Pike Forecasts More Than 4.7M Electric Vehicle Charge Points to Be Installed Worldwide by 2015; China to Represent More Than 1/3 of Global Market
25 May 2010
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| Projected EV charging station unit sales by region. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
In a new report, Pike Research forecasts that a total of 4.7 million electric vehicle charge points will be installed worldwide during the period from 2010 to 2015 to support the transition to plug-in vehicles. Pike Research forecasts that annual revenue from EV charging equipment will reach US$1.8 billion in 2015.
Pike anticipates that the Asia Pacific region will be the world’s largest market for EVs and charging equipment. The governments of China, Japan, and Korea have all promised to invest in EV charging infrastructure and are providing incentives toward the purchase of EVs. China, which in 2009 became the world’s largest automotive market, will represent more than one-third of the global market for charging equipment, according to Pike.
In the United States, charging equipment sales during the first few years will be dominated by government purchased or subsidized sales, Pike says. Pike Research expects that sales to commercial entities, such as retailers, will be limited initially due to a lack of a clear revenue model.
The distribution of charging equipment sales will vary by region, according to Pike. With a higher percentage of the population having access to convenient home charging in North America, residential EV equipment sales will represent more than two-thirds of sales in that region. In Europe and Asia, where a much larger percentage of the population lives in multi-unit housing (apartments and condominiums), standalone charging equipment will represent the majority of sales.
Pike Research’s analysis indicates that the market for EV charging equipment is likely to become increasingly crowded by the end of 2011. While the initial wave of vendors was led by niche vendors such as AeroVironment, Better Place, Coulomb Technologies, and ECOtality, heavyweight technology players such as GE, Panasonic, Samsung, and Siemens are now making strong moves into the space.
Since initiating its coverage of the EV charging equipment sector in 2009, Pike Research has downgraded its forecast slightly to the current level of 4.7 million charge points installed between 2010 and 2015, from its original estimate of 5 million charging stations during that period.
Pike senior analyst John Gartner comments that this is due to a somewhat slower projected rate of sales for EVs, in addition to the continued lack of a clear business model for public charging stations.
The economics of selling a few kilowatt hours per charge are very challenging, and as such we anticipate that public charging station deployments will be driven mainly by government initiatives over the next several years.
—John Gartner
Pike Research’s study, “Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment”, analyzes technology and business issues related to the buildout of EV charging infrastructure in global markets. It examines the market for residential, public, private, and workplace charging stations as well as reviewing the key operational and technological impacts of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles on the grid. Analysis includes an in-depth assessment of market drivers and barriers, along with profiles of charging infrastructure vendors and utilities. Detailed forecasts for EV charging equipment are included through 2015.
The world already has millions of charge points unless lobbyists get their way. ..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 25 May 2010 at 11:19 AM
Right now the only charge equipment that should be required is a long or a short extension cord. Automobiles are far too dangerous already to worry much about the few people who will do stupid things while making a connection as they will also be the ones who text whilst driving.
The battery voltage should be selected so all that is needed is a slight variant of the light dimmer switch to prevent overcharging, and this can be made for five dollars or less by the Chinese.
More expensive options that even incorporates stationary batteries could be used where really fast charging is economically desirable or where there is a very weak or no grid at all. A house or other building with cogeneration could use such a facility very effectively.
..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 25 May 2010 at 11:32 AM
Very fast charging of batteries requires far more power than all of the house circuits combined and for such a unit a natural gas or propane powered engine generator is the cheapest and most powerful option.
But it is far better to always have a fuel powered range extender in each and every electric vehicle. That is, it should be a series plug-in-hybrid. Even a tiny engine generator can move a car slowly in stop and go traffic without hindering the flow. ..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 25 May 2010 at 11:42 AM
'"No player can take the risk alone, but if all the actors take it at the same time, that works," France's Ecology Minister, Jean-Louis Borloo, said at a press conference in Paris today. He was accompanied by executives from French carmakers Renault and PSA Peugeot Citroen, both of which have pledged to begin selling electric vehicles in France by 2012.
Borloo said that the funding will help install a million EV charging points by 2015 - mainly in private residences but also in car parks and select locations on busy highway.
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/10/french-ev-plan-calls-for-2-million-cars-4-million-chargers-by-2020.html
Don't Pike cover France?
Posted by: Davemart | 25 May 2010 at 11:59 AM
Those estimates are closer to reality but may be too low. Don't be surprised that China will lead with up to 50% of the worldwide electrified vehicles, batteries and charge points by 2015.
Posted by: HarveyD | 25 May 2010 at 03:49 PM
"The governments of China, Japan, and Korea have all promised to invest in EV charging infrastructure and are providing incentives toward the purchase of EVs."
Western Europe and the US too, except the UK apparently having a hissy fit. As Henry points out this is not such a big deal except for the play to co-opt charge branding. Some 90 percent of early adopters will be happy to charge overnight at discounted electric rates. That's a main reason for early adopters to buy electric.
Quick charge, high capacity charge equipment will not be needed until the batteries are certified to accept very high currents safely. That process itself will take the next five years in the west.
Posted by: sulleny | 25 May 2010 at 06:01 PM
HG if you knew you were going on a long journey with a range extending vehicle, you could force the RE to be on much earlier than it would otherwise. Even with conversion losses and things you only got 30-40mpg it wouldn't matter so much as it would be a rare trip and the bulk of day to day driving would still be done on grid electricity.
Posted by: 3PeaceSweet | 25 May 2010 at 11:12 PM
The ideal EV would be ultra light weight (less than one tonne w/batteries) + ultra low wind and road resistance and ultra efficient e-accessories. It will have a quick charge, 100+ Kwh battery pack with very high energy density (750 to 1500 Wh/Kg). Of course, it may not be on the market much before 2030.
Meanwhile, PHEVs with current + improved battery packs, good for 20 to 60 miles on e-mode, could fill most needs.
Short range (100 Km) EVs could fill many urban needs.
Batteries development and performance have not reach the level required for long range large highway cars. That type of e-car may not be available and/or affordable during the current decade.
Posted by: HarveyD | 26 May 2010 at 03:14 PM
3P,
That is the idea. If commuter cars are the target, then we may need recharging at the other end. The EV can have a 50 mile range, but if I can recharge at work, no problem.
Posted by: SJC | 27 May 2010 at 08:48 AM