So basically this is an estimate that they know will be adjusted upwards when the real numbers come out. Seems like non-news, using non-numbers.

Justin and Harvey, maybe if we look at a longer time span, we'll at least see the graph starting to go in the right direction.

Who thinks we will be using gas in 2108? or even in 2058?

It is hard to say why this report should exist at all. The input is admittedly out of date. And I see no information useful for future planning.

The large rebates, incentives, and discounts for the low MPG vehicles have undoubtedly increased their sales in the last year. But those programs will not continue.

Dealers and manufacturers currently take a loss to sell unpopular models. But they won't keep making more.

Soon we will see average MPG for new sales increase because all manufacturers will be offering more efficient models. At the same time low MPG sales will drop because there will be no excess inventory that must be sold.

Look at Total Gallons Sold and Total Miles Driven to figure out what is happening.

Vehicle sales somewhat reflect what buyers want; but not totally what they want. They sometimes indicate which vehicles the sellers wish to be rid of, even at a loss.

EPA projections mean nothing at all. Look at how the EPA just arbitrarily decided to down-grade its mileage estimates for the very same cars in model years 2007 and 2008.

The EPA bureaucrats just decided that cars would get 13% less mileage in the city and 8% less on the hi-way, on their window marketing stickers. And they made the car makers change their window stickers to show that.

There are mileage projections that do have the force of Law. The mileage figures are based on an actual test, and methods that have purposely been unchanged since 1975 so you can actually compare cars from different periods,and also not just arbitrarily decide one car is a "better" mileage vehicle than another.

That is the CAFE mileage calculations, conducted by the NHTSA bureaucrats. These are the targets that the automakers must reach by Law in 2020 when their auto fleets must get 35 mpg combined for cars and trucks.

Now some say the mileage figures of the CAFE are "not realistic", but some drivers do obtain the CAFE mileage figures reported. But even if not "realistic" as a mileage figure they certainly are a valid "figure of merit" to show how far the automakers have come over time since 1975.

In 1975 there were ZERO models for sale in the USA that obtained more than 20 mpg by their NHTSA CAFE calculations.

Today there are only few that don't, and that includes the biggest pickup trucks and truck-based SUVS like Suburbans and Escalades.

In fact the CAFE figures for the US Auto fleet are already over 31 mpg, from model year 2006, and have grown since then. For almost twenty years the US auto fleet has had to exceed 27.5 mpg on the CAFE measurement scale and they have done so.Trucks more recently had to exceed 22.5 mpg and have done so.

If you don't mind, I'll pay attention to some actual measurements rather than some arbitrary nonsense from the EPA bureaucrats with nothing to back it up but opinions, and bile.

For the fellow who suggested it would take until 2100 to get to a fair mileage figure, I suggest you know what you are talking about, before you spread your ignorant self-loathing rants. USA mileage figures have more than doubled, since 1975, and are along ways into a second doubling again, expected within a few years.

Overall consumption of petroleum oil in the U.S. dropped 4.5% between January 2008 and July 2008. DOE September 08 report.

Giant:

I looked at the much longer time frame as you suggested and here is what I found:

1) 1908 Ford T = 25.0 mpg
2) 1988 Average = 22.1 mpg
3) 2004 Average = 20.8 mpg
4) 2008 Average = 21.1 mpg

Strictly nothing here to brag about.

Many whould rightly maintain that cars are heavier, go faster, are more equipped etc. If so, how do you explain the lack of (mpg) improvement between 1988 and 2008?

The North American car industry has not done so good at all with regards to mpg in the last century and certainly not in the last 20 years, while Asians and Europeans have done much better.

Let's hope that we will catch up in the next 20 to 30 years.

@Harvey D,

Who said the old Dodge got 23 mpg?

Did the CAFE measurements say that?

For that matter who said the Model T got 25 mpg? or any of the other mileage figures?

I think it is extremely unlikely since the CAFE measurements required only 20 mpg phasing in to 27.5 mpg, when they were adopted and many automakers complained that that was asking a lot for body on frame autos and trucks. The engine in that Dodge was amn old cast iron 318 cubic inch engine that was at least a hundred pounds heavier than the current 4.7 (283 cubic inch) engine. The BSFC of the two engines favors the current model by about 30%. The 3 speed automatic transmission had no overdrive, nor lockup torque converter. While the Chrysler of today offers a five speed, lockup, variable pressure, overdrive, automatic.

The EPA "estimates" guesses are probably the lowest mileage "estimates" for a vehicle in the world. Even the most lead-footed driver should obtain them.

The CAFE measurements based on a actual test of every vehicle duplicating a given "drive scenario" with periods of acceleration, deceleration, city and hi-way driving produces the "measured" CAFE comparison. In turn the CAFE "measurements" are about 35% more optimistic in the mileages measured than the EPA SWAGS, (semi-scientific wild
ass guesses).

There are several other similar tests of actual "drive scenarios". The Europeans use one that is much easier to obtain good mileage figures with in its measurements. So European mileage measurements are about 20% higher than US CAFE measurements. That is why published mileage figures for European vehicles seem so outrageously high.

The Japanese have a mileage measurement "drive" that is very gentle in the acceleration and braking, with very little of speeds over 15-20 mph. It produces measurements that are at the extreme limits of believability. They do this, so the tiny, massively underpowered, 500-900CC micro-cars can duplicate it. Some of those underpowered, micro-cars can barely get out of their own way.

This is only a demonstration of that Truism, that figures don't lie, but liars can figure. The benefit of CAFE test is that they represent a duplication of a genuine "drive" in the real world. I don't recall the route, but it actually exists. And the speeds and traffic represent a real, genuine, "drive scenario".

The other major benefit is that the test REMAINS UNCHANGED. So the cars of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, can actually be compared.

It is a stunning analysis to realize that the biggest, baddest, SUV of 2008, (an Escalade), gets better mileage than the very best and most economical car of the mid 1970s, (VW Beetle), when the CAFE started measurements.

There is even a model of the Escalade (2-mode Hybrid), that get 30% better mileage measurements than that Beetle.

Which is/was the real gas guzzler, the Bug or the Pimpmobile?

Quoth the P-troll:

The EPA bureaucrats just decided that cars would get 13% less mileage in the city and 8% less on the hi-way, on their window marketing stickers.

And they made the car makers change their window stickers to show that.

My dad recorded gas at every fill up for years for his 1954 Chevy.
The little book showed 16 mpg consistently.
He wanted better mileage so he bought an early 1960s Rambler American.
He never admitted this led to his disillusionment with MPG, but his next car was a Mustang.