Munich Re: 2008 Natural Catastrophes Show That “Climate Change Has Already Started”
30 December 2008
by Jack Rosebro
2008 natural disasters, by location and severity. Source: Munich Re. Click to enlarge. |
Munich Re, one of the world’s largest re-insurers, has released its annual figures on worldwide losses from natural catastrophes, and has termed 2008 “one of the most devastating years on record,” partly due to the large number of tropical cyclones as well as the Sichuan earthquake in China.
According to the company, the year is the third most expensive on record, exceeded only by 2005—the year that Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans—and 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake.
It is now very probable that the progressive warming of the atmosphere is due to the greenhouse gases emitted by human activity. The logic is clear. When temperatures increase, there is more evaporation, and the atmosphere has a greater capacity to absorb water vapor, with the result that its energy content is higher. The weather machine runs in top gear, bringing more intense severe weather events with corresponding effects in terms of losses. This relationship is already visible today in the increasing heavy precipitation events in many regions of the Earth, the heat waves, and the hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
—Peter Höppe, head of Munich Re’s Geo-Risks Research unit
“The [natural catastrophe] loss statistics for 2008 fit the pattern that the calculations of climate models lead us to expect.” —Peter Höppe |
Despite a drop in loss-producing events compared with 2007 (from 960 to 750), insured losses in 2008 rose to US $45 billion, about 50% higher than in the previous year. More than 220,000 people died worldwide this year as a result of natural catastrophes.
Torsten Jeworrek, of Munich Re’s Board of Management, commented: “This continues the long-term trend we have been observing. Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes. These, in turn, generate greater and greater losses because the concentration of values in exposed areas, like regions on the coast, is also increasing further throughout the world.”
In Asia, Cyclone Nargis is estimated to have claimed the lives of more than 135,000 people in Myanmar, with 54,000 people still missing. With large parts of Myanmar’s mangrove forests—a natural form of coastal protection—eradicated in recent years, storm surges reached as far as 40 kilometers (25 miles) inland. The country was inundated with water up to three meters deep, and more than a million of Myanmar’s inhabitants were made homeless.
Ten largest natural disasters in 2008. Source: Munich Re. Click to enlarge. |
Six tropical cyclones—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike—reached the US coast this year. Ike made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane near Galveston, and submerged large sections of the Texas and Louisiana coast. The incidence of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic this year was also higher than the long-term average, as well as the yearly average of the current warm phase (14.7 cyclones) since 1995. A total of 16 tropical cyclones were counted in 2008; eight reached hurricane strength, with five classified as major hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5).
Preliminary estimates published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) identify 2008 as the tenth warmest year since the beginning of routine temperature recording, and the eighth warmest in the northern hemisphere.
This year, Munich Re began collaborating with Lord Nicholas Stern, lead author of the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change, (earlier post) and the London School of Economics, where Stern is a professor, on research concerning the economic impacts of climate change.
A report by Stern, entitled Key Elements of a Global Deal on Climate Change and released last April, focused on strategies and cost calculations for a greenhouse gas stabilization target of 500 ppm CO2 equivalent, as opposed to than the 550 pm CO2 equivalent target examined by the Stern Review.
“The reason that we have chosen to focus on 500 ppm rather than 550 ppm,” explained Stern, “is that subsequent evidence has indicated that the position is more risky than assumed in the Stern Review.”
Stern gave four primary reasons for revising the stabilization target:
Emissions are growing faster that the IPCC trajectory used in the Stern Review, as summarized in Australia’s Garnaut Climate Change Review (earlier post).
The absorptive capacity of the planet, including of the oceans, appears to be lower than many earlier models had assumed.
The weights in the upper tail of climate sensitivity (the effect of eventual temperature increases on stocks of greenhouse gases) appear to be higher than anticipated.
Physical effects of global warming from a given temperature change, via climate change and directly from the warming, appear to be happening faster than had been anticipated.
Dr. Jeworrek said that the increase in natural catastrophes “have resulted in three action strategies, which we are resolutely pursuing.”
Firstly, we accept risks in our core business only at risk-adequate prices, so that if the exposure situation changes, we adjust the pricing structure. Secondly, with our expertise we develop new business opportunities in the context of climate protection and adaptation measures. Thirdly, in the international debate, we—as a company—press for effective and binding rules on CO2 emissions, so that climate change is curbed and future generations do not have to live with weather scenarios that are difficult to control.
