in CO₂  emissions was estimated at 4.9% globally. With presently available more detailed statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2004 the increase is now estimated at 5.0%.