Dutch Agency Says China Contributed Two-Thirds of 2007’s Increase in CO2 Emissions; US the Top Emitter per Person
13 June 2008
CO2 emissions by region. Click to enlarge. Data: PBL |
In 2007, global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel use and cement production increased by 3.1%, following a 3.5% increase in 2006. An analysis by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, PBL) estimates that with a national increase of 8% in 2007, China’s CO2 emissions accounted for two-thirds of the 2007 global increase.
Smaller contributions were made by India, the US and the Russian Federation, in contrast to the European Union (EU-15), where a relatively warm winter and high fuel prices led to a 2% decrease in CO2 emissions. The increase in emissions in 2007 of about 800 million metric tons of CO2 was mainly due to a 4.5% increase in global coal consumption, to which China contributed more than 70%.
PBL now estimates that China’s CO2 emissions are about 14% higher than those from the USA, putting it at the top of the list of CO2 emitting countries with about a quarter share in global CO2 emissions (24%), followed by the USA (21%), the EU-15 (12%), India (8%) and the Russian Federation (6%). Together, these represent 71% of the total of global CO2 emissions.
Since population size and level of economic development differ considerably between countries, ranking by emissions per person shows a very different order. The top 5 in metric tons of CO2 per person are: USA (19.4), Russia (11.8), EU-15 (8.6), China (5.1 ) and India (1.8).
Of all industrial processes, the cement clinker production process is the largest source of CO2, apart from fossil fuel use. It contributes around 5% to the total of global CO2 emissions from fuel use and industrial activities.
With a production increase of 10% in 2007, China now has a share in global cement production of about 51%.
Cement manufacturing is responsible for almost 20% of the total of China’s CO2 emissions, including those from fuel combustion for heating the kilns. After the earthquake which recently hit the Sichuan province, it may be expected that the rebuilding of houses and roads for over 5 million people will cause the cement demand to soar even further, PBL said.
High oil prices of recent years have had their impact on oil consumption, causing that of the OECD countries to fall by 0.9% in 2007. In Europe, a relatively warm winter and high fuel prices have had a mitigating effect on CO2 emissions, which decreased by about 2% last year. In 2006, CO2 emissions from the EU-15 remained constant, which was confirmed in a recent report by the EEA, which compiled data from the 15 original Member States.
In the USA, relatively cold winter and warm summer temperatures in 2007, combined with a decline in non-fossil-fuelled electricity generation, resulted in increases in CO2 emissions from space heating and cooling. Overall, in the USA in 2007, CO2 emissions increased by 1.8%, compared to 2006.
Methodology, data and uncertainties. PBL compiled the estimated using the most recent data on fossil fuel consumption from the BP Review of Energy 2007 (BP, 2008) and cement production data through 2007, published by the US Geological Survey (USGS). The CO2 estimates for 2006 and 2007 were compiled by PBL, using the detailed national CO2 emission estimates for energy use through 2005, compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007), estimates for flaring and venting through 2004, compiled by CDIAC, supplemented with data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), national submissions to the UN Climate Secretariat (UNFCCC) and data from the Global Gas Flaring Reduction partnership (GGFR) for 2004/2005 and own estimates for CO2 emissions from cement clinker production.
The estimates of CO2 emissions do not include CO2 emissions from deforestation/logging and are calculated using default CO2 emission factors, recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). CO2 emissions from underground coal fires in China and elsewhere and the peat fires and peat emissions from dehydration in Indonesia are not included, either.
The magnitude of these sources is very uncertain; according to recent research, annual CO2 emissions from coal fires are estimated at 150-450 megaton CO2 in China and 400-5,000 megaton CO2 from peat in Indonesia. Though significant, being highly uncertain, CO2 emissions from the decay of organic materials of plants and trees, which remain after forest burning and logging, are also not included.
