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Ice Core Studies Confirm Accuracy of Climate Models

An analysis of the global carbon cycle and climate for a 70,000-year period in the most recent Ice Age shows a strong correlation between carbon dioxide levels and abrupt changes in climate.

The findings, published 11 September in the online edition of the journal Science, shed further light on the fluctuations in greenhouse gases and climate in Earth’s past, and appear to confirm the validity of the types of computer models that are used to project a warmer climate in the future, researchers said.

We’ve identified a consistent and coherent pattern of carbon dioxide fluctuations from the past and are able to observe the correlation of this to temperature in the northern and southern hemispheres. This is a global, interconnected system of ocean and atmosphere, and data like these help us better understand how it works.

—Prof. Ed Brook, Oregon State University

The analysis was made by studying the levels of carbon dioxide and other trace gases trapped as bubbles in ancient ice cores from Antarctica.

In the last Ice Age, as during most of Earth’s history, levels of carbon dioxide and climate change are intimately linked. Carbon dioxide tends to rise when climate warms, and the higher levels of carbon dioxide magnify the warming, Brook said. These natural cycles provide a “fingerprint” of how the carbon cycle responds to climate change.

The level of atmospheric carbon dioxide today is about 385 parts per million, or more than double that of some of the lower levels during the Ice Age. These changes have taken place at a speed and magnitude that has not occurred in hundreds of thousands of years, if not longer. Past studies of ice cores have suggested that Earth’s temperature can sometimes change amazingly fast, warming as much as 15 degrees in some regions within a couple of decades.

Before humans were affecting the Earth, what we are finding is regular warm and cold cycles, which both began and ended fairly abruptly. This study supports the theory that a key driver in all this is ocean currents and circulation patterns, which created different patterns of warm and cold climates depending on the strength of various parts of the global ocean circulation system.

—Ed Brook

One of the primary circulation patterns is the meridional overturning circulation. When that current is moving large amounts of warm water from the equator to the north, it helps to warm the high latitude parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and particularly the North Atlantic region. When the system stops or dramatically slows, as it has repeatedly in the past, Greenland and Europe get much colder while the Antarctic regions become warmer, Brook said.

In every historic sequence we observed, the abrupt warming of Greenland occurred about when carbon dioxide was at maximum levels. And that was during an Ice Age, and at levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide that are far lower than those we have today.

—Ed Brook

Resources

  • Jinho Ahn and Edward J. Brook (2008) Atmospheric CO2 and Climate on Millennial Time Scales During the Last Glacial Period. Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1160832

Comments

Albert G

"...the abrupt warming of Greenland occurred about when carbon dioxide was at maximum..."

Exactly correct! Only... "about." The problem is that CO2 **lags** warming. Fascinating how "scientists" are able to reverse time!


HarveyD

Albert G:

Abrupt warming during an ice age ....or towards the end of one ... makes sense because you cannot have abrupt warming when temps are already at their peak.

When at the lowest point there's only one way to go and visa versa.

marcus

Albert what scientist every made the claim that all past warmings were triggered by CO2 changes? Moronic reasoning leads to moronic conclusions.

ejj

Correlation; NOT cause and effect (CO2 cause, warming the effect).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEJ5pHVKjiI

Sulleny

"Before humans were affecting the Earth, what we are finding is regular warm and cold cycles,"

How many more studies will it take before the AGW campers take responsibility for their exaggerations and let us all move forward to end oil addiction?

aym

The study confirms accuracy and correlation between climate and CO2 levels. Nowhere in the AGW is CO2 the sole cause of warming but it does contribute.

The AGW camp is not in any way slowing down society's oil addiction. AGW greatly magnifies the reasons for ending fossil fuel addiction and getting away from it. Even nuclear energy is using carbon dioxide linked climate change as a reason for it's use. Look at the MIT future of nuclear study.

It also says "...and the higher levels of carbon dioxide magnify the warming..."

Treehuger

The fact that manage to simulate the history of climate is quite a success to demonstrate the validity of a mathematical model. Very impressive, but it won't prevent AH like Stas Peterson to keep deniing global warming being a fraud and conspiracy oraganized by california. 130 years after the publication of the "Origins of Species" by Darwin there is still people (like Sarah Palin) who want the creationism to be taught in schools like if it was a science, and people are ready to vote for it.

arnold

Albert,
You are right to think that the CO2 is expected to rise as the global temperature rises.
This is an example of positive feedback to increase temp via polar ice cap melting, methane emissions from melting permafrost, rising ocean water temperatures diminishing the uptake of CO2 to name the most prominent and well understood factors.
This loss of regulation may have been caused by various hypothesised factors in the past, but the self stabilising aspect of Earths temperature has been to reduce Carbon from the atmosphere by sequestration.

By burning large amounts of fossil fuel we have changed the balance of atmospheric gases at a faster rate than the self regulatory system can manage.

These are the problems our scientists are bringing to attention at the same time as the consensus moves forward and a more informed model emerges.

aym

Actually should of wrote that the study further confirms AGW, rather than the absoluteness of the theory of AGW.

That's the foundation of a theory, which is intrinsicly stronger than a law in science. It encompasses various laws to give ideas on how and why things happen the way they do. It grows and evolves. Unfortunately that is taken as a weakness for those that wish to abuse it's existance. The overwhelming evidence is ignored for some edge cases that have yet to be explored or the explainations for them are dismissed.

Have to agree with you, treehugger. But the Palin mention will probably create a firestorm of flaming on behalf of the potential VP even if what you say is true (which too is unfortunately real). So I'm glad you said it and not me. ;)

Sulleny

"The AGW camp is not in any way slowing down society's oil addiction."

There is so much in the words we use.

Andrey Levin

There is such thing as “scientific method”. Any theory (like AGW theory), explaining known facts is not yet theory, it is hypothesis. Hypothesis became a theory when it is able to generate non-trivial falsifiable predictions, and these predictions come true – multiple times. AGW hypothesis is nowhere near to present positive track record of predictions come true.

Presenting to the public unverified hypothesis as proven theory is scientific fraud of Homeric proportions.

eric

"Presenting to the public unverified hypothesis as proven theory is scientific fraud of Homeric proportions."

climate is a massive and complex system. this is not the kind of thing where you can do an experiment in a laboratory and report the results. computer simulations (including "hindcasting" ie simulating historical climate conditions) show that when we include the forcings extant in the past, we can simulate past climate to a high degree of accuracy with many iterations. So to say that there is no evidence behind the AGW "hypothesis" is completely false.

NRG Nut

By simulating past climate in support of AGW, we're talking about the last 100 years. Of course there is no need to acknowledge the previous 4.5 billion years.

Treehugger

Andre Lievin

That's exactly what they are doing, verifying if that the AWG "Theory" is true by doing prediction over the past history of the climate, there predicting the future in the past it fist perfectly with your definition. It is repetable since they can predict over a significant duration, right.

Anyway I don't completly agree with your definition of what is a theory. A theory can be accepted to be true in the scientific community even if you haven't been able to verify it in real but if there is enough evidence to support that theory. Example the theory of evolution : there is countless evidence to support the theory of evolution but we are not able to predict anything with that theory. The theory of the big bang is the same though there is less evidence to support it than the theory of evolution.

aym

Because theories explain why something happens, they should have predictable consequences from their possible existance though.

I don't quite agree that evolution can't predict quite what will be evolved because you may be able to define the evolutionary pressures that must be overcome for succcessful passing of the genes ie selective breeding for traits. Of course you may never guess the strategies that may be developed to get over the obstacle in nature, whether behavioural or structural ie genetic healthiness mate selection through visual or physical cues, which are easier to evolve than changing molecular mechanisms in slower evolving organisms. But the consequences of evolution exist in the fossil record as stored historical changes. But the predictive ability of evolution is not ameniable to mathematical analysis.

For astrophysics, ie the big bang, we have things like the microwave background radiation, the doppler shifting, etc. We test that they fall within the parameters that would have happened if the big bang took place.

But your point is taken. Theories are by their nature unprovable because of the use of inductive logic. But reproducible and repeatable observations that are reviewed and tested, give credence to theories even if all the bits aren't there. And you can never get all the bits.

Treehugger

Aym

We have to distinguish theories that encompass micro phenomenon (like mathematical theories) where you can exactly predict how things move from one given state to another, and theories that encompass macro phenomenon like theory of evolution or theory of AWG since they include thousands of factors and processes, then they are no longer exact theories but rather general theories, macro phenomenon where the theory only gives a general trend of how the whole thing move from a statistical point of view.

fakebreaker

"This study supports the theory that a key driver in all this is ocean currents and circulation patterns, which created different patterns of warm and cold climates depending on the strength of various parts of the global ocean circulation system." Ed Brook

But ocean currents and radiative forcing don't fall into the confines of man made CO2 = global warming. So it should be dismissed!

arnold

There are credible studies that show ordinary variations in radiative forcing to be a non issue for global climate stabilisation.
Ocean circulations are a product of global temperature and land mass position - that is there must be a clear passage. Tectonic plate movements have seen changes there leading to variations in local climate but the local variation is a consequence rather than a determiner of climate change.

aym

CO2 traps longwave (ie infrared)radiation. A fact known since Fourier and Arrhenius. 19th century physical chemistry.

That means it directly effects radiative forcing. Present amounts of measured radiation shows that the average temperature would be -18C instead of the 15C it is. So man-made CO2 does contributes to it.

Since the heating is not even, it will be transfered by standard convection ie, wind and waves and currents.

I would remind what the title of this piece is about. Trying to take a piece out of context as a sort of proof is bold but cherry picking of the ultimate underhanded sort of attitude.

It also says "...and the higher levels of carbon dioxide magnify the warming..."

And if anyone thinks that human made CO2 is somehow less damaging than naturally made CO2, then your should get your head examined.

aym

Treehugger,

I agree that with some scientific theories that it is close to impossible to create some sort of empirical predictive model that will absolutely show that our understanding is more complete. Some theories are just not amically inclined to be presented in that fashion.

