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IEA: Despite Some Weakening Demand, Oil Market Will Remain Tight Over the Medium Term

Mtomr2
Distillates (jet fuel, kerosene, diesel and other gasoil) will remain the main growth drivers of world oil demand, followed by LPG and naphtha (mostly used as petrochemical feedstocks) and gasoline. Click to enlarge.

Despite a weakening in demand in the OECD due to weaker economic growth projections and a doubling of oil prices over the past year, ongoing supply constraints, refinery limitations and continued demand growth in key emerging markets will contribute to a tight market over the medium term (to 2013), according to the Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR 2008) just published by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The current high prices in the market are primarily due to demand-supply fundamentals, not to speculation, according to the report.

Poor supply-side performance since 2004, in the face of strong demand pressures from developing countries, has forced oil prices up sharply to curb demand. These pressures have been exacerbated by refinery tightness, which limits the flexibility of the industry to meet the structurally strong demand growth for middle distillate fuel. While recognising that speculation can have a day-to-day impact on price moves, the fact that all producers are working virtually flat out and that there is no sign of any abnormal stockbuild gives a strong indication that current oil prices are justified by fundamentals. Similarly, while high forward prices may reflect concerns about peak oil or sustained demand growth, they too could only impact spot prices if they started to create a forward price premium sufficient to encourage stockbuilding.

—MTOMR 20008

Oil demand remains concentrated in developing economies, with 90% of the growth spread between Asia, South America and the Middle East over the five years of the forecast. Of this, China and India account for almost half. MTOMR projects global demand for oil products will grow by an average of 1.6% per year to 2013, from 86.9 mb/d in 2008 to 94.1 mb/d. Demand growth will be weakest in the first two years of the period, building as global GDP growth strengthens from 2010 on. This pattern is “diametrically opposed” to the trends in supply.

By contrast, demand growth in OECD countries is expected to contract slightly over the next five years, albeit with modest growth continuing to be seen in the transportation sector. Globally, growth is concentrated in a small number of products, particularly middle distillates, and those associated with the petrochemicals industry (NGLs and naphtha), providing an ongoing technological challenge to the refining industry.

—MTOMR 2008

Transportation, the MTOMR notes, will remain the main driver of world oil demand growth in the medium term. Transportation fuel demands increases by almost 2% per year on average over the forecast period, with their share of total oil demand rising slightly, from 58% in 2008 to 59% in 2013.

By the end of the forecast period, global oil demand will be almost evenly split between OECD and non-OECD countries. Non-OECD demand will account for almost 49% of total global demand in 2013, compared with 36% in 1996, because of much faster growth when compared to OECD countries. Non-OECD demand could for the first time ever surpass consumption in mature economies by around 2015.

Mtomr1
World supply capacity growth. Click to enlarge. Source: MTOMR 2008

On the supply side, growth from a concentration of new project start-ups during 2008-2010, allied to weaker economic growth, sees potential spare capacity rise in excess of 4 mb/d. However, this expansion slows from 2011 onwards when global demand growth recovers, leading to a narrowing of spare capacity to minimal levels by 2013.

Since the 2007 MTOMR, the IEA made significant downward revisions to both non-OPEC supplies and OPEC capacity forecasts. Project delays averaging 12 months, coupled with global average decline of 5.2%— up from 4% last year—are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady.

Non-OPEC crude supply will remain at or below 39 mb/d over the next five years, with the majority of the 1.2 mb/d of non-OPEC liquids growth coming from NGLs, condensates and biofuels.

An anticipated 8.8 mb/d of crude distillation capacity will be added to the refinery system by 2013. However, with costs doubling over the past five years, planned expansions are put under regular financial scrutiny and projects are subject to ongoing slippage and are vulnerable to changes in refining margins. With 48% of global product demand growth over the next five years concentrated in middle distillate fuels, generating sufficient product to meet demand will continue to be a challenge, according to the report. Further, investment in upgrading capacity will lead to tighter fuel oil markets and will expose the heavy end of the barrel to strong additional pressures from tight LNG and coal markets.

Although biofuels will add to supply growth, increasing from 1.35 mb/d in 2008 to 1.95 mb/d by 2013, announced capacity additions may be difficult to achieve given available feedstock and growing concerns due to rising food prices.

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Comments

Lulu

Of course there is rampant oil speculations going on. When oil price goes up by $11 in a single day as witnessed recently, the degree of speculation is easily seen.

