Germany Cancels Plans to Introduce E10 in 2009
03 April 2008
by Rafael Seidl
German environment minister Sigmar Gabriel has canceled plans to raise the mandatory ethanol content of all Euro91 and Euro95 gasoline grade fuel sold in the country from the current 5% to 10% in 2009.
Meanwhile, the German oil industry is withdrawing Euro91 from the market as global demand has driven its wholesale prices level with those of the higher-octane Euro95 product. Owners of vehicles whose fuel systems were not designed for E10 compatibility would have to fill up on premium Euro98 instead, which currently costs ~12% more at the pump but yields only ~6% more miles per gallon (thanks to energy density, not octane rating).
Gabriel had previously indicated the E10 introduction would be canceled if the total number of legacy vehicles whose fuel systems are incompatible with it exceeds one million. The German industry association VDA had earlier insisted its contribution to the total would be well below 375,000 vehicles (excluding motorcycles and oldtimers), an estimate that has held.
However, the association of international vehicle importers VDIK has now reported that more than a million legacy vehicles from foreign manufacturers are affected. German drivers’ association ADAC pessimistically estimates the total could be as high as three million vehicles.
The cancellation comes at a time when criticism of first-generation biofuels is on the rise throughout Europe. On the one hand, it has dawned on city dwellers that farm interests are using biofuels as a means to shift subsidies from food production to non-food agriculturals, rather than phase them out. On the other, rising food prices have been linked to biofuels demand. Moreover, the portion that cannot be met by domestic producers has to be imported from e.g. Brazil and Malaysia, where it has been linked to clear-cutting of virgin rainforests, with significant knock-on effects on net GHG benefits (this applies primarily to biodiesel).
Unfortunately, as is so often the case, imprecise reporting by the mainstream media in Germany often fails to differentiate between the food-based first-generation technology currently in use and second-generation solutions that rely on cellulose and/or algae for their feedstock (incl. biomethane). As a result, it will now become that much harder for these benign and valuable emerging technologies to find a market in Germany and by extension, in the EU. Already, commentators are suggesting we refer to them as “agrofuels” instead.
The growing blanket opposition to all things labeled “biofuel” will also make it very difficult for the EU to require high blend compatibility for all vehicles starting at some future date. Such a measure would be relatively cheap and represent an insurance policy for politicians, giving them the option of permitting—or mandating—higher blend levels if and when affordable and sustainable production methods should materialize. As this episode in Germany clearly illustrates, the vehicle fleet needs to be prepared for such a change many years ahead of time. After all, consumers pay insurance premiums for all sorts of things, why would they refuse to do so when it comes to the energy supply for their personal transportation?
Note that the FFV loophole in CAFE did achieve such an insurance policy for part of the US fleet, but only at the expense of reduced actual fleet average fuel economy. Moreover, E85 compatibility has always been voluntary, as has selling ethanol-gasoline fuel blends—except in areas with particularly poor air quality, such as California. The political force behind E85 has long been the corn ethanol lobby in the Midwest, against resistance from the oil industry. However it may be spun today, it was not in fact the result of a coherent energy policy designed to reduce dependence on oil and fuel imports. For these reasons, the FFV model may prove of limited value in convincing Germans they should spend $50-100 extra on their new car “just in case”, especially at the present juncture.
Instead, expect a resumption of the stale discussion on a general speed limit in Germany. This is a highly emotional subject in the country, akin to Americans’ right to bear arms. Moreover, the idea that consumers would choose smaller engines as a result is not borne out by the US experience, where even regular mid-size sedans feature 200+ hp in spite of relatively low general speed limits.
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I view this as a good development. They may have recognized ethanol use leads to worse green house warming in the short term, and in the intermediate term time-frame.
Let's not dive into ethanol before we figure out the land displacement issue.
Posted by: Lulu | 03 April 2008 at 02:58 PM
Its simple Ethanol is a better alternative to petroleum concering green house gases. There is plenty of food to go around its a distribution problem not a shortage problem.
Posted by: fb | 03 April 2008 at 06:12 PM
"the land displacement issue?"
Ethanol made from waste e.g. Range Fuels plant in Georgia displaces only the land it is built on. There are no displacement issues. Biofuel foot dragging now only convinces petros to drill more black gold. Which way is better?
greencarcongress.com/2008/04/range-fuels-rai.html
Posted by: | 03 April 2008 at 07:06 PM
Has the Farm Lobby suddenly started posting on GCC?
Posted by: George | 03 April 2008 at 09:34 PM
Where do you suppose that e95 is getting the "extra" Octane? (in the U.S. it's, usually, ethanol that gives the "Premium" brand it's higher octane.) The poor old Germans are getting played like violins.