But that must be distinguised from the idea that there are no observable consequences from the possible existance of our understanding as represented by our theories as correct. It is these repeatable observable consequences that add to the vast pool of evidence that show that our understanding as presented in the theory is correct.

I understand what you are saying. I'm just trying to make sure that the overall message that AGW is not in anyway a special case of scientific inquiry, gets through. That it has not gotten any free passes. That it has been processed through the scientific community in a rigorous fashion no differently than any other modern theory.

fakebreaker

A quick look at the relationship between solar cycle and surface temperature provides some clues.

http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2007/07005gerhard/images/08.htm

And what is "global climate stabilization?" - climate has been changing continuously for 4.5 billion years.

Andrey Levin

May I present the example of what falsifiable non-trivial prediction is.

“Established in 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac is North America’s oldest continuously published periodical. Boasting 18.5 million readers, this year’s edition contains traditional tips on gardening and farming, and astronomical information and tide charts so accurate the government considered banning them during World War II, fearing they would help German spies.

“We at the Almanac are among those who believe that sunspot cycles and their effects on oceans correlate with climate changes,” writes meteorologist and climatologist Joseph D’Aleo. “Studying these and other factor suggests that cold, not warm, climate may be our future.”

Based on the same time-honored, complex calculations it uses to predict weather, the Almanac hits the newsstands on today saying a study of solar activity and corresponding records on ocean temperatures and climate point to a cooler, not warmer, climate, for perhaps the next half century.

For the near future, the Almanac predicts most of the country will be colder than normal in the coming winter, with heavy snow from the Ozarks into southern New England. Snow also is forecast for northern Texas, with a warmer than usual winter in the northern Plains.

Almanac believers will prepare for a hot summer in much of the nation’s midsection, continuing drought conditions there and wild fire conditions in parts of California, with a cooler-than-normal season elsewhere. They’ll also keep the car packed for the 2009 hurricane season, as the Alamanac predicts an active one, especially in Florida.

Last year, the Almanac correctly predicted “above-normal” snowfall in the Northeast — an understatement — and below-normal snowfall in the mid-Atlantic states.

New Hampshire, home of the Almanac, saw the most snow in 134 years and missed an all-time record by 2.6 inches.”

Now, prediction of climate for incoming 50 years is, strictly speaking, non-falsifiable – time span of the prediction is too long to be of any use for science.

Predictions for incoming winter, and summer, with more detailed regional predictions are non-trivial and falsifiable. Their predictions come true for winter-summer 2007/2008, which warrants some credibility for their models (D’Aleo is one of leading climate scientists). If these predictions will not come true – their scientists will have to start over.

Prediction of active hurricane 2009 season is falsifiable, but more or less trivial.

aym

Ah the farmers almenac, which are observations that were created to help farmers plant crops. Scientific they aren't.

Ultimately they don't tell you why something happens anymore than stonehenge or the the complex building calenders of the Aztecs, Mayans, or Egyptians, which are based on complex math on real observations too, developed for farming and is just as scientific. It certainly doesn't try to explain why in a quantifiable reasonable non-trivial way. It doesn't have open standards of seeing it's methodology or observations. Just the result, which by the way you could've looked up on the net even before the publication was printed.

AGW is based on thousands of scientists who have done peer reviewed work and on scientifically calibrated observations. It accepted by every scientific organization as the way climate works because it meets rigorously those standards for years. It has and continues to survive the standard.

Let D'aleo or whatever he is send the basis of his work to be reviewed for peer publication or better yet, you do it. I'm sure you can pick it later after they've laughed at it, in the dumpster. Just because the public buys it or you do, doesn't give it scientific validity. Just because you accept the attacks on AGW without prejudice doesn't mean there are accepted scientific explanations for all of them.

This type of attack is also used on Darwinian evolution today. Even after over a hundred years, there are those who would attack it in such a fashion. So called "scientists" who parade around giving so called professional opinions. It fools the public but not the professional scientists. Not those who can see something disguised as science.

Andrey Levin

Aym, the irony of my last post was, apparently, lost on you.

The gardening and farming almanac has higher standards of scientific inquiry than whole official climate science combined. Isn’t it funny?

aym

The irony isn't lost. You are totally free to send it in anywhere as "science". And it will be scrutinized and thrown out on it's merits. The merits of AGW have survived many attempts on it's existence. The fact that crap that you serve as observational data is no better than the farmer's almenac because what you consider scrutiny is a joke. The few non-peer reviewed garbage that is continstantly compared to reems of peer-level studies and research are not equal.

You demeaned the process. Tried to compare the entire scientific process to the same level as that put into that book. But scienctific enquiry is a meritocracy. Your delusion that the almanac has undergone equal levels of scrutiny and testing is a joke and shame on anyone who tries to put forth the very idea that the almenac is of equal merit. If you think it is, you deserve the science you get.

So go to the fortune teller because that is where you get your information, someone who strokes your ego and sells you BS. Ego stroking BS.

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