IDC Energy Insights Forecasts Plug-in Vehicle Market to Reach 2.7M Cumulative Units By 2015; Revenue Opportunity for Utilities
28 September 2010
IDC Energy Insights forecasts that by 2015 there will be more than 2.7 million PEVs plugged into the global grid, with 885,000 PEVs in North America and more than 780,000 PEVs in Europe.
Unfortunately, IDC says, these vehicles will “cause havoc” on the distribution grid if they start appearing without any preparation by grid managers.
PEVs are coming. Despite many doubters, this oft-promised technology is finally on the verge of becoming a reality, with more than 540,000 vehicles to be sold globally by 2012. The electric utilities industry does not have the luxury of taking a wait-and-see approach to PEVs: it must begin to prepare for their arrival now.
—IDC Energy Insights Research Manager Sam Jaffe
These cars, or “mobile appliances” as the industry should think of them, also represent a significant new source of revenue and, if handled correctly, profit, as well as the chance to run the night-time generation queue more efficiently, according to IDC.
PEVs represent a significant revenue opportunity for electric utilities. But they also bring challenges such as the potential of transformer overload due to PEV clustering and excessive energy borrowing when cars roam outside of their utility region. It is best for utilities to prepare for these potential pitfalls today, instead of waiting for when the trickle of PEVs becomes a flood. We believe the utilities that prepare for this new reality will be the ones that win in the long term.
—Sam Jaffe
The first report of two on the subject, Business Strategy: The Coming Electric Vehicle Rollout: Forecasting the Market, forecasts the size and timing of the PEV rollout in North America, Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world. Included are forecasts of electric vehicle sales from 2011-2015 and PEV penetration scenarios from 2015-2020. The report also provides an overview of soon-to-be-launched PEV models.
The second report, The Coming Electric Vehicle Rollout Part 2: Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utilities, provides an overview of the challenges utilities will face, citing the likely requirement of significant upgrades in distribution equipment, from the addition of separate metering apparatus to the installation of advanced transformers that can handle the increased load on a particular line. Utilities will also need to address the creation of novel rate structures that allow the utility to control how and when the vehicles are charged.
"Despite many doubters, this oft-promised technology is finally on the verge of becoming a reality, with more than 540,000 vehicles to be sold globally by 2012."
Hmmm. WHO exactly is building these half million units? So far there is an announced commitment from GM and Nissan for about 30k units. But it is good news and a fair warning to the utility cos.
This report correctly cautions utilities to prepare. The implication is the utils take over the energy game from petroleum rather rapidly. Which should be a MAJOR political concern right now! We will swap one energy monopoly for another if we do not address the need to DIVERSIFY the energy market today!
Which is of course why we HARP on CHP/distributed energy more than Henry Gibson (bless his heart.) In preparation for the inevitable we would like to see a prototype community - probably in cold country - that installs CHP systems in EV owners' homes.
If as modeled in the BofA tower, a (micro) turbine provides constant genset output - the excess energy can cool the home/fridge and recharge the EV.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 28 September 2010 at 02:48 PM
We will see. After 10 years and 1 million on the road in the U.S. it will have less than 1/10th the impact at lowering imported oil compared to cellulose E10. It will have less than 1% the impact of all new FFVs and M85.
Posted by: SJC | 28 September 2010 at 08:32 PM
PHEVs is a necessary step towards electrification of the common ground vehicle as much as their ancestors (HEVs) were.
HEVs will be produced for about 20 years (1997 to 2017+) and so may PHEVs (2010 to 2030+). In fact, that period may be a lot longer for heavy vehicles. FC vehicles are PHEVs with FC as the genset.
BEVs, the most possible final solution, may overlap both for a while before it becomes the major driver.
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Posted by: HarveyD | 29 September 2010 at 07:34 AM
"without any preparation"
NO one should buy a Leaf, Focus EV or any EV new from a dealer without the local utility in on the process...period. This is not a toaster, but something that will take the power of an electric clothes dryer for 6-8 hours per day times one million cars. This must be a coordinated effort.
Dream all you want about everyone buying EVs real soon now, but that will NOT be the case. We need to reduce imported oil IMMNEDIATELY. The best way to do that is FFV/M85. All new cars sold M85/FFV capable and M85 sold at all fuel stations nationwide. Let's quit playing games with our favorite pet dream, we need something real that will actually work.
Posted by: SJC | 29 September 2010 at 11:44 AM
Unfortunately, the panaceas suggested here aren't all that attractive.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet | 29 September 2010 at 01:47 PM
Cellulosic producer Range Fuels is making methanol at their Soperton plant right now. Their feedstock is forestry scrap.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 29 September 2010 at 10:06 PM
See Robert Rapier's multiple posts on Range Fuels for a quick sobering up: they are many years behind schedule and aren't even producing the product (ethanol) they originally intended.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet | 30 September 2010 at 07:48 AM
Brand new technologies are easy targets for nay sayers. Range has had its share of problems not at all untypical of utterly new technical processes. And EPA's cold feet and irrational GHG fears has not helped.
http://venturebeat.com/2010/08/18/range-fuels-opens-plant-to-commercialize-methanol/
Posted by: Reel$$ | 30 September 2010 at 09:27 AM
It is always easier to criticize than contribute. It is always easier to destroy than to build. It is a doubting Thomas laziness, any one can do it.
Posted by: SJC | 30 September 2010 at 12:52 PM
It's also easier to steal or defraud than to create.
Range Fuels' claims, which they used to get so much money (including taxpayer money through the DOE), were not supported by what they actually knew how to do. Arguably, they were fraudulent. The technical problems were not just foreseeable, they were foreseen by none other than Robert Rapier. Yet this failed to produce caution in the people handing out money. They put out cash to scale up a system which wasn't even working yet.
The payback on investments in Range Fuels are very small, even if you only count gallons of fuel. What's not often understood is that Range Fuels was not the only competitor for investment funds and DOE grants. Other efforts did not get funded because Range Fuels did.
What those other efforts could have given us instead, we will not know for some time if ever.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet | 01 October 2010 at 08:54 AM
The grid can support these vehicles if charged at night. The heat from CHP units can be used to cool and has been used for this purpose for decades if not for over a century. Commercial Models are sold by UTC and others.
The most cost effective way of reducing CO2 production is to have all large or commercial buildings use CHP for heating and cooling and electricity. The same can be done for homes. No requirements or support should be given to renewable energy production until all new and many old commercial or large buildings are fitted with CHP if they are supplied also with natural gas. ..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 04 October 2010 at 01:22 AM