Pike Research Forecasts Li-ion Batteries Will Become a $1.1B Segment of the Stationary Energy Storage Industry by 2018
22 October 2009
Of the eleven competing energy storage technologies analyzed in a recent report from Pike Research, the cleantech industry analyst firm forecasts that Li-ion batteries will be the fastest growing category for the Stationary Utility Energy Storage (SUES) sector, growing to a $1.1 billion worldwide business by 2018.
| Current stationary energy storage options. Source: Pike, ORNL. Click to enlarge. |
Pike Research forecasts that revenue from Lithium Ion batteries will represent 26% of the $4.1-billion global stationary energy storage business by 2018. Other SUES technologies include other advanced batteries such as Sodium Sulfur (NAS), as well as kinetic storage techniques like Pumped Hydro and Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES). Pike considers short-duration, high-power technologies such as flywheels and supercapacitors to be relegated to niche status.
Noting that the SUES industry today lacks a technology provider that could serve a multibillion dollar market, Pike suggests that the answer to this concern may lie amongst the developers of Lithium Ion (Li-ion) battery technology, such as A123 Systems.
Li-ion battery technology is about to receive an unprecedented wave of government and venture capital-led investment in research and development, with many of the applications focused on the transportation sector to support battery-powered vehicles. Assuming efforts are successful to reduce cost and broaden capability of the myriad of flexible lithium-based chemistries, the utility industry is likely to be a significant beneficiary.
AEP has already announced plans for a distributed “backyard” deployment of energy storage, and use of Lithium battery based technologies appears to be on the horizon. An explosion in demand of Li-ion battery technology for SUES applications appears to be the most plausible scenario, assuming that it is inevitable that utilities will address the energy storage problem.
—“Energy Storage Technology Markets”
Pike Research’s study, “Energy Storage Technology Markets”, analyzes the opportunity for several key technology categories including advanced batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air, flow batteries, and frequency regulation for utility-scale applications. The report assesses energy storage market drivers, challenges, and regulatory/legislative issues, and also provides detailed market forecasts and profiles of key industry players.
This sounds odd: a Li-ion battery is still much more expensive than a lead acid one, and most of the time, stationary applications don't care about weight or volume, so why would they want to use Li-ion?
Plus, their lifespan is much shorter than that of a Flywheel, and this lifespan gets shortened every time you need a lot of power or charge too quickly, which isn't the case for Flywheels.
Someone has an explanation?
Posted by: Simodul | 22 October 2009 at 04:53 AM
I need to read the report but judging from the graphic, Pike just stole an old EPRI slide and didn't consider new high powered flywheels (i.e. Beacon Power) in their analysis.
Posted by: T_Ryan | 22 October 2009 at 07:19 AM
Simodul,
The only thing I can think of is that they expect that prices will drop sharply thanks to mass fabrication for EV's.
Posted by: Arne | 22 October 2009 at 08:19 AM
Deep cycle lead acid batteries have relatively low up front capital costs but their life time (i.e. the number of charge/discharge cycle that they undergo without significant degradation) is relatively low. This is why sodium sulfur batteries are the current preferred choice for utility scale storage. Apparently Pike Research is claiming that the life cycle cost of lithium batteries will drop below those of NAS batteries. Remember that stationary batteries for grid storage do not have the same severe requirements concerning energy and power density that transport batteries do. Lowering costs may be easier for this application than for automotive applications.
The only company I know of with substantial commercial sales of high rpm composite flywheels is Pentadyne. If you read the spec sheets for their product you will see that the bearing losses consume the entire stored power in a little over one hour. More than an order of magnitude improvement is needed before flywheels can be used for night/day load shifting. I have read some speculation that superconducting bearings might be able to lower losses by an order of magnitude or more, but I am not holding my breath waiting for a low cost product of this nature to enter the market.
Posted by: Roger K. Brown | 23 October 2009 at 08:26 AM
Firefly may improve the cycle life of lead batteries sufficient to make them economical even with replacement costs. There are many ideas available for improving the cycle life of lead batteries.
Nickel Iron batteries have a very long life, longer even than the average human. If as much money went into them as goes into Lithium they could be very much improved and more than adequate for stationary operation. Nickel Cadmium batteries do have the same advantages and higher power.
Sodium-sulphur batteries have very low reactant costs and even could be made into flow batteries for very large energy capacities. Their structure is so simple and so low cost there is almost no reason to not just add more cells instead of using a flow battery design.
The high temperature required is a very little issue for stationary installations. Very thick foam glass can be used. The high temperature is available as an emergency source of heat even.
The vanadium redox flow battery should not be forgotten even though the energy density is low; the cost per added kilowatt-hour of storage is low and very suited for very long term energy storage. The false insistance by its promoters that windpower did not have to provide alternate power during the failure of wind, promoted the demise of the Canadian VRB. VRB was rescued and moved fortunately by the Chinese so the technology is available still. It is very easy to hide a large tank of sulphuric acid underground or even under the cellar floor.
The worries about the dangers and corrosiveness of liquid sulphur led to the invention of the ZEBRA battery that still uses liquid sodium but operates at a lower temperature with nickel chloride as a reactant. The solid electrolyte is sodium beta alumina but there is the liquid electrolyte sodium aluminum chloride. The battery is built and nickel and iron powder is poured in with high purity salt and aluminum chloride. The cell is sealed and heated up and is charged, and the working sodium comes from the salt. Nickel and iron chlorides are formed.
There exist low temperature sodium ion conductors that CERAMATEC is investigating for lower temperature sodium ion batteries.
The Flywheel engine systems of precisepower corportion are an example of flywheel systems with engine buit in for lown term backup power. The output power circuits are just copper wires no semiconductors for robust systems. http://www.precisepwr.com/
Long term flywheel systems were invented, but for stationary service it is more necessary to select on cost not high performance materials. Steel might even be a good enough material for lowest cost.
Sodium or vanadium are far more likely to be the energy storage for the grid. ..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 24 October 2009 at 09:29 PM
Fabricated compressed air bottles may be a better use of strong materials than flywheels. ..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 24 October 2009 at 09:33 PM
Roger K and Henry Gibson...
Roger - Yes you are right that Pentadyne has flywheels. These are, to my knowledge, intended for stationary use. They are using active magnetic bearings to keep the friction down. Unfortunately they require some energy to run and they are still quite costly.
Magnetal www.magnetal.se is providing a unique passive component - Electro Dynamic Bearings - that are virtually friction free.
Magnetal is right now working on a flywheel solution for vehicles called GESS (Green Energy Storage System). This component can significantly reduce the battery size with at least 40% thus also reducing cost, weight and volume. In addition the GESS component is handling fast charge and discharge events which significantly improves battery lifetime.
Please have a look at www.magnetal.se/GESS.pdf
Regarding compressed air... there are huge energy losses involved to compress air (depending on how high pressure you want). Just go out and feel the heat generated by a regular diving compressor and you will know where the energy is lost.
Posted by: Niclas | 24 May 2010 at 12:03 PM
For more information on flywheels and gyro effects please visit www.magnetal.se/MagnetalGyro.pdf
The document shows that there will only be a minor force of about 10-20 N trying to tilt the vehicle. Probably the crank shaft and engine flywheel will add more forces to the system.
A smaller fast spinning flywheel is also reducing the effect.
Posted by: Niclas | 13 October 2010 at 03:28 AM