If we ask ourselves who would benefit most from speculation and a higher oil price, the right answer is "Big Oil".

It is funny now we get all these oil funded groups saying there is no speculation. In fact, this is Enron f**king all over again.

Eletruk

I don't believe it has anything to do with supply or demand. Demand is down, there are 30 billion barrels of Iraqi oil sitting in supertankers in the Persian Gulf that nobody wants. Speculation on the other hand has huge amounts of money in the market that previously were part of the equation. Sure big oil profits, but it's not because of anything they are doing, they are running 'business as usual'. I know if I was getting this kind of windfall without doing anything, I would not want to make any changes.

Joseph

Short term, yes Big Oil is benefiting the most. However, the green lobby isn't doing to bad either. Billions are being dumped in new tech. Farmers are getting record prices for their crops. I went to buy a wind turbine, was told if I paid today he could have one for me in about 5 months. Automakers may not be selling many trucks but there selling tons of cars.

A bunch of companies are doing great, the working class are the ones taking in the shorts.

Reality Czech
there are 30 billion barrels of Iraqi oil sitting in supertankers in the Persian Gulf that nobody wants.
That is nearly 5 cubic kilometres of oil, and roughly the world's annual consumption. Do you seriously think that so much tanker capacity even exists?
Anne

Reality Czech,

Don't waste your effort. Conspiracy theories are inextinguishable.

Cervus

I think there's a variation of English here. In some places billion = million. I think he's referring to the Iranian oil stored on tankers from last April.

allen_xl_z

Cervus,
~30 million (30,000,000) bbl of heavy and sour Iranian crude sounds about right.

James White

Peak oil is here folks. Get used to it.


"The current high prices in the market are primarily due to demand-supply fundamentals, not to speculation, according to the report."


"... global average decline of 5.2%— up from 4% last year—are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady."

Treehugger

Anne

Your are right conspiracy theory are inextinguishable, just because there are an easy fix to put the blame on someone else rather than changing our own behavior, sadly.

James

yes "peak oil" or rather "plateau oil" is here, but you know, peak oil happen in 1971 in US, but still to day (37 years after...) there is serious economist who still argue that if oil peaked in US it's only because the oil was cheapper to buy elsewhere.

admitting peak oil requires such a tremendous change of mind for most of people that they just can't figure it out. Price at the pump will be the answer, enjoy your V8
...

Axil

Oil demand remains concentrated in developing economies, with 90% of the growth spread between Asia, South America and the Middle East over the five years of the forecast. Of this, China and India account for almost half.

An unintended consequence of all the corporate outsourcing, prolific buying of cheap Asian goods, and frantic investment by predator capitalists is sufficient wealth in developing countries to buy cars.

The question in my mind is what does Asians, South Americans, and Middle Easterners want with cars?

Neil

It looks like the IEA has finally "gotten real" and has finally stopped just projecting supply graphs into the future. While the medium term projections aren't very rosy, the short term numbers (to 2010) are encouraging. Over all, if these numbers are correct, it looks more like we're in "peak lite" right now rather than actual peak. Given that many of the alternatives to oil (like PHEVs) currently in the pipe aren't due till 2010, it's good news that we will limp through until then.

Reality Czech

Anne, I am not wasting my time. I am addressing myself to the troll, but speaking to the people who may read this and not have the knowledge to see it as nonsense.

stas peterson

Who profits from high oil prices?

Big oil is less than 10% of the oil bidness. Politicians who control the nationalized oil companies and their record PROFITs And they control 90% of the oil bidness.

They also profit from the taxes on Oil product. Higher prices means more taxes.

And being truly greedy these altruistic political bastards propose more taxes "ie. windfall profit taxes" which benefits who? ...the greedy politician bastards...

Bob Bastard

The question in my mind is what does Asians, South Americans, and Middle Easterners want with cars?

To drive would be my guess.

Axil

@ Bob Bastard


Yan Yizhou, a 32-year-old sales manager, got his driver's license six years ago, and traded up last year to a jeep. Sport-utility vehicles are hugely popular, and many Chinese are now spending their vacations on road trips that involve nothing more than countless days of endless driving.


"More and more people will choose jeeps, which are suitable for driving in the countryside," said Yan, who belongs to another of Beijing's hundreds of car clubs. "When your salary reaches a certain standard, you can buy a car and taste the fun of it."


…..populous China, Yan insisted, cars would connect strangers.


"People who live far away from you who are not supposed to appear in your life will be brought into your life. Car clubs are a good place to meet new friends," he said. "And on your way somewhere, you will probably meet some broken-down cars and you will stop to help them."

Axil

@ Bob Bastard

Chinese life is a portrait of the rapidly expanding role of cars in the fast-changing ways in which China’s people socialize, marry, raise families and, possibly, die.


Chinese put 46-year-old farmer, and his wife secretly hoped a car would improve the odds of their sons, then 22 and 24, of finding girlfriends, marrying and producing grandchildren.

Axil

“Without this car, my two sons wouldn’t be able to find mates

Axil

Sorry spam filter problem

The question in my mind is what does Asians, South Americans, and Middle Easterners want with cars?

Reference:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/business/worldbusiness/24firstcar.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Excerpt:

What emerges is a portrait of the rapidly expanding role of cars in the fast-changing ways in which China’s people socialize, marry, raise families and, possibly, die.
Li Rifu packed a lot of emotional freight into his first car. Mr. Li, a 46-year-old farmer and watch repairman, and his wife secretly hoped a car would improve the odds of their sons, then 22 and 24, of finding girlfriends, marrying and producing grandchildren.

“Without this car, my two sons wouldn’t be able to find wives,” he said, recalling that when he courted his wife in the early 1980s, he needed only a bicycle. He ruined a half-dozen tires carrying her on the back of the bicycle for their outings

His next goal is to buying a bigger, more impressive car than the compact he had to sell.


Reference:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/20/AR2008012002388.html

Excerpt:
Yan Yizhou, a 32-year-old sales manager, got his driver's license six years ago, and traded up last year to a jeep. Sport-utility vehicles are hugely popular, and many Chinese are now spending their vacations on road trips that involve nothing more than countless days of endless driving.
"More and more people will choose jeeps, which are suitable for driving in the countryside," said Yan, who belongs to another of Beijing's hundreds of car clubs. "When your salary reaches a certain standard, you can buy a car and taste the fun of it."
…..populous China, Yan insisted, cars would connect strangers.
"People who live far away from you who are not supposed to appear in your life will be brought into your life. Car clubs are a good place to meet new friends," he said. "And on your way somewhere, you will probably meet some broken-down cars and you will stop to help them."

The whole family chooses the car together. I can read the eagerness in their faces," said Xing Chuang, who has owned the Huizhongtong Automobile Trade Co. for a dozen years. "They pay attention to every detail of the car. After they take it home, they get up several times every night to see if their cars are okay."

The central point of life for the newly affluent of the third world is the car.

God Help Us!

Roy

Axil,

I can hardly believe your arrogance. First, you bash capitalists as "predators" then you amazingly contradict yourself by talking about the new "unintended" affluence of the workers that the capitalists are hiring! What inconsistency of thought! Why shouldn't wealth and its concommitant benefits be spread to Asia, South America, and the Middle East? And, by the way, as the wealth of these societies increases, they will be better able, and more interested in, preserving the environment. Its a natural progression.

Axil

@ Roy


I can hardly believe your arrogance


Au contraire, I am very humble and objective. I call it as I see it.


First, you bash capitalists as "predators" then you amazingly contradict yourself by talking about the new "unintended" affluence of the workers that the capitalists are hiring!

The "predators" capitalists are looking for the cheapest labor rates they can find world wide. In no way are their motives altruistic.

The Chinese are like car crazy teen-agers willing to sink every dime they earn into fossil fuel consumption which is subsidized by the Chinese government.

What inconsistency of thought!


The inconsistency you see is rooted in your invalid assumptions and/or your distorted world view.

Why shouldn't wealth and its concommitant benefits be spread to Asia, South America, and the Middle East? And, by the way, as the wealth of these societies increases, they will be better able, and more interested in, preserving the environment.

As evidence of the lack of environmental concern, the Chinese government subsidizes gas consumption rather then heavily taxing it as enlightened European governments do.

Its a natural progression.

It will be a real environmental concern, when two billon Chinese car owners wander aimlessly over the Asian countryside in a constant pursuit of happy motoring.

Yes, I think that is the natural progression of a future environmental disaster.

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Mendel Potok

What in the world are you talking about? Since when did bounty hunter metal detectors get into the discussion, this is serious talk of Asian oil use and it's effect on fuel supply.

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