Posted by: kum dollison | 03 April 2008 at 09:47 PM
Biofuels - the infuse of a dying technology.
Posted by: Anne | 04 April 2008 at 01:33 AM
Well said Anne.
I would make an exception. To cleanly transform garbage and other undesirable waste into useful biofuel for irreplaceable applications + chemical, plastic and clothing industries would be acceptable.
Why couldn't we clean our environnment and reduce fossil fuel consumption at the same time.
Posted by: Harvey D | 04 April 2008 at 05:15 AM
Good for Europe for squashing bio-fuels. All those posting here that bio-fuels pit poor people against hungry engines by raising food prices, are ecologically poor, use farm lands intensively, reduce tropical forests, add to air pollution & don't reduce GHG, must diligently post where bio-fuel people post to put the kabash on bio-fuels.
Posted by: litesong | 04 April 2008 at 05:56 AM
Fair enough, then the Global South will go it alone. They will follow the lead of Brazil.
The Europeans once again show that they are conservative and sclerotic by nature and fail to see the bigger picture of global energy security and the development opportunities biofuels bring to poor countries in the South.
I suggest we all ditch the Europeans. After all, they're becoming more irrelevant by the day.
I see Brazil, Africa, China and India collaborate on biofuels all across the Global South. They have a far better grasp of the impacts of high oil prices on their economies, so they will not hesitate to go for the most sensible alternative, which is obviously biofuels.
Posted by: Jonas | 04 April 2008 at 06:09 AM
Europe had taken the road of automotive efficiency with the 130gm/km CO2 limit.
They are right to slow up adoption of biofuels until we know more about it. It makes sense to use up all ag and forest wastes and setaside land, but after that, you start to eat into farmland.
The main thing is to prevent this becoming an ever larger sap to the farmers (than the CAP already is).
It should be easier to reduce vehicle fuel usage by 5% than going from 5 -> 10% biofuels in gasoline.
Obviously, you can't do this for ever, but we have really only got serious it he last 2 or 3 years so there is a long way to go.
And then there is electrification of transport, total or partial.
Posted by: mahonj | 04 April 2008 at 06:49 AM
Germany pioneered synthetic fuels in the 1930s. I find it ironic that they would not be promoting them now. They could synthesize them from waste material and label them as biofuel and reserve the label agrifuel for corn based ethanol. The classification is not that difficult.
Interesting to note that the big issue there is speed limit. In a country that has very few fossil fuel resources, this is surprising to me. I would think that with the Green party there promoting solar, they would promote cellulose biofuels and synthetic fuels from waste materials, along with solar panels.
Posted by: sjc | 04 April 2008 at 06:58 AM
The loss of public faith in biofuels because of the shortcomings of first generation technologies is a real shame (and I agree, the reporting has been poor).
We have faced a similar problem in the UK regarding public faith in wind power. People have been putting up residential wind turbines at £2,000 per shot and sometimes receiving as little as £2.00 worth of electricity per year.
So everyone cries that wind power doesn't work. Of course it doesn't when the installers are putting them up on the leeward wall of a house below the ridgeline like most of them have been!
Posted by: clett | 04 April 2008 at 07:55 AM
Some similar claims were made about the Altamonte Pass between San Francisco and Sacramento. In the 70s there were tax breaks for renewable energy. Lots of different wind turbine designs went up and some said it was a boondoggle.
I used to drive past that area now and then and I have seen quite a few wind turbines running and producing 30 years later. There are more advanced designs today that require less repair and are more reliable.
It is a shame that there are scam artists out there trying to take advantage of people, but this is a case of buyer beware. The government can police some fraud, but it is up to the consumer to judge. If it sounds too good too be true, it probably is.
We are going to need renewable energy for all those EVs and PHEVs. It would be harmful if a few scam artists were allowed to give renewable energy a bad name.
Posted by: sjc | 04 April 2008 at 08:18 AM
I'm slightly confused . . .I was assuming any gasoline vehicle could run (up to a maximum) E10 without modifications or long-term ill effects. . .?
Posted by: bert | 04 April 2008 at 08:35 AM
I'm in support of the german decision, even if the german adopted cliche 'oldtimer' is used in english translations. (thanks Rafael, we know what you mean. In UK english we say 'Classic Car', by the way)
@sjc
Germany is well represented on the development of synthetic fuels from gasification of wood and forestry waste. See http://www.choren.com/en/
Austria has been working on it too see http://www.ficfb.at/renet_d.htm and this is an interesting Austrian view on using their copious forestry waste, google this:
"C_6_04_Hofbauer_presentation_L2L_2007.pdf"
As many people have written: Besides the pre-set threshold of less than 1 Million legacy vehicles unsuitable for E10, there is political pressure due to recent studies that suggest we should continue investing in R&D and put off the deadline for adoption.