As of January 2009, graphs and tables derived from current analyses of natural catastrophes will be available at the NatCatSERVICE download center. Munich Re is headquartered in Munich, Germany and insures in about 160 countries.
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"Secondly, with our expertise we develop new business opportunities in the context of climate protection and adaptation measures."
Well, at least this charlatan is admitting his real motivation. In the past a protection racket was just that... A protection racket. RICO anyone?
Posted by: Reel$$ | 30 December 2008 at 06:05 AM
I suppose some of their motovation is to justify higher premiums, but the justification is relatively harmless; it will not increase AGW or worldwide losses.
I assume they would rather have less claims to pay and hold lower rates.
And they do admit that the 2008 worldwide losses included the Sichuan earthquake in China.
I think they are mostly adding their voice to the effort to have AGW taken seriously - not going really well and made even tougher with the recession.
Posted by: ToppaTom | 30 December 2008 at 07:20 AM
Grifters, and Bunco Artists.
Earthquakes are now AGW? Even the most fervant AGW ranters, are not quite that dumb and gullible.
But then, Bunco O'Dumma got elected Prez with that kind of reality & promises...
Posted by: Stan Peterson | 30 December 2008 at 07:29 AM
Perhaps the good and somewhat cynical 'side' to this report and the events that it is trying to illustrate is that: adversity drives advancement, productivity, and resilience.
In the same way that many of the parts of the world subject to 'seasons' and difficult 'regular' weather patterns are often more productive (with comparable populations and resources available) than their tropical and sub-tropical counterparts (i.e. south US vs north US, south Europe vs north Europe, anywhere along the equator vs anywhere north of the 35th parallel).
This will hopefully lead to better housing, infrastructure, and productivity in the 'susceptible areas'. If not perhaps people will move, consolidate, and otherwise challenge themselves to make a better system around them. Adversity is the only thing that ensured our survival as species in the past and it'll be our reaction to it via technology that will determine our success in the coming generations. If it doesn't kill us, it'll likely make us stronger and we'll become a better society for having gone through it. (and ridiculous insurance premiums often lead to changes in behavior and technology - witness housing along the florida coast)
Posted by: Jer | 30 December 2008 at 08:08 AM
It seems that skeptics and unbelievers will objurgate until they or their children are directly touched by the ongoing climate changes.
That is what human nature has inherited from earlier generations.
Future generations will learn to treat Earth with more respect, concern and discernment.
Posted by: HarveyD | 30 December 2008 at 08:26 AM
Earthquakes are mapped as under 10% of their major losses, with climate warming accounting for the rest of the huge increases.
Let insurance premiums increase massively and watch business and the public take climate change VERY seriously.
Posted by: kelly | 30 December 2008 at 08:59 AM
“Climate Change Has Already Started”
This is just silly! Does anyone actually believe that the climate has not changed over the Earth's existence? The problem here is that some radicals are trying to convince people that that is the case - that climate has NEVER changed and now, all of a sudden, human beings are responsible for the climate changing (formerly termed Global Warming but re-branded Climate Change since the Earth has been on a cooling trend for many years and the Globalwarmists have been proved wrong).
There is a pollution problem. Please stop wasting tax dollars on fraudulent, religious causes, such as Global Warming and start focusing on actual problems. Regulating breathing (CO2 - a non-polutant) is not the answer.
Posted by: The Goracle | 30 December 2008 at 09:03 AM
Most of the developed world can export technology but not fossil fuels.
Anyone can throw plenty of energy to fulfill a given task, only valuable work can do it with less fuel or resources only available at home.
Investment in technology creates jobs, always.
Posted by: globi | 30 December 2008 at 09:13 AM
The logic is dated. Three years ago, there was more support among climatologists for the idea that warming would result in more intense storms, which is one reason why the theory featured prominently in "An Inconvenient Truth".
The theory was published by Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science at MIT in 2005. The timing was perfect. One months later, Katrina gave the idea a big popular boost.
But the consensus on this particular idea has evaporated, as one researcher after another failed to find a link in their models. The final nail was driven earlier this year by none other than Emanuel himself, who reversed his stance after his own refined computer models predicted no significant increase in either frequency or intensity of storms.
So either Munich Re is opportunistically looking for a way to justify higher premiums, or they're not paying attention.
Posted by: jfinlayson | 30 December 2008 at 09:23 AM
According to this study/simulation:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n6/abs/ngeo202.html
hurricane frequency would go down, but hurricane intensity would go up by increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations.
Now, does this mean, reducing the dependence on foreign oil by investing in technology and creating jobs at home is a bad thing?