The energy data annually published by BP, appears to be reasonably accurate, according to PBL. Based on older BP energy data, the increase in 2005 in global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion was estimated at 3.3%, globally. With presently available and more detailed statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2005, the increase is now estimated at 3.2%. At country level, differences can be larger, in particular for countries with a large share in international marine fuel consumption and with a large share in non-combustion fuel use. Moreover, energy statistics for fast changing economies, such as China, are less accurate than those for the traditional, industrialized countries within the OECD.
Other recent analyses of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel use and cement production have suggested that the uncertainty of CO2 emission estimates could be about 2 to 3% for the USA and as high as 15 to 20% for China. However, the estimate for China is based on revisions of energy data for the transition period in the late 1990s, which may not be applicable to more recent energy statistics. Based on subsequent revisions of emission estimates made by the IEA, PBL estimates the uncertainty in the preliminary estimates for China—caused by uncertainty in the energy data—at about 10%.
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The bad news is that China's coal use almost doubled in the past 5 years.
The Good news is that they introduced clean coal technology and are retrofitting existing plants.
Even better news is China's wind power that has nearly doubled production every year for the last five, and now has reached 100 GW installed capacity. Coal is now expected to diminish as an energy source in China.
Posted by: John Taylor | 13 June 2008 at 09:30 AM
John Taylor: what kind of 'clean coal technology' has China introduced? If it's CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) then I'm impressed.
Posted by: JN2 | 13 June 2008 at 09:38 AM
Pres. Bush, who squashed almost all science research at Dept. of Energy for 7 years, in his last year, increased DOE funding 41% for research in 'cleaner'(not clean) coal power production. The Chinese will benefit from U.S. citizens' 'voluntary' 8 tenths of a billion dollars research as China with DOE help, build 1000 coal-fired energy plants. Hope Bush will have a nice retirement via China & U.S. citizens 'gifts'.
I am also impressed. Not by CCS, but by George Bush's continued audacity.
Posted by: litesong | 13 June 2008 at 10:17 AM
@litesong,
I don't know where you obtain your information, but you really ought to consider upgrading to better sources.
The Bush administration may be criticised on several fronts, but energy policy is not one of them, except on short term energy changes, which he was unable to force.
But that was not for lack of trying there too; as the more liberal of our congress-critters blocked drilling in the US, on the East Coast, the West Coast, the Eastern Caribbean, the Rockies and Alaska, to add to short term less than 10 year supply for a while. Until long term alternatives are available, and we know those are coming.
The Li-Ion battery research was financed by the US ABC, a Bush industry consortia, that brought significant advances to battery technology and making the electrified auto a real alternative.
The Bush administration painfully recreated the ITER international consortia and doubled the membership to build the last Fusion experiment before building fusion power plants.
The Clinton administration reneged on its international commitment and it had collapsed. That is a great way to win foreign friends and influence people, leaving them in the lurch.
No sooner did the wonderful liberals take power in Congress and they temporarily zeroed out research money for ITER, one again. Not on its merits, but in a debate over Iraq war-funding, while double crossing our allies once again.
But then liberals are reknowned for their constancy and reliability, to stand by friends in difficult times.
Mr. Bush cajoled the Nuclear Plant builders to spend $ multi-billions of their own money, with a few dollars of government carrots, to develop GEN III+ LWR nuclear plants, removing most of the uncertainties and warts from the technology. The Westinghouse AP-1000 and the GE ESBWR would never have been designed without the Bush effort.
The Bush adminstration fought for and reformed the licensing laws, and has been having the NRC pre-certifying nuclear "standard designs" to reduce plant building time by 5-8 years, cutting costs, and starting a clean non CO2, Nuclear Renaissance. That renaissance, with some 34 large plants in the pipeline, will almost double US electric generation with clean, non CO2 Nuclear electric generation by 2016.
Just as the electric auto fleets arrive on the scene, needing clean charging methods. Simply closing down old antiquated coal plants as the new nukes come on line, will reduce overall US CO2 emissions by almost 12% nationally. That, by the way, would meet US Kyoto "targets" all by itself. But even before that the US has the best record for reducing CO2, than all the other major countries, including the most vociferous critics about CO2 have done themselves.