It seems clear that second generation fuels are the way to go, using agricultural, forestry and even domestic and industrial waste as a feed stock.
E10 was due to become mandatory *next year*, however, and it is not clear that these second generation fuels will be producible in the required volume by then.
In General:
Ethanol:
As is also said here - well to wheels studies have shown CO2 reduction potential of first generation Ethanol to be low. Brazil has been listed as the one exception, but the fear is that significant increases in demand would result in detrimental changes of land use in that country, degrading the fuel's environmental value.
Diesel:
The CO2 reduction potential of well-sourced biodiesel is found to be much higher, but the land area available is limited. The mechanism to trace land-use practices to source, and the international standards to support it are not yet in place.
Other uses:
In the UK, government studies concluded that the CO2 reduction potential of waste Biomass was best used in heating and cogeneration for large rural buildings such as schools, hospitals and housing blocks. Future housing developments in rural towns may be constructed with district heating for this purpose.
Posted by: Tim | 04 April 2008 at 09:36 AM
I'm in support of the german decision, even if the german adopted cliche 'oldtimer' is used in english translations. (thanks Rafael, we know what you mean. In UK english we say 'Classic Car', by the way)
@sjc
Germany is well represented on the development of synthetic fuels from gasification of wood and forestry waste. See http://www.choren.com/en/
Austria has been working on it too see http://www.ficfb.at/renet_d.htm and this is an interesting Austrian view on using their copious forestry waste, google this:
"C_6_04_Hofbauer_presentation_L2L_2007.pdf"
As many people have written: Besides the pre-set threshold of less than 1 Million legacy vehicles unsuitable for E10, there is political pressure due to recent studies that suggest we should continue investing in R&D and put off the deadline for adoption.
It seems clear that second generation fuels are the way to go, using agricultural, forestry and even domestic and industrial waste as a feed stock.
E10 was due to become mandatory *next year*, however, and it is not clear that these second generation fuels will be producible in the required volume by then.
In General:
Ethanol:
As is also said here - well to wheels studies have shown CO2 reduction potential of first generation Ethanol to be low. Brazil has been listed as the one exception, but the fear is that significant increases in demand would result in detrimental changes of land use in that country, degrading the fuel's environmental value.
Diesel:
The CO2 reduction potential of well-sourced biodiesel is found to be much higher, but the land area available is limited. The mechanism to trace land-use practices to source, and the international standards to support it are not yet in place.
Other uses:
In the UK, government studies concluded that the CO2 reduction potential of waste Biomass was best used in heating and cogeneration for large rural buildings such as schools, hospitals and housing blocks. Future housing developments in rural towns may be constructed with district heating for this purpose.
Posted by: Tim | 04 April 2008 at 09:47 AM
bert;
We have the same impression around here. Many local gas stations offer E-10 and have done so for a few years without drivers complaints. Unfortunately, corn ethanol is used.
Personally, I find reduced liquid fuel consumption a much more logical approach. This can be done different ways with more efficient, lighter, ICE, diesels, hybrids, PHEVs and eventually pure BEVs.
With cars doing 100+ mpg instead of 20 mpg + BEVs using no liquid fuel, reduced biofuel production could become more manageable. Using edible crops to feed ethanol and biofuels plants is not the solution, even if it seems to temporarily help farmers in poor countries.
Transport vehicle electrification + lower cost solar panels and batteries is a better way to go for all countries.
Of course, richer countries can afford up-to-date nuclear plants. wind power, etc.
Posted by: Harvey D | 04 April 2008 at 09:59 AM
I agree that we can use less energy and still have similar utility through technology. Dual fuel PHEVs could get us where we want to go. They could reduce fuel consumption significantly. But as we all know, people do not just replace their vehicles with the latest models. Some people may be waiting to see where this all ends up. Early adopters buy the hybrids, but that greater numbers wait until it is a clear choice.
Posted by: sjc | 04 April 2008 at 11:19 AM
@ Bert -
I couldn't find authoritative information on the situation in the US, but it seems cars there have generally been compliant with E10 for many years now because of federal rules on the oxygenation of reformulated gasoline.
