This result will happen naturally.

Auto owners simply save money using the advancing technology of advanced drive-trains. So they don't have to be forced or cajoled into doing so, now that the new technology is maturing.

So what is the big deal from our Green governmental saviors. They will have produced exactly nothing to encourage an probably lots of inadvertent obstacles, like excessive new safety regulations etc. to prevent this from happening.

I am not sure whether the hybrid vehicles will be able to go fast enough on the German Autobahns?

car blog:

Each lane (on super high ways) could have a very different speed limit such 100 Kph, 140 Kph, 200 Kph etc.

Hybrids, PHEVs and BEVs could drive on lane A @ 100 Kph.

Regular ICE vehicles could drive on lane B @ 140 Kph.

Sort cars (and people in a hurry) could drive on lane C @ 200+ Kph.

Rates could also be different for each lane, i.e 100%, 140% and 200% etc.

Harvey - get real.

In germany, there are mostly 2 lanes of highway each way. a 130KM/Hr limit would help avoid their periodic 100+ car pile ups.

In the US, turtles regularly sit in the left lane oblivious to all.

@Car blog
German Autobahns don't actually have to be driven fast.

The German autobahns are famous for being some of the few public roads in the world without blanket speed limits for cars and motorcycles but there are other kinds of limits. Lack of blanket speed limits does not appear to negatively impact the road safety of autobahns compared with motorways in other countries; motorways are safer than other road types. Perhaps this is in part because traffic can be heavy enough to restrict speeds to little above the typical motorway speeds found elsewhere, or due to reducing the exhaustion of the drivers by shortening their travelling times. Certainly, speed limits do apply at junctions and other danger points, like sections under construction or in need of repair. Speed limits at non-construction sites are generally 100 km/h, 120 km/h, or sometimes even 130 km/h; construction sites have a usual speed limit of 80 km/h but may be as low as 60 km/h or even 40 km/h. Certain stretches have separate, and lower, speed limits used in cases of wet lanes.

Some limits were imposed to reduce pollution and noise. Limits can also be put into place temporarily through dynamic traffic guidance systems that display the limit on electronic traffic signs. If there is no speed limit, the recommended speed limit is not more than 130 km/h, referred to in German as the Richtgeschwindigkeit; this speed is not a binding limit, but being involved in an accident driving at higher speeds can lead to being deemed at least partially responsible due to "increased operating danger" (Erhöhte Betriebsgefahr). The average rate of speed traveled on the autobahn in unregulated areas by automobiles not regulated by other laws is about 150 km/h. On average, about half of the total length of the German autobahn network has no speed limit, about one third has a permanent limit, and the remaining parts have a temporary limit for a number of reasons.

Vehicles unable to attain speeds in excess of 60 km/h are not allowed to use the autobahn. Though this limit is not high for most modern vehicles, it prevents very small cars (e.g. quads) and motor-scooters (e.g. Mofas) from using autobahns. To comply with this limit, several heavy-duty trucks in Germany (e.g. for carrying tanks or cranes) have a design speed of 62 km/h (usually denoted by a round black-on-white sign with "62" on it).

@kit
In 2004, Germany had installed electricity generating capacity of 118.9 gigawatts. Also in 2004, Germany produced 566.9 billion kilowatthours (Bkwh) and consumed 524.6 Bwkh of electric power. The largest share of this production (61 percent) came from conventional thermal sources* followed by nuclear (28 percent), hydro and other renewables. Germany has an active electricity trade with neighboring countries, though it is usually a net exporter: during the first six months of 2006, Germany’s electricity grid industry association reported that the country exported 34.5 Bkwh of electric power while importing 22.4 Bkwh.

*[Conventional Thermal -Coal is the most important contributor to Germany’s conventional thermal electricity generation. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), generation capacity fired by brown coal represented 42 percent of Germany’s conventional thermal capacity in 2004, with hard coal contributing 37 percent. Despite the environmental concerns surrounding coal-fired generating capacity and Germany’s need to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, the abundance of domestic coal reserves should result in coal remaining as Germany’s most prominent electricity fuel source for the foreseeable future. However, natural gas generation has increased significantly in recent years. Since 1991, the share of conventional thermal electricity generation supplied by natural gas has increased from 7 percent to 16 percent, according to the IEA. The increase in natural gas has mostly come at the expense of oil-fired capacity.]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany

So governments are going to raise the electricity bills couple of times more than now by 2020...that means electricity not used for charging cars is also affected...not good...

zard,

By 2020, solar and wind power will be ubiquitous and cheap.

and what does government taxing electricity more do to with solar and wind power???

