Financial Times. In a talk at the Oil & Money conference in London, the CEO of Total predicted that global oil output will fall well short of official forecasts from the IEA and the US EIA.
In an unusually stark prediction for the head of one of the world’s biggest oil companies, Christophe de Margerie, CEO of the French group, said it would be difficult to reach even 100m barrels a day.
The International Energy Agency, the rich countries’ watchdog, in its “business as usual” projections, has said oil supply will reach 116m barrels a day by 2030, up from about 85m b/d today. The US government has a similar forecast of 118m b/d in 2030, including a relatively small contribution from biofuels.
Mr de Margerie, however, said while forecasts could always change, “100m barrels [per day] . . . is now in my view an optimistic case”.
He added: “It is not my view: it is the industry view, or the view of those who like to speak clearly, honestly, and not . . . just try to please people.”
De Margerie said that while reserves are sufficient, the constraints are the industry’s ability to produce the oil quickly enough and the willingness of countries owning the reserves to develop them. Other speakers at the conference also warned of the limits to the expansion of oil output.