I still can't figure out why US VMT dropped 4.3% in March and gasoline consumption only dropped 1%. Everyone left their Prius in the garage and drove their Expedition? Something doesn't add up.

Maybe it's because people are planing where they are going doggydogworld. Right now, everything's changing.

Or even a better possibility: Maybe folks will buy Cordless Lawnmowers

Has the number of people driving reduced, or have the same number of people started driving less?

Either way, I guess $4 gas is finally having an effect.

The sampling period may have been too short. Basically, fuel consumption drop should be very close to travel distance change.

With more hybrids + high fuel cost, fuel consumption should drop faster than travel distance, not less.

That survey does not make sense.

Patrik:

Your point is well taken, but with many thousands larger vehicles unsold, I was lead to believe that their numbers, on the road, would also be reduced. Apparently, this is not the case yet.

If gas @ $4+ does not do it, the time may be right to add a progressive 5 cents/gal/month Fed. carbon tax before oil goes to $150/$200 barrel. Registration fees could be multiplied by 10x for vehicles above 3500 lbs.

Very rich people will always drive 380+hp, 3-Ton Hummers if they feel like it. All we can do, is to make them pay much more for it.

Sorry but even with the lower income = smaller car driving less it doesn't make sense. For one - hypermiling is all over the news. I see people driving slower all the time now. Still see SUV's going 75 mph but there are plenty of people clogging the right lane.

There are also people with choices in what they drive. Wife drives SUV, husband drives sedan. Wife drives farther so they switch at the higher prices.

Another example - guy drives truck 40 miles to work. Does the math - saves more on gas than car payment for new Civic Hybrid. Truck sits - HCH commutes.

These are my personal world examples - YMMV

Even if this wasn't it - do you really get 4.3% less mileage and 1% less gas would mean it was all 50 mpg cars off the road and 12.5 mpg staying on the road. With no change in driving habits. Show me a lower income person with a perfectly maintained Metro getting 50 mpg - there might be 2000 of these people in a country of 100,000,000 cars.

Now - truck mileage is down probably 5% and that is all diesel. So maybe diesel use is down 5%? That could give you 0.5% on the total VMT.

This graph shows massive change compared to its previous trend. The july 1990 to march 1991 recession (-3.0%) is just visible but this new behavior is really something. Currently the US is still not in a recession. The last 2 quarters were weak but positive. With evidence like this it could look like the US will hit negative growth this quarter and perhaps the next one as well. It isn’t over for the US yet but global economic growth is still quite healthy. It would help if the Chinese started to spend more of their huge surplus. I hope they see that this is a good time to do exactly that.

Please read the article and the verbiage under the graphs. The VMT graph is a 12-month average, probably what is called a rolling average. That is why the gasoline and miles don't match.

Sorry, NCyder, but the 4.3% reduction is a one month number. The graph shows 12 month moving average but the 4.3% VMT drop is March 2008 vs. March 2007. Note Easter was in March this year vs. April last year, not sure what effect that had.

Feb and Apr 2008 gasoline consumption was actually higher than 2007 according to early data. This is simply not consistent with the graph and I can't figure out the difference. Someone suggested the VMT drop is mostly diesel, which is a good thought, but diesel VMT is much lower than gasoline in this country so the drop in diesel VMT would have to be huge to effect the overall number this much. And if diesel VMT dropped so much why has the cost of diesel risen even faster than gasoline?

It still doesn't add up.

Guys you are missing the point here (apart from Henrick) ... this graph is showing the vmt for the past 25 YEARS and this change in trend of such a massive scale has never been seen before in the past, even through recessions. The break in the trend has started 3 years ago, as no one would have anticipated, and is quite timed with the beginning of the exponential increase in oil prices ... and you are asking why the change in vmt in March is different from the change in fuel consumption?

Both China and India subsidize gasoline and diesel, so they're not seeing the price increases we are. I have read that some developing nations--like Indonesia--are decreasing their fuel subsidies to to the high prices. If China does the same, the demand picture will change significantly.

I am seeing reduced speed, reduced traffic and increased transit ridership. I htink the numbers are about to take a big plunge.

Gerald,

People wont even blink about using gas lawn equipment. At worst the typical home owner is only going to use 2-3 gallons of gas to mow their lawns.

MasterCard has been saying that the demand drop is about 5%, based on their credit card usage. That would be more inline with this.

I've really noticed less traffic on the roads lately. And people driving behind (fewer) semi trucks. I'm pretty certain we're in a recession now. Ford reports that full-sized pickup trucks dropped from 11% to 9% of sales in a single month.