Posted by: globi | 30 December 2008 at 09:53 AM
The correlation between CO2 ppm and average global temperature is fact - PERIOD.
Posted by: kelly | 30 December 2008 at 09:54 AM
>>Please stop wasting tax dollars on fraudulent, religious causes, such as Global Warming and start >>focusing on actual problems. Regulating breathing (CO2 >>- a non-polutant) is not the answer.
CO2 exhaled from biomass is part of the short term ecological carbon cycle. This carbon was taken out of the atmosphere by plants to make our food only in the very recent past. This is different from the carbon being released from fossil fuels which has been stored in geological formations for millions of years.
There is a very strong relationship between CO2 concs and temps; I am at work now so don't have the link to the graph. Along with warmer temps it is highly likely that Greenland will melt. This would rise sea levels by 7 meters. This in itself is all that needs to be agreed upon to justify reducing GHG emissions, beyond all the social benefits incurred from breaking our reliance on oil corporation energy monopolies.
Posted by: Mark_BC | 30 December 2008 at 11:10 AM
The correlation between CO2 ppm and average global temperature is fact - PERIOD.
Yes, very true. Although your statement is misleading. The problem with your statement is that you do not give the time reference between Global Warming and CO2. Ice core samples prove that CO2 LAGS higher temperatures. For you non-scientist types (most of the Globalwarmists out there such as Al Gore) that means that an increase in CO2 is a result of warmer temperatures, not the cause.
Posted by: The Goracle | 30 December 2008 at 12:16 PM
"This would rise sea levels by 7 meters. "
LOL!!! You blew it with that one! Nobody, absolutely NOBODY (sane people anyway), believes that. You discredit yourself by stating such fantasies. The Globalwarmism extremists used to claim a one, possibly two meter, rise. Now they have backed off from that. But seven meters? LOL!!!
Posted by: The Goracle | 30 December 2008 at 12:21 PM
A close examination of the CH4, CO2 and temperature fluctuations recorded in the Antarctic ice core records does in fact reveal that yes, the temperature moved first in what is, when viewed coarsely, a very tight correlation. But what it is not correct, is to say the temperature rose and then hundreds of years later the CO2 rose. These warming periods lasted for 5,000 to 10,000 years (the cooling periods lasted more like 100,000 years!) so for the majority of that time (90% and more) temperature and CO2 rose together. This means that this remarkably detailed archive of climatological evidence clearly allows for CO2 acting as a cause for rising temperatures while also revealing it can be an effect of them.
The current understanding of those cycles is that changes in orbital parameters (Milankovich and other cycles) caused greater amounts of summer sunlight to fall in the northern hemisphere. This is actually a very small forcing, but it caused ice to retreat in the north which changed the albedo. This change, reducing the amount of white, reflective ice surface, led to increasing the warmth more in a feedback effect. Some number of centuries after that process started, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere began to rise and this also amplified the warming trend even further as an additional feedback mechanism.
One warning that this gives us for the future is that we may well see additional natural CO2 come out of the woodwork as whatever process that took place repeatedly over the last 650K years begins to play out again. The likely candidates are out gassing from warming ocean waters, carbon from warming soils and methane from melting permafrost.
And the thing we must remember is; while natural CO2 lagged warming in the past fossil CO2 is leading warming now. The lagging natural CO2 hasn't hit us yet, but it will.
Posted by: ai_vin | 30 December 2008 at 12:53 PM
'scientist types' are the ones who discovered that increasing global CO2 levels lead to increasing global temperatures - they're not the ones lagging..
Posted by: kelly | 30 December 2008 at 12:58 PM
>>LOL!!! You blew it with that one! Nobody, absolutely NOBODY (sane people anyway), believes that. You discredit yourself by stating such fantasies. The Globalwarmism extremists used to claim a one, possibly two meter, rise. Now they have backed off from that. But seven meters? LOL!!!
Do the calculation.
>>For you non-scientist types (most of the Globalwarmists out there such as Al Gore) that means that an increase in CO2 is a result of warmer temperatures, not the cause.
I wish I was on my computer, I could bring out all my links to the graphs. As ai vin explained, ice ages and climate changes in Earth's past are mostly (though not completely) explained by Milankovich cycles. These are slow gradual variations in the Earth's orbit. When you look at the CO2 vs temperature graph you see the peaks and valleys generally following these Milankovitch cycles, but you will notice how much more pronounced they are than the gradual orbital cycles. This suggests a positive feedback relationship.
