The report, “Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook”, outlines a set of approaches to cut energy-related CO₂ emissions to enable greenhouse gas emissions to peak and then fall by 2015. For the light-duty vehicle transportation component, the producers commissioned the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR, the German Aerospace Center) Institute for Vehicle Concepts to look specifically at the potential for reductions in the light-duty vehicle sector.

The DLR developed a global scenario for cars based on a detailed bottom-up model covering ten world regions, with the intent of producing a feasible scenario which would lower global CO₂ emissions within the context of the overall emission reduction objective.

Turnover of replacement vehicles was been modelled over five year stages from 2005 to 2050. The scenario assumes that a large share of renewable electricity is available in the future. The major parameters for achieving increased efficiency are:

• Vehicle technology;
• Alternative fuels;
• Changes in sales by vehicle size; and
• Changes in vehicle kilometers travelled.

DLR divided the light-duty market into three vehicle segments (small, medium and large) and nine categories of fuel/propulsion technology:

• Conventional gasoline;
• Gasoline hybrid;
• Diesel hybrid;
• LPG/CNG;
• LPG/CNG hybrid;
• Fuel cell hydrogen;
• Battery electric; and
• Plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV)

For the reference case, DLR used the IEA reference scenario developed for the Mobility 2030 project as a starting point. The alternative car scenario is targeted towards high CO₂ reductions compared to today’s levels.

The authors contend that the share of hybrid cars in the market will grow “enormously” worldwide.

For the industrialized regions, we anticipate a sales share of 65% for hybrid power trains by 2050 and for all other regions 50%, apart from Africa, with 25%. This share includes all types of non-grid connected hybrids. In 2050 the balance of different hybrids will be that in Europe, North America and OECD Pacific roughly 20% are powered by conventional ICE engines, roughly 40% are grid-connectable and 40% are autonomous hybrids. For all other regions, 34% will be conventional, a third plug-in-hybrids and a third autonomous hybrids. Africa is again treated differently.

To power all sizes of vehicles with the same technology does not make sense. We have therefore further projected that a large share of plugin-electric cars in the small vehicle segment (80%) will be battery electric vehicles. Two-thirds of the medium sized vehicles and all of the large vehicles will be plug-in-hybrids, thus still having an internal combustion engine on board.

Overall, the entire report concludes that aggressive investment in renewable power generation and energy efficiency could create an annual US$360-billion industry and provide half of the world’s electricity, while reducing future fuel costs by more than US$18 trillion.

Resources

• Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook