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Mexico’s Cantarell Continues Steep Decline in Oil Production in 2007

Cantarell081
Average daily production by year from the combined fields of the Cantarell complex. Click to enlarge.

Oil production from Mexico’s giant Cantarell offshore complex continued its steep decline in 2007, dropping to a combined average 1.458 million barrels per day (mbpd) of production from all the fields, down 18% from an average 1,776.2 mbpd in 2006, according to statistics from the Energy Ministry available on the Sistema de Información Energética (SIE).

Cantarell accounted for 47.3% of all of PEMEX’s crude oil output in 2007, down from 54.6% in 2006. Mexico’s total crude output dropped 5.3% in 2007 compared to the year before, down to 3.082 million barrels per day from 3.256 mpbd in 2006 according to the SIE statistics.

Cantarell082
Average daily production by month from Akal-Nohoch, 2002-2007. Click to enlarge.

Production from the Akal-Nohoch field in Cantarell, which accounted for 98% of the output from Cantarell in 2007 and for 46% of Mexico’s total crude oil output in the year, dropped to an average 1.261 mbpd in December 2007, down 16% from December 2006.

The rate of decline remans more rapid than PEMEX had anticipated. In testimony before the Energy Committee of the Mexican Senate in November 2006, PEMEX CEO Luis Ramirez Corzo said that production at Cantarell would decline by an average of 14% per year between 2007 and 2015. (Earlier post.)

Cantarell’s production peaked in 2004 at 2.113 million barrels per day, according to SEI data. In 1997, PEMEX began nitrogen injection to maintain reservoir pressure. The injection regimen supported increasing crude oil production from 1.083 million barrels per day in 1996 to the peak in 2004.

Cantarell083
Total Mexico average daily crude oil production by year, with contribution from Cantarell complex shown  by red line. Click to enlarge.

The US imported an average of 1.705 million barrels per day of crude from Mexico in 2006—12.4% of the total imported—making Mexico the number two source of imported crude behind Canada, with 2.353 mpbd in 2006 (17.7%), according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Daily US imports from Mexico for the first 10 months of 2007 averaged 1,550 mbpd (11.5% of the total, according to the EIA), while imports from Canada for the same period averaged 2.432 mbpd (18% of the total).

According to the SIE, Mexico’s total crude oil exports dropped 6% from an average 1,793 mbpd in 2006 to 1,686 mbpd in 2007.

Comments

cce

Any slow down in the gulf stream will be more than offset by warming over Europe due to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

The "ice age over Europe scenario" is considered very unlikely (<10% probability). It may have happened in the past (younger dryas) but that was the result of a lot of fresh water draining into the North Atlantic very quickly -- far quicker than Greenland can melt under even the worst prediction.

Paul F. Dietz

Don't have to. Mother Nature will take care of that for me. If you want proof, just wait ten years.

So, 'Briney', if there is no evidence to support your assertion, just how did you come to believe it? Voices in your head? I mean, you didn't just make it up, right? Right?

Stan Peterson

@ Briney,

There are none so blind that will not see.

People who are too dumb to study Science and get their physics and religion from politicians can't be expected to understand much. You upset their sure and certain opinions and world view, as provided by the hopeless asses that are our many of our cynical political leaders. It takes a genuine divinity school dropout to preach fire and brimstone, the end of the world. Algore has made over a $100 million dollars doing so. So the corruption pays well. Just as many others cynics who have taken over the environmental organizations, know full well.

Solar satellites and solar astro-physics is effectively a new Science since 2001. It is now easy to predict solar output fluctuations on the short and intermediate scale, of a few decades, and it is definitely in the cards that the solar output is going down for the next thirty years at least, with slight bump in 2012 or so. So the Earth will cool.

It is getting downright embarrassing to the religious AGW true believers, since there hasn't been any appreciable warming in the past decade, despite the transitional and temporary rise in CO2 levels. The petroleum era is only starting to close. When it does, CO2 will be rapidly cleansed form the atmosphere within but a decade. If indeed it is principally Mankind that has raised the CO2 level, and not simply increased out-gassing from the Ocean in response to the increased solar flux.

The UN's IPCC scientists, as opposed to the bureaucrats, are gradually coming to agreement that
variable solar output is the cause of the minor warming we have experienced, and not mostly GHGs, as the world recovers from the Little Ice Age.

Solar output fluctuations are periodic and not something that is Mankind's fault, no matter how much the politicians would like to place blame on humanity and layer on lots of guilt to make you feel its only just to have to pay more taxes as a Penance.

Of course its a non sequitor. Taxes have no effect on the climate.

But the power seeking con artists would make you think they do.

GHGs as motive force for global warming is being constantly downgraded; with lots of downgrades already committed to follow in the IPCC's next five year report.

Hopefully, this will discredit the asses that saw this as a means to continue their attempted socialist takeover of the economy. Of course such an event will impoverish all. Marxist nonsense is like the fabled vampire. Every time it fails and is discredited, other politicians revive it as a means to power for themselves.

