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With Increasing Car Ownership, China’s Oil Demand to Increase by Up to 33% 2015

Reuters. An executive at Sinopec’s institute for economic and technology research predicted that China’s oil demand will increase by up to one third by 2015 as car ownership grows fast from its current low base.

Despite the current economic slowdown and government energy saving efforts, oil demand in the second-biggest oil consuming country will grow to 410 million-420 million tonnes in 2010 from around 380 million tonnes in 2008, said Mao Jiaxiang, vice president of Sinopec’s institute for economic and technology research. Demand could hit 500 million-530 million tonnes by 2015 and 570 million-620 million tonnes by 2020, he told a conference in Beijing.

By way of comparison, in 2008, the US consumed approximately 967 million tonnes (7.1 billion barrels) of petroleum and petroleum products according to the US Energy Information Administration.

China’s consumption of gasoline, diesel and kerosene, 210 million tonnes last year, would be around 220 million tonnes in 2010, 300 million in 2015 and nearly 400 million tonnes in 2020.

Comments

SJC

We all know the scenario, finite fossil fuels, flat supply and increasing demand. We need to establish priorities, whether cleaner air, lower CO2 or other reasons, less imported oil is the factor that does it for me.

It is a national priority that affects us all. This is the one thing that we should be able to agree upon. If we can not get a majority to agree on this, then we are lost. The other benefits are great, but reducing imported oil is the main reason for me to support cellulose biofuels as a national priority, A.S.A.P.

HarveyD

I agree with SJC that reducing oil imports should be a national top priority. USA cannot support ever increasing oil imports. The current Administration is fully aware of this problem and is taking appropriate measures to curg oil consumption and import.

However, there are more than one way to meet that goal, i.e.

1) consume much less with more efficient lighter vehicles and the accellerated introduction of HEV, PHEVs and BEVs should be the very top priority.

2) produce more fossil liquid fuel and/or NG & coal derived fuel locally.

3) produce much more cellulosic biofuels.

Production of ethanol from edible food stocks should be curtailed and/or restricted to real food surpluses.

Eventually, progressive electrification with much better e-storage units is the most sustainable solution.

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