Most of the time, CO2 lags temperature increases, but not always. This is consistent with what would be expected if Milankovitch cycles were the cause, which influence temperature, which then influence CO2. And the short time lag between CO2 and temps is evidence of the worst fear of climate scientists -- a positive feedback relationship between CO2 and temperature. Now, CO2 is driving temperature, and the increased temperature, if history is anything to go by, will lead to higher temps, and more CO2, etc etc, until a new stable equilibrium is reached. The problem is, that equilibrium would likely have sea levels 7 m higher and different climate patterns to what we have adapted to.
Posted by: Mark_BC | 30 December 2008 at 01:07 PM
You denialists talk about climate scientists making wild claims but that's the pot calling the kettle black; check out Stan's "Earthquakes are now AGW?"
Dude they didn't say that. They were only comparing their loses from climate change AND earthquakes, they didn't say one caused the other.
Or that "the Earth has been on a cooling trend for many years" bull.
The 11 warmest years all occurred in the last 13 years.
Posted by: ai_vin | 30 December 2008 at 01:16 PM
With the Greenland ice sheet at 2,850,000 km3 volume, if you divide this by the area of ocean on the Earth, 361,132,000 km2, you get that water would rise by 7.9 meters. It's a pretty simple calculation.
Posted by: Mark_BC | 30 December 2008 at 01:16 PM
"The correlation between CO2 ppm and average global temperature is fact - PERIOD."
"The earth is flat and the sun does not pass under it in the night, but travels through the northern parts as if hidden by a wall".
Severian, Bishop of Gabala (d. 408)
Posted by: Reel$$ | 30 December 2008 at 01:16 PM
A fairly transparent attempt to extort money from the unsuspecting insured. Shameful and unconvincing.
Posted by: sulleny | 30 December 2008 at 01:58 PM
It's interesting to see the denialists back at the wheel
(would wonder if they set flags on this site so they can vent their angst against any mention of AGW. They certainly get in early,(dont mind the misplaced order of posts as the site is under construction)
These posters have volumes to say but only one simple message and take every opportunity to skew the content of any AGW symathetic report.
An example of language designed to embarras, humiliate and put down those readers interested in hearing more and all sides of the subject.
"So call us Gullible, idiotic." "absolutely NOBODY (sane people anyway), believes that." "fraudulent, religious causes, such as Global Warming.
Discredit the authors:
"Well, at least this charlatan" ( —Peter Höppe, head of Munich Re’s Geo-Risks Research unit to give his proper title) "is admitting his real motivation. In the past a protection racket was just that... A protection racket."
Or hows this for summing up climate science and then implications for future climate according to the current understanding (or science)
"This is just silly! Does anyone actually believe that the climate has not changed over the Earth's existence? The problem here is that some radicals are trying to convince people that that is the case - that climate has NEVER changed and now, all of a sudden, human beings are responsible for the climate changing (formerly termed Global Warming but re-branded Climate Change since the Earth has been on a cooling trend for many years and the Globalwarmists have been proved wrong)."
Take note any scientists who believe in AGW. This may just convince you!
">>For you non-scientist types (most of the Globalwarmists out there such as Al Gore)"
"Bunco O'Dumma "
You discredit yourself by stating such fantasies." "The Globalwarmism extremists used to claim a one, possibly two meter, rise. Now they have backed off from that. But seven meters? LOL!!!"
On the last comment the skewed response was to this statement.
"Along with warmer temps it is highly likely that Greenland will melt. This would rise sea levels by 7 meters. This in itself is all that needs to be agreed upon to justify reducing GHG emissions, beyond all the social benefits incurred from breaking our reliance on oil corporation energy monopolies."
In fact if all the worlds permanent ice melts the sea level will rise by some 60 -70 meters. This is no fantasy. This is a nightmare.
This too is a possibility, not likely with our understanding of how the climate systems have operated in the past. But nonetheless possible over time with runnaway climate change.
"Three years ago, there was more support among climatologists for the idea that warming would result in more intense storms,
The final nail was driven earlier this year by none other than Emanuel himself, who reversed his stance after his own refined computer models predicted no significant increase in either frequency or intensity of storms."
Heres the skew
Actually: "According to this study/simulation:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n6/abs/ngeo202.html
hurricane frequency would go down, but hurricane intensity would go up by increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations."
Forgive me the error in my ways for seeing a trend amongst "this type" of poster as there seems nothing new to say, just stirring the same possum.