The super antiquated coal plants to be shutdown, are very dirty. They were grand-fathered in when the emissions system was put in place under Nixon, Ford and Carter. Under the law if no major upgrade is made, they don't have to be cleaned up, and most were not, as a consequence.
So their closure will result in an out-sized reduction in real pollutants like soot, mercury, toxic hydrocarbons, SO2, NOx, et cetera.
Criticize Mr. Bush on other things, if you wish, but his energy policies have been thoughtful, consistent, comprehensive, and by and large successful.
Posted by: stas peterson | 13 June 2008 at 11:23 AM
John Taylor wrote: "Coal is now expected to diminish as an energy source in China."
This does not jive with what I've read. They are still expanding coal use, and whatever 'clean coal' they are introducing does not include carbon sequestration as far as I have read.
In short, China is running away as the leader in greenhouse gas emissions, and it is a major problem. I see little reason for the optimism you express.
Where in the world did you get the figure that they have 100 GW of installed wind capacity?
This article (http://www.reportlinker.com/p090119/China-Wind-Power-Equipment-Industry-Report-2007-2008.html ) says they have 6 GW installed. Big difference.
Posted by: BenSolar | 13 June 2008 at 11:30 AM
The US has a great record for reducing its CO2 emissions.
Unfortunately the main cause of this reduction has been the downturn in the economy. American CO2 emissions have simply been exported along with American manufacturing jobs. Worst yet, those manufacturing jobs seem to have gone to countries with the least controls on pollution.
You're giving China a bad rap because it's doing your polluting for you. Too bad that when you import all the goods you use to make you're not importing you CO2 emissions as well.
Posted by: ai_vin | 13 June 2008 at 12:24 PM
BTW When I say "countries with the least controls on pollution" I include 'Alberta'
To feed the American addiction to oil we have increased our CO2 emissions almost 30% to dig out THE dirtiest oil on the planet.
Posted by: ai_vin | 13 June 2008 at 12:30 PM
stas peterson
Excellent comments, you're continuing effort to keep the Liberals, Socialist, Communists and wackos from dominating this site is greatly appreciated!
Posted by: rca | 13 June 2008 at 12:45 PM
China is building 2 new coal plants a week. That does not sound like "a diminishing energy source." Face it: China is stuck with "growth at any cost." China has to keep turning "cash from exports" into improvements in living conditions for average citizens in China. Otherwise China goes "poof!"
An interesting dynamic to watch is how the high cost of oil impacts China's ability to maintain increasing export volumes. China subsidizes fuel costs for its own citizens and industry, but how long can it continue to do so?
Posted by: Al Fin | 13 June 2008 at 01:29 PM
"The Bush administration may be criticised on several fronts, but energy policy is not one of them"
Oh Oh ... Stan's on another planet again.
Posted by: Neil | 13 June 2008 at 02:22 PM
Americans need to stop imports from China.
This will reduce the CO2 production in China, improve the US trade deficit and fix the credit crisis.
What are you waiting for? Can't you buy American? Don't you love your country? Can't you save your money like the rest of the world?
Why don't Americans work on their efficiency instead of constantly playing the blame game:
US the Top Emitter/Person
Why don't Americans work on their solar hot water capacity instead of constantly playing the blame game:
China solar hot water capacity: 64.5%
USA solar hot water capacity: 1.7%
http://www.ren21.net/pdf/RE2007_Global_Status_Report.pdf
Btw, did the socialist Clinton adminstration run the Dollar down or who's responsible?
Too weak for self-criticism?
Posted by: Realist | 13 June 2008 at 02:23 PM
Interesting data:
http://www.iaea.org/inisnkm/nkm/aws/eedrb/data/US-encc.html
US Energy consumption per capita: 99622.55 kWh
US electricity consumption per capita: 13228.00 kWh
US nuclear electricity production: 19.6 %
Nuclear energy covers 2.6% of total US energy consumption.
Do you intend to build a thousand additional nuclear power plants? What about efficiency instead:
http://www.iaea.org/inisnkm/nkm/aws/eedrb/data/CN-encc.html
China Energy consumption per capita: 10220.93 kWh
Posted by: IAEA | 13 June 2008 at 02:38 PM
"Emissions/person" is a flawed metric if not adjusted for GDP. Yes the U.S. has the highest energy consumption per capita and therefore the largest emissions but; when calcualting CO2 emissions or energy consumption per $ of GDP the U.S. is by no means the worse. It is about a third of the way down the list. Don't get me wrong, there is plenty of room for improvement and there is no excuse for inaction; but blindly labeling it as the sorse offender is just U.S. bashing. Specialy when considering that almnost every other country in the world has a trade surplus with the U.S. and to a certain extent makes a bit of its living of the U.S.'s economy.
Posted by: Victor Barreto | 13 June 2008 at 02:40 PM
Btw, the goods produced in China for American consumers payed by credit cards financed by foreign money are run by Chinese coal power plants.
If China produces all the consumer goods for the American market, isn't it a little odd that Americans still have the highest emissions per capita. After all the emissions for the American goods were produced in China and not in the US?
What would the US emissions per capita be, if the US would produce all their consumers goods themselves with American coal power plants?
Again, what socialist ran the Dollar down?
Posted by: Realist | 13 June 2008 at 02:51 PM
ai_vin:
Yes, it is a well known (voluntarily unpublished) fact that China requires two new power plants a week to produce all the goods they manufacture for us. If this trend goes on for another 15 to 25 years, our manufactured goods and associated GHG may be much closer to zero.
Who will be the winner and looser?
High pollution Alberta tar sand oil extractioin is another similar story. At least, wind normally blows in the right direction.
Victor:
GHG per GDP $$ is also flawed. How can you compare GHG from Microsoft versus car parts factories in China?
Posted by: HarveyD | 13 June 2008 at 03:59 PM
@Stan Peterson
Re: But that was not for lack of trying there too; as the more liberal of our congress-critters blocked drilling in the US, on the East Coast, the West Coast, the Eastern Caribbean, the Rockies and Alaska, to add to short term less than 10 year supply for a while. Until long term alternatives are available, and we know those are coming.
Either you are a political pulpit of the Bush regime, or have been effectively brainwashed by the Conservative Bush flunkies (i.e. Rush Limbaugh) of big oil.
It is becoming more commonly known that the five major oil companied have only exercised 25% of all the outstanding oil drilling leases awarded by the federal government over the last 40 years. Some of these leases have lain dormant for 30 years. In more detail, 68 million acres onshore and offshore that are being leased by big oil companies, but not used to produce energy. These inactive leases allow the 5 majors to claim this undeveloped oil as reserves with enhances their stock price. Why open more leases when there is .75 that lay fallow?
The Federal oil lease program is a disaster the current Democratic congress will correct.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/09/business/09royalty.html
Future Democratic bills will establish an increasing rate structure for inactive oil leases. The 5 major companies will either drill on the leased properties or lose the shirts.
Emanuel, Hinchey, Markey, Rahall to Introduce Legislation to Force Big Oil to Use Owned Leases
This Democratic sponsored bill will put and end to the propaganda that has mislead the American people for so long.
Posted by: Axil | 13 June 2008 at 07:48 PM
Harvey:
The GDP comparisson is not flawed, the fact of the matter is that the U.S. has a higher economic output and this has to be included in the estimation of energy consumption per capita. The U.S. also has dirty industries and China also has none polluting economic activities. Under your line of thinking we could also an extremely poor country with next to 0 economic activity is very clean, even if its people are starving.
But if you want to blame the U.S. for its pollution and for the pollution others create on its behalf (never mind they make money of the U.S. for it) then I do not see the point in discussing anything, it does not matter always damn the U.S. right? Besides other countries also buy from China, they should be as guilty of shipping their emissions elsewehere shouldn't they, even if the quantities are smaller?
We are all on the same boat. We all use energy, we all pollute and most people and countries in the world sell to and make money from the U.S. (me included). Shure the U.S. can do a lot better in energy efficiency; but so can all other countries in their own way
By the way I am not an American and I do not live in the U.S.