It is amazing how many Western people actually believe that the world outlook is bleak. They have been thoroughly brainwashed to believe the worst of everyone and all things. It is inconceivable to them, that the world is on the edge of a bountiful, non poverty, plentiful, healthy, lifestyle for all of humanity.

What's more they are astonished to discover that there is more than enough resources for all with out detriment to the living spaces around us. They go looking for the direst forecasts and Peakist nonsense is fashionable. As if it mattered when we will not need anywhere as much petroleum, soon.

All the metals and chemicals are increasingly available and at better prices, Only cartelized petroleum has not succumbed to declining prices.

The lack of a substitute in the transportation sector was the reason for the continuing extortion. But the petroleum extortionists have overplayed their hand as all politicians concerned only with the extreme short term, are prone to do. Petroleum may be limited and inefficient but our singular dependence almost wholly in the transportation sector, is on the verge of ending. Most other petroleum uses have already found substitutes and substitution is far advanced.

look at the bright side. We have almost wholly cleansed our environment of genuine pollutants. We are on the verge of solving our energy needs forever. Inexhaustible Fusion is measurably closer than the 1973 oil shock; the last generation of Nukes is advancing toward construction within the decade and worldwide. The idiocy of "renewable" energy sources has been shown to be an uneconomic farce, and can be applied only in the smallest cases.

We are on the verge of finding a substitute for a cartelized petroleum industry. The replacement, electricity is intrinsically cleaner and is not limited in any meaningful way as to source for the electricity, once political obstacles are removed and they largely have been.

It has been tough for the US to adapt to the migration of lots of industry moving to cheaper foreign countries. So that those societies can aspire to wealth too. But we have accepted it unlike the socialist EU. Still the expanding US population, legal or otherwise, has found enough good employment to provide for virtually all its population that wants to work.

Despite the fears of the extremist Luddites, the US domestically makes as many cars and trucks as it ever did; albeit the brands include lots of foreign names. We make almost as much steel domestically as ever, but the old line steel companies are not well represented in the new lists of steel makers. These new US steel-makers are the most energy efficient in the world. They possess an uncopyable method by the rapidly industrializing countries, mining the mountains of scrap steel from a long industrialized country. Don't succumb to the despair the dupes feel.


Briney

No, unlike you AGW'ers... I looked at the empirical evidence rather than relying on dogma and questionable computer projections. Given that nothing I say will convince you, I will let time and the natural course of events do that. Since I'm such a nice guy, however, I'll give you some food for thought to get you started: the Wolf number and Gleissberg minima. Bon Appetit...

arnold

Good to see Stan's back and found a soul mate.
Pity about the Subject
One can see here that the spoilers really don't want any discussion on his serious matter.
SJC, we must stop meeting like this!

1 I would have thought that, once the water conduction was driven off. IE. the ground became dry around the kiln, that the thermal insulation properties would become very good. Maybe several meters.

2 no one care to comment on the matter CO2 or N enhanced oil recovery gases that may escape from abandoned well sites or accidental or allowed leakage.
No one offering a good case for dismissing this.

Matthew

Stephen, you illiterate boob...'over the next few years' refers to a *future* event. If you can't comprehend second-grade English, how can you presume to understand anything going on in the world?

Engineer-Poet

This discussion is truly afflicted by an irritation of trolls.

Engineer-Poet

And lest any newbies be confused by Stan's blustering attempts to move the Overton window:

The UN's IPCC scientists, as opposed to the bureaucrats, are gradually coming to agreement that variable solar output is the cause of the minor warming we have experienced
For those who missed it, THAT IS A LIE.  This Stan Peterson character (if that's his real name) is one of the most shameless liars among the climate-denial lobby's psyops operatives.

drivin98

Psyops? I thought he was just a very lonely guy with a lot of time on his hands.

Neil

Not long ago someone posted a link to a speech by an anti-AGW fellow by the name of Prof. Pat Michaels. Interestingly enough, the first thing he said in his speech was "First of all I want to tell you about this issue and how to lose any argument, please don't go around, and you can hear this on talk radio all the time, saying that there is no such thing as global warming"

So, for all those trying to take a step back and deny that warming is even happening, you lost the argument at that moment.

Andrey

Neil:

Question whether GW is real or not is much more nuanced than simple yes or no. For detailed analysis take a look here, it is quite entertaining and informative:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI

Paul F. Dietz

No, unlike you AGW'ers... I looked at the empirical evidence rather than relying on dogma and questionable computer projections. Given that nothing I say will convince you, I will let time and the natural course of events do that.

No, you just have some random misinformation your malfunctioning brain has misintepreted as supporting your sad prejudices. If you had actual good evidence you could give it. Continue your delusion if it comforts you, but don't expect us to allow you to propagate your gibberish unchallenged.

Matthew

Discussing global warming with a True Believer is a lot like debating religion with someone who insists on the literal veracity of the Bible; it's not possible to present evidence contrary to their worldview, because their minds are no longer flexible enough to acknowledge that such evidence can even exist.

In the same way that we do with the occasional cults who think they know the exact date of Jesus' return, or that there's a spaceship hiding behind the comet that only they know about, all we can do is wait for events to overtake their faith...and in the case of global warming, try to keep them from doing too much damage before then.

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