“By 2020, solar and wind power will be ubiquitous and cheap.”

Sounds like NorthernPiker's learning curve allows him to make electricity when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow. A learning curve implies that you actual learn something from experience. From experience over the last 35 years making electricity is that people like NorthernPiker who make exaggerated claims never have any experience making electricity.

By 2020, wind and solar will still an insignificant source of electricity.

Also at the present trend, the number of production PHEV will be zero by 2020.

It would not surprise me in the least that broken solar system and wind turbines are a ubiquitous environmental blight by 2020. That is the present situation in the US. Why tear down junk when it makes such a nice picture in a companies annual green washing report.

Kip,

Batteries are also going down a learning curve. This make EVs inevitable and improves the usage of batteries for power storage for when both the sun doesn't shine, the wind doesn't blow and the power grid is down.

BTW 30% CAGR means an order of magnitude increase in solar every 8 years until. Grid parity is expected in 2014 in southern California, the world's 6th largest economy. Then the CAGR should increase.

I doubt there will be zero and I doubt there will be 1.5 million PHEVs in the US by 2020. Assuming that we get some PHEVs by 2012 - we should be close to a million on the road in 8 years. The first few years will probably be 20,000 but I would expect by 2018 to be over 100,000 per year. Really 1.5 million is not a bad guess - just remember that is about .7% of all cars on the road. Presumably the PHEVs will drive more than the average car so maybe 2% of total miles.

So at 2%, we have not even come close to counteracting population growth.

As far as solar panels and wind, I believe there is a mandate to make up 15% of the total generation capacity by 2020 - oh wait, that also includes hydropower in that 15% - so really only 8% up from the 2-3% there is now. (That 15% was pretty hard fought - BTW)

A dent perhaps - but again, not enough to keep up with population growth. Now - you can look at the CA mandate but really - an unfunded pronouncement from the Governator with no plan on how to do it in a state with a recent history of rolling blackouts.

So for all the wonderful new technologies, the next decade is only marginally influenced by them. US petroleum use is down 7% this year - more than the decade predicted decline based on solar, wind and PHEVs. That was done based on market and the economy - the shock of $146 barrel oil and a recession. Now - neither are sustainable (hopefully).

But if you do absolutely free things like stop selling SUVs and people stop driving pickup trucks to commute - you reduce petroleum use far more in the coming decade than solar and PHEV can do. But wait - there still is no political will for banning SUVs .... we have a long way to go.

Actually Germany will produce about 150 billion kWh of wind power by 2020 annually.

But 1 Million EVs only require 2 to 3 billion kWh annually.

In order to take advantage from the vehicle to grid technology many more PHEVs would be required.

Btw, the area of a parking lot is enough to power a PHEV with photovoltaics alone and PHEVs need parking lots anyway.

And if you guys ever driven on German Autobahns, you would know that the majority have a speedlimit of 120 km/h and where there is no speedlimit, the traffic is usually too high to drive safely above 160 km/h most of the time. And 160 km/h is not a problem for a PHEV.

300TTto545,
Consider an alternative view:
http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=18280 AFS Trinity – XH-150 Plug-in Hybrid (E-REV) - May 2008
“AFS Trinity Demonstrates XH-150 Plug-in Hybrid to California Official”
“SYNOPSIS: In a typical 340 mile week of driving, barely two gallons of fuel will be consumed, resulting in 170 miles per gallon.”
“AFS Trinity's fast XH-150 SUV that gets 150 MPG, goes up to 87 MPH on the highway, accelerates faster than comparable gas only vehicles”
87 mph = 139 kmph

You do not need to force people to give up SUVs and SUTs to radically reduce USA use of oil for transport!