It's not that I'm a religious fanatic, That I have a vested interest in "wasting tax dollars on fraudulent, religious causes" destabilising govt's or bringing society or civilisation to its knees.
Show a reasoned rational argument and people will take it seriously, but as all that is on offer is the ranting argumentative paranoid conspiracy fantasies and irrational denialism in the face of expert opinion my immediate interest is to put your opinion in perspective.
Posted by: arnold | 30 December 2008 at 03:36 PM
The "scientific consensus," not arguable, of course, is that two-thirds of Ohio was covered by the Wisconsinan glacier about 18,000 years ago. The scientific consensus is also that massive CO2 emitting industries and societies did not exist 18,000 years ago (yes, please go ahead and argue this). The Wisconsinan glacier covering Ohio melted over time (please see Ohio fro proof). Earth was not destroyed. All animals were not made extinct. The natural warming and cooling of Earth is a fact. Man will not, and can not, have any measurable impact on this. The warming and cooling cycles that we are going through are closely related to sun activity.
Posted by: The Goracle | 30 December 2008 at 05:58 PM
Yes, climate has varied in the past and it has varied for many different reasons, some better understood than others. The present day climate change is very well understood and is different. Simply noting that something happened before without humans does not in any logical way show that humans are not causing it today.
For example, we see in ice core records from Antarctica and Greenland that the world cycled in and out of glacial periods over 120Kyr cycles. The cause for that climate cycle's timing is fairly well understood to be the results of changes in the orbit of the Earth, though the mechanism behind the resulting response has not been conclusively established. These orbital cycles are regular and predictable and they are definitely not the cause of today's warming. The other important difference between the glacial-interglacial cycles and today is the rapidity of the current change. The rate of warming is on the order of 10 times faster today than seen in the ice cores.
Such rapid warming on a global scale is very rare in the geological record, and while it may not be unprecedented, there is very strong evidence that whenever such a change has happened, whatever the cause, it was a catastrophic event for the biosphere.
This is quite true that the natural fluxes in the carbon cycle are much larger than anthropogenic emissions. But in the natural process, for roughly the last 10K years until the industrial revolution, every gigatonne of carbon going into the atmosphere was balanced by one coming out. What we have done is to alter only one side of this cycle. We put approximately 6 gigatonnes of carbon into the air but, unlike nature, we are not taking any out.
Thankfully, nature is actually compensating in part for our emissions, because only about half of the CO2 we are emitting is staying in the air. Nevertheless, since we began burning fossil fuels in earnest over 150 years ago, the atmospheric concentration that was relatively stable for the previous several thousand years has now risen by over 35%. So whatever the total amounts going in and out on their own, humans have clearly upset the pre-existing balance and altered significantly an important part of the climate system.
It's very true that the earth is warmed, for all practical purposes, entirely by solar radiation. So if the temperature is going up or down a reasonable place to find the cause would be the sun. Well, it turns out that it is more complicated than one might think to detect and measure changes in the amount or type of sunshine reaching the earth. Detectors on the ground are too susceptible to all kinds of interference from the atmosphere. After all, one good cloud passing overhead can cause an instant shiver on an otherwise beautiful, warm day, but not because the sun itself changed. The best way to detect changes in the actual output of the sun versus changes in the radiation reaching the earth's surface because of clouds, smoke, dust or pollution is by taking readings from space.
This is a job for satellites. According to PMOD at the World Radiation Center there has been no increase in solar irradiance since at least 1978 when satellite observations began. This means that for the last thirty years, while the temperature has been rising fastest, the sun has shown no trend.
There has been work done on reconstructing the solar irradiance record over the last century before satellites were available. According to the Max Plank Institute where this work is being done, there has been no increase in solar irradiance since around 1940. This reconstruction does show an increase in the first part of the 20th century that coincides with the warming from around 1900 til the 1940's. This trend in irradiance is not enough to explain it all, but it is responsible for a large portion of that trend in temperature.
The idea that man can not have any measurable impact on the natural warming and cooling of Earth is clearly wrong and I'll give one example where one man caused the temperature to raise 1 degree all across America for three days. On 9/11 Bush ordered the grounding of all airplanes over America, without high altitude jets creating contrails the skys cleared and brightened, more sunlight reaching the ground caused the temperature raise.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2058273530743771382
Posted by: ai_vin | 30 December 2008 at 06:30 PM
A Taxonomy of Skepticism by David Sington
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/producer.html
Posted by: ai_vin | 30 December 2008 at 06:51 PM