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Forecast: Annual Demand for Stop-Start Systems To Reach Almost 20M Units By 2015

The Strategy Analytics Automotive Electronics Service report, “Stop-Start Micro Hybrid Technologies: Winners and Losers,” predicts that annual demand for stop-start micro-hybrid systems will reach almost 20 million units by 2015, led primarily by the European market.

The report forecasts the annual growth of modified starters will reach 46% and belt-driven starter alternators will reach 35% for the period 2008 - 2015.

Stop-start systems enable fuel consumption savings and reduce harmful emissions by shutting down engines when a vehicle is stopped for traffic lights or during heavy congestion. Current systems claim to offer about 10% improvement. Bosch recently announced that it has supplied its 500,000th system to BMW (earlier post), while Valeo announced that it has agreed to supply more than a million systems to PSA Peugeot-Citroën by 2011 (earlier post).

Despite the onset of proposed Californian and European carbon dioxide mandates, and the new 35 mpg US federal requirement coming in 2020, OEMs were struggling to promote stop-start acceptance by consumers. Recent design improvements have enabled progress toward volume production, while fleet CO2 targets have encouraged car makers to pass on these economies of scale savings to consumers, and to offer stop-start as standard, as on the BMW 1-Series.

—Kevin Mak, Automotive Electronics Analyst

Comments

dollared

This is disappointing. Two reasons:

1. Every vehicle that leaves the factory without start/stop is a ten year vehicle life of wasted fuel. Lifetime consumption of a US vehicle moving from 20 to 22 MPG over 150,000 miles is nearly 700 gallons less.

2. Start/stop is a technology that would hugely benefit from scale, including moving from component part unit volumes of 1M to 10M and design-in to vehicle design and manufacturing planning. At high scale, the incremental cost could be very low, with advanced lead acid batteries and combined alternator/assist motors, and some reduced costs due to elminating belt drive from steering assist and a/c. If you could establish it as the default in vehicle assembly (damn, those are smart guys at BMW!), you might have virtually no incremental cost.

dollared

This is disappointing. Two reasons:

1. Every vehicle that leaves the factory without start/stop is a ten year vehicle life of wasted fuel. Lifetime consumption of a US vehicle moving from 20 to 22 MPG over 150,000 miles is nearly 700 gallons less.

2. Start/stop is a technology that would hugely benefit from scale, including moving from component part unit volumes of 1M to 10M and design-in to vehicle design and manufacturing planning. At high scale, the incremental cost could be very low, with advanced lead acid batteries and combined alternator/assist motors, and some reduced costs due to elminating belt drive from steering assist and a/c. If you could establish it as the default in vehicle assembly (damn, those are smart guys at BMW!), you might have virtually no incremental cost.

Henry Gibson

Full electric start-stop systems may not be the cheapest choice. The use of hydraulic pump-motors with electric valves may be very efficient and less costly. Lead batteries are low cost and even adequate for most plug-in-hybrid use. ..HG..

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