Posted by: Victor Barreto | 13 June 2008 at 07:50 PM
"... Since population size and level of economic development differ considerably between countries, ranking by emissions per person shows a very different order. The top 5 in metric tons of CO2 per person are: USA (19.4), Russia (11.8), EU-15 (8.6), China (5.1 ) and India (1.8). ..."
I think it is most interesting to look at the 'emission per person' country numbers so that you can approximately correlate a person's lifestyle within a given country to emission numbers.
However, the key question goes unanswered (as far as I could deduce): what is the 'emission per person' number that is 'allowed' for every person on earth (if we consider that all 6+ billion people obviously deserve a basic, dignified existence) so that we can keep the atmospheric level of CO2 down to what many agree would be a reasonably tolerable level (450 ppm). I am guessing that it would be far less than the EU's 8.6 tonnes per person. So where does that leave us? What lifestyle would we be allowed if the 'tolerable' emissions per person is half of the EU lifestyle? Is that a life worth living?
Posted by: Jer | 13 June 2008 at 09:06 PM
@Stan Peterson
RE: The Bush administration painfully recreated the ITER international consortia and doubled the membership to build the last Fusion experiment before building fusion power plants.
The Clinton administration reneged on its international commitment and it had collapsed. That is a great way to win foreign friends and influence people, leaving them in the lurch.
No sooner did the wonderful liberals take power in Congress and they temporarily zeroed out research money for ITER, one again. Not on its merits, but in a debate over Iraq war-funding, while double crossing our allies once again.
But then liberals are reknowned for their constancy and reliability, to stand by friends in difficult times.
I don’t know what reality you live in but it is not the real one. But more likely you are a republican propagandist who is spellbound by the dribble propagated by Rush Limbaugh.
True, reasoned, and critical thinking is devoid of party politics and the promulgation of false facts either intentionally or through mindless adherence to rote party doctrinaire.
Is your intent to convince or is it a mindless recitation of ingrained conservative mass media dribble?
These are the true facts about Bush science politics.
Reference:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Biztech/20085/
Excerpt:
For most of 2007, as Congress and the Bush administration debated the federal budget, support was strong from both parties for significantly increasing funding for three federal agencies that support the lion's share of basic research in the physical sciences: the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Science. Indeed, the president's proposed budget included increased funding for these agencies, as part of a plan to double investment in physical-sciences research over the next 10 years. And early appropriations bills met these targets. But veto threats and one actual veto related to a cap on domestic spending imposed by President Bush kept these bills from becoming law.
Instead, a catch-all appropriations bill was passed in late December, with last-minute cuts that eliminated not only the proposed increases to these agencies, but also funding for some programs within these agencies. The cuts caught researchers by surprise just before the holidays and sent directors of at least two national labs scrambling to find ways to deal with the unexpected shortfalls. As a result of the cuts, hundreds of researchers at Fermilab, in Batavia, IL, and at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), in Menlo Park, CA, will be laid off.
To avoid a Bush veto that exceeding the Bush limit on domestic spending would bring, the congress was forced to cut deeply into US science.
And yet, we spend two billion dollars a day for a war to advance Bush’s place in the pantheon of presidents
This excerpt deals with ITER as follows:
Another important project, a proposed demonstration of nuclear fusion--called ITER--was slated to receive $160 million in federal funding this year; instead, it received no funding.
If funding had been constant, Hutchinson says, "we could have been at this stage 10 years ago." He calls the current cuts a "complete disaster" in terms of the message it conveys to the international community. "It's completely reversing ourselves from what we've been saying the last four years," he says, given that United States officials have publicly supported the project.
If Bush wanted this science funding then why did he sign the bill? The answer is he needed a scapegoat to take the blame for the cuts while still achieving his political goal: gut science!
Once again, the veto threat, the ultimate conservative bludgeon of power, gutted American support for ITER to our shame before the world.