Ironically, those were lifted in 2005 in the context of eliminating legal cover for blends containing MTBE, which had leaked from some single-hulled fuel tanks at certain CA gas stations, polluting the ground water there.
http://www.winktimber.com/reader/reader13.htm
http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/gasoline/Oxy/uswinter.pdf
In Australia, too, (new) cars are E10 compatible:
http://www.allbusiness.com/operations/facilities-office-equipment/613019-1.html
In Europe, a lot of cars still cannot handle more than E5 because politicians did not require car makers to ensure that they can before embarking on a quixotic quest to increase blend levels.
NOTE: the engineering impact of ethanol blending, i.e. swelling of rubber components etc., is actually worst in the 20-50% range for materials that are commonly used in fuel systems today. For E85, the impact is about the same as for E5.
http://www.atzonline.com/index.php;do=show/site=a4e/sid=90358d9778b263c336cd77c0b9e0df15/alloc=3/id=7353
Posted by: Rafael Seidl | 04 April 2008 at 01:44 PM
I'm not surprised that Germany is holding of increasing the renewable element of liquid fuels. It was always going to be a big step to go from 5% to 10% in one year. A gradual approach 1% extra per year would allow production to ramp up as the requirement does and avoid large surges in demand.
I agree that reductions in speed would make a larger difference in reduction of fossil fuels than the use of bio fuels. I have a Toyot Prius and I can easily make the fuel consumption worse, from 55mpg to 50mpg just by driving part of my daily commute at 70mph rather than doing it at 55mph. There are many people in the UK who cruise at 80mph on the motorways and who must be using much more fuel than if they stayed at the legal limit of 70mph
Posted by: Martin Lee | 04 April 2008 at 01:55 PM
The U.S. ethanol laws seem to be setting higher levels each year a bit at a time. It almost looks like they are looking at what can be produced and saying that is the level for next year.
The last time I looked at information on it, they said that if a state could not make the targets they would have to make it up the following year.
California had opposed it, because they did not make much ethanol. They wanted a waiver to produce clean air gasoline with blending. They failed in that effort and had to import ethanol from other states.
Posted by: sjc | 04 April 2008 at 02:37 PM
So far, only food-to-fuel (like corn ethanol, palm oil biodiesel, sugar cane ethanol) are produced in quantities over the world. Now, palm oil tree and sugar cane do not grow in Europe. Europe has twice the population of US with half the landmass. Plus genetically engineered crops are forbidden in Europe, resulting in three times less corn yield compared to US. Price of imported vegetable oil is sky-high, about 1.30-1.50 per liter. Europe is physically incapable to have more than 1-2% of biofuel blend.
Cellulosic ethanol, biomass-to-liquid are all good, but these technologies are not yet here or are really small, like waste cooking oil to diesel.
So, European rulers, back-pedaling biofuel mandates, are just following reality (and bashing biofuels as an excuse for their stupidity).
BTW, German biodiesel refining industry is devastated; plants are actively disassembled and sold oversea:
“Germany's biodiesel industry is only producing at about 10 percent of capacity largely because a biofuels tax increase on Jan 1 hugely cut sales…This was down from output at 20 percent capacity in November 2007 and many companies were facing closure…Germany in late 2006 started taxing biodiesel as the government said it could not afford to lose the large tax revenue from fossil diesel.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/summitNews/idUSL1589672020080115
Posted by: Andrey Levin | 04 April 2008 at 08:18 PM
Without Biofuelimport Europe will not have enough Energy in the Future .
Posted by: C. Spangenberg | 05 April 2008 at 05:13 AM
@ C. Spangenberg -
you're assuming that biomass yields per acre cannot be improved, which may prove incorrect. At the moment, the science of algaculture, i.e. growing single-celled algae in large quantities, is still very much imperfect. At the laboratory scale, yields are already 20-100 times higher than for higher plants.
However, if water evaporation can be controlled, e.g. by growing these unconventional crops in closed bioreactors, there is more than enough currently unused land in Southern Europe alone to meet demand, with plenty of additional opportunity in Central Europe. For transport, the product would have to be pressed dry and pelletized or else, broken down enzymatically and filtered for delivery in pipelines (e.g. using Tesla pumps).
Note that the low-hanging fruit is producing raw biomass that can be used for heating and electricity generation, displacing fossil coal and gas, even wood pellets. Species that are able to produce unusually high quantities of starch or fatty acids are sought after for fuel production but substantially harder to manage.
Posted by: Rafael Seidl | 05 April 2008 at 06:07 AM
It is nice to see you mention Tesla pumps. It is a good simple design that can pump many types of fluids and slurry well.
Posted by: sjc | 05 April 2008 at 09:28 AM