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Electrification Coalition Roadmap Calls for 75% of Light-Duty Vehicle Miles Traveled in the US to Be Electric by 2040

Prtm1
The Electrification Roadmap calls for 75% of light-duty VMT in the US to be electric by 2040. Achieving this will require a minimum of 25% of new light-duty vehicles purchased in the US to be grid-enabled vehicles (GEV) by 2020. Source: Electrification Roadmap. Click to enlarge.

The newly formed Electrification Coalition (earlier post) has released its Electrification Roadmap, a report outlining a vision for the deployment of a fully integrated electric drive network.

The report, prepared in partnership with the organization Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) and in consultation with PRTM management consultants for market analysis and technical input, proposes completely transforming the US light-duty vehicle fleet into one in which grid-enabled mobility (grid-enabled vehicles, GEV) is the new conventional standard. By 2040, the report proposes, 75% of the light-duty vehicle miles traveled in the US should be electric miles.

As a result, oil consumption in the light-duty fleet would be reduced to just 2.0 mbd, compared to today’s level of 8.6 mbd, and it is conceivable that US oil imports could effectively be reduced to zero.

...In order to reach the goal of 75 percent electric miles by 2040, the US light-duty vehicle market will need to have reached a tipping point by 2020. This is defined as the point at which grid-enabled vehicles represent 25 percent of new LDV purchases. The specific technology—plug-in hybrid electric or pure electric—is not as important as the share that such vehicles represent of the new vehicle portfolio. Different GEV technologies will meet different drivers’ needs, but the concept of electrification cannot move beyond a niche application until at least one-quarter of new vehicle consumers are willing to adopt the technology.

—Electrification Roadmap

The goal of deploying more than 200 million electric-powered vehicles is ambitious and should not be understated, the report notes. The envisioned change demands synchronized deployment of new vehicles and infrastructure on a massive scale. Altering the existing ground transportation system—which represents more than a century of private investment and government regulation, “requires an exceedingly careful and thorough planning process, to which this report seeks to make a helpful contribution.”

The roadmap report examines the challenges facing electrification, including battery technology and cost, infrastructure financing, regulatory requirements, electric power sector interface, and consumer acceptance issues. The report is intended to provide policymakers and business leaders with a framework for overcoming these challenges in order to drive meaningful reductions in US oil dependence.

In addition to examining the scope of the challenges, the report makes a number of recommendations to address them, including:

  • Establish tax credits for installing automotive-grade batteries in stationary applications to help drive scale and contribute to reducing battery cost.

  • Establish loan guarantees for retooling automotive assembly lines.

  • Modify building codes to promote GEV adoption.

  • Promote the inclusion of GEV-related investment in the utility rate base.

  • Adjust utility rate structures to facilitate GEV deployment.

  • Establish a guaranteed residual value for used large format automotive batteries.

  • Review existing regulations on vehicle warranties.

“Electrification ecosystems”. To achieve the proposed deployment of grid-enabled vehicles, an ambitious federal initiative to establish “electrification ecosystems” in a number of American cities will be required, the report says.

In the GEV context, an electrification ecosystem is a community in which each of the elements necessary for the successful deployment of grid-enabled vehicles is deployed nearly simultaneously in high concentrations. By ensuring that vehicles, infrastructure, and the full network of support services and technologies arrive in well-defined markets together, ecosystems will provide an invaluable demonstration of the benefits of integrated electrification architecture.

The report suggests a phased approach, with Phase One ecosystems, incorporating 6 to 8 cities, reaching stock penetration rates of 50,000 to 100,000 vehicles by 2013. This level of deployment would place the US on a path to deploy approximately 700,000 grid-enabled vehicles on the road by 2013, consistent with the national goal of 75% electric VMT by 2040, according to the report.

Phase One of the ecosystem deployment strategy is intended primarily as a proof of concept and data collection exercise. Phase Two is intended to jumpstart the wide-scale deployment of GEVs to the levels needed to achieve the goals of 14 million GEVs on the road by 2020 and more than 120 million GEVs on the road by 2030. Phase two will expand deployment to between 20 and 25 additional cities.

The coalition makes a series of recommendations in support of the Phased Ecosystems approach, including:

Phase One

  • Create position of Assistant Secretary for Electric Transportation at the Department of Energy

  • Modify plug-in electric drive vehicle tax credits by significantly increasing them for vehicles purchased and registered in Phase One ecosystems.

  • Establish tax credits equal to 75% of the cost to construct public charging infrastructure in phase one ecosystems.

  • Extend consumer tax credits for home charging equipment.

  • Establish tax credits equal to 50% of the costs of the necessary IT upgrades for utilities or power aggregators to sell power to GEVs in phase one ecosystems.

Phase Two

  • In phase two, adjust consumer tax credits for GEVs and standardize them across phase one and phase two ecosystems.

  • In phase two, adjust tax credits for public charging infrastructure to approximately 50% of the cost

  • In phase two, adjust financial support to 20% of the cost for IT upgrades for utilities or power aggregators to sell power to GEVs.

Members of the Electrification Coalition include:

  • Timothy E. Conver, Chairman, President & CEO, AeroVironment, Inc.
  • Peter L. Corsell, CEO, GridPoint, Inc.
  • David W. Crane, President & CEO, NRG Energy, Inc.
  • Kevin Czinger, President & CEO, Coda Automotive
  • Seifi Ghasemi, Chairman & CEO, Rockwood Holdings, Inc.
  • Carlos Ghosn, President & CEO, Nissan Motor Company, Ltd.
  • Alex A. Molinaroli, Chairman, Johnson Controls-Saft and President, Johnson Controls Power Solutions
  • Reuben Munger, Chairman, Bright Automotive, Inc.
  • Frederick W. Smith, Chairman, President & CEO, FedEx Corporation
  • David P. Vieau, President & CEO, A123 Systems, Inc.

Resources

Comments

SJC

"public dollars in private transportation..."

This may be THE political flaw. If you require all costs to be internalized, then people get upset. The idea of the "free lunch" where people get to cut corners to gain profits, then you will have lots of special interest forces to contend with.

HarveyD

Should Governments, Lobbies, Big Business, Bankers, Insurances or Wall Street Operators be the answer?

All Business (Big or Small), if not properly regulated will lead the financial 1929 or 2008 major crisis.

Governments must find better ways to avoid free enterprise Business excesses. Otherwise, the great American dream will fall apart every other decade and take the world into deep financial spins.

SJC

Public money for public office could make politicians more accountable to the citizens and tax payers. Right now it is who can raise the most money from special corporate interests that gets elected. The implication is that what is good for corporations is good for America. We have to question some of the basic under lying assumptions if we are to make progress.

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