Posted by: Axil | 13 June 2008 at 09:16 PM
Axil:
Oil extraction infrastructure is extremely expensive. So, oil companies do not spend 10 B$ to build infrastructure to suck particular oil field dry in 5 years (BTW, it hurts cumulative recovery). Instead, they build oil infrastructure for 3 B$ and exploit oil field for 20 years, meanwhile exploring adjacent leased areas to discover more oil and prolong useful life of their initial 3 B$ investment another decade or two.
So yes, oil companies do not drill on 100% of their leases. This is how oil is extracted worldwide. Your sources are knowingly misleading you.
Posted by: Andrey Levin | 14 June 2008 at 12:03 AM
Andrey, what you've said is only an explanation for why companies might say they aren't developing fields on leases they hold (i.e., they aren't economically recoverable now). Axil and his "sources" seem to be questioning that assertion by saying if there isn't anything there then give it back. Don't complain about us opening up additional land while you are sitting on 75 percent of available leases. Seems to be an equally informed position.
Posted by: Andy | 14 June 2008 at 08:58 AM
To read that "Bush administration as a comprehensive energy policy" is not only laughable but also scary.
What is Bush admninistration energy policy : corn ethanol (the stupidest thing ever)? the denial of the waiver to califirnia ? new CAFE standards that will never take effect because secheduled for 2020 ? an administartion corrupted by the lobbyes of cars and oil ? the war of iraque ? no action taken for energy efficiency, almost no investment in wind and solar, pushing for drilling in the ANWR? funding reduced for the NRE ?
glorious track of record indeed...
Bush administration has no clue about energy, so certainly not a comprehensive policy.
So Stan Peterson: to go in bed with Bush is one thing, to claim is the best lover is another, you will have hard time to convice us of the later.
Posted by: Treehugger | 14 June 2008 at 09:57 AM
Andy:
I probably did not explain it clear enough.
Example. Oil company discovers oil in area A. Couple of years it searches for additional oil and leases additional adjacent areas B, C, D. Than it builds infrastructure for 3 billion $ (pipelines, terminals, etc.) and exploit area A for 5 years. When production from area A begin to decline, it moves gradually to area B, and maintain infrastructure utilization rate at 100% for another 7 years, then moves to area C, and in another 10 years to area D. Meanwhile, it leases additional areas E and F. In any particular moment only fraction of leased areas are exploited. This way oil company utilizes initial investment of 3 billion in infrastructure at full capacity for 30+ years.
In order to exploit all leases, oil company should build infrastructure for 18 billion (to exploit areas A,B,C,D,E,F simultaneously), and in 5-7 years dismantle it all. Such practice is terribly uneconomical, wasteful, and will have footprint many times bigger.
Oil company could choose to lease only area A, and lease area B in 5 years. But this is too risky: in five years competitor could overbid it, conditions of lease could change, or somebody will designate it as (A)NWAR.
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Posted by: Istvan Holbok | 15 June 2008 at 07:10 AM
Republican: All we need is to drill (everywhere), build more refineries, build more nuke plants and use *cough* clean coal to satisfy our energy needs.
Democrat: All we need is to use less energy (per person and industry) and invest in cleaner, renewable energy sources to satisfy our energy needs.
Truth: The former is not a solution to our short or intermediate term energy needs. Further, it's not sustainable long-term (except for nuclear).
The latter is a plausible short term solution but in the intermediate and long-term is dependent on technologic advances that are far from guaranteed.
Unfortuantely, ideologues like Bush can scarcely comprehend the notion of solutions focused on sustainability either as a fiscal or environmental factor. The foundation of the Bush administration energy policy was not fusion or any other next generation technology. The Energy Task Force came up with: 1) drill ANWR, 2) drill the coasts, 3) burn more coal, 4) nuke plants galore, 5) 'secure' Middle East and African sources of crude, 6) invest in electricity transmission infrastructure (arguably a good thing) and 7) weaken any environmental regulation that would stand in the way of 'progress'.
Posted by: TCB | 16 June 2008 at 08:44 PM