QUANTIFY Study Finds GHG Emissions from Global Transport Could Double Their Net Contribution to Warming by 2100
27 November 2009
Transport emissions could double their current relative net contribution to global warming by 2100, according to a new study by researchers at the Oslo-based Centre for International Climate and Environment Research (CICERO) in Norway.
The study’s results, presented in the journal Atmospheric Environment, are part of the EU-funded QUANTIFY (Quantifying the climate impact of global and European transport systems) project, which received €8.39 million (US$12.6 million) under the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6).
The researchers first calculated the historic contributions from transport, concluding that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By sector, they found that road transport is the largest contributor—11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Aviation contributed 4% and rail 1%.
Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of -7%, due to the effects of SO2 and NOx emissions.
They then calculated the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario.
The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is 15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity.
—Skeie et al.
More travelling and international trade drive the emission increase. Road transport gives the largest contribution and will most likely continue to do so in the future.
—Dr. Jan S. Fuglestvedt, director of research at CICERO
A total of 40 partners from EU Member States including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the UK, as well as Russia and the US are participating in the QUANTIFY project, which is being coordinated by Germany’s Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) and is due to end in February 2010.
Resources
Skeie, R. B., et al. (2009) Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios. Atmospheric Environment, 43, 39, 6260-6270. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.05.025
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Could Double Their Net Contribution to Warming by 2100...
LOL!!!! So, the "scientists" can't get their models to fit the cooling trend that has been occurring over the past ten years (EVEN WITH AN INCREASE IN CO2!!!). But we expect rational people to believe that, 89 (yes EIGHTYNINE!!!) years from now something "could" happen.
LOL!!! If it were not for the fraud, and theft of tax dollars for this kind of "research," these "studies" would be hilarious.
Global Cooling is upon us. Get with the game, people!!!
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Posted by: The Goracle | 27 November 2009 at 09:16 AM
There's nothing much to say whether this is a 'policy on' or 'policy off' forecast. I'd say it is policy off; ignoring the potential of electricifcation, biofuels, smart growth development and more potential technical and policy tools that could come into effect. Begs the question is this more scaremongering from the endless Climate Change Propaganda Machine to keep the momentum going?
It would be more useful to look at this from a "where's the energy going to come from" aspect and look to constructive solutions.
Posted by: Scott | 27 November 2009 at 09:26 AM
"Legal scenario: Lawyers for the ICC welcome admissions of complicity to defraud international organizations of taxpayer funds.
"part of the EU-funded QUANTIFY (Quantifying the climate impact of global and European transport systems) project, which received €8.39 million (US$12.6 million) under the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6)."
Following prosecutions of Climate Research Unit and IPCC personnel - dozens of ICC investigation teams track down hundreds of corrupt climate "scientists," government employees and private sector collaborators charged with accessory to defraud the public trust.
Amnesty offered to those who come forward early."
The above is a reel frightening view of times ahead. At least smart "researchers" are now including CYA disclaimers in new studies they release:
"Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity."
Posted by: Reel$$ | 27 November 2009 at 09:32 AM
It will not happen because the world will switch to electrified vehicles and trains much before that date.
Posted by: HarveyD | 27 November 2009 at 11:26 AM
It will not happen because, by 2040 we will surpass the 10 billion mark and some bug that is a mix of Ebola and Malaria will wipe out 85% of the population. Problem solved for another few centuries.
Posted by: JosephT | 27 November 2009 at 03:29 PM
JosephT: Good point...sad but very likely true. Personally, I believe there will have been a nuclear exchange / nuclear war by then. Waaaay too many crazy people seeking nuclear weapons right now. I also can't imagine China building it's military up the way they are and not doing anything with it either.
Posted by: ejj | 27 November 2009 at 06:18 PM
China's military is just a defence force; yes it does have a lot manpower but that's to compensate for their weapons systems being less capable than even the Russian weapon systems. Plus they have little capability to "project" their forces to other parts of the world.
Posted by: ai_vin | 27 November 2009 at 09:09 PM
"...transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000..."
I would have thought that it was much more than this. I guess we need to change our ways on burning coal for electrical power ASAP.
Posted by: SJC | 29 November 2009 at 09:31 AM
Transport enables much else that contributes to emissions, but so does everything else from medicine to the Internet to living in houses.
Interesting studies showing averaged. Males are more aware of movement type activities than Females who are more socially responsive.
Assume that to some degree all humans have a more highly attenuated response to movement.
Then consider that certain activities or concepts show up in the brainbox as very much larger than proper scaling would show.
That suggests that a highly animated activity has a relatively bigger mindprint than say knitting or cooking even if more people cook or knit.
Cooking will always be low in perception.
Posted by: arnold | 29 November 2009 at 11:11 AM
Is it not amusing that the ships are having a negative effect because they are allowed to release both NOX and S02 over the ocean where they are both fertilizers. They also ought to be equipped with a means of releasing iron to create great plant growth. If the SO2 were collected in water and mixed with iron ore it might dissolve the iron ore for better results. but if they did the SO2 would not correct the greenhouse effect of CO2. ..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 29 November 2009 at 04:39 PM
Henry,
It's a worry. Don't you think the carbonic acid will dissolve the iron?
Sulphur is an essential growth promotant but contributes to excesses of acidity. S might grow more leafy vegies.
There is no environmental requirement to lower ocean pH.
Posted by: arnold | 30 November 2009 at 03:26 AM