Electrification Coalition releases Fleet Electrification Roadmap; suggests fleet adoption could put a cumulative 200,000 PHEVs and EVs on the road by 2015
15 November 2010
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| The analysis in the EC roadmap concludes that fleet adoption of grid-electric vehicles (PHEVs and EVs) could lead to a cumulative 200,000 units on the road by 2015. Click to enlarge. |
The Electrification Coalition (EC) has released the Fleet Electrification Roadmap, an analysis of the business case for electric-drive technology adoption among the more than 16 million commercial, corporate, and government fleet vehicles in the United States. In 2009, the EC published its Electrification Roadmap, which proposes that by 2040, 75% of the light-duty vehicle miles traveled in the US should be electric miles. (Earlier post.)
The Fleet Roadmap is geared toward demonstrating targeted opportunities in which the lower operating costs of electric drive vehicles, coupled with the operational norms of commercial and government fleets, could make adoption of grid-electric vehicles (GEVs)—i.e., plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles (PHEVs and EVs)—highly attractive. The report includes a detailed examination of commercial and government fleets, highlighting common practices that could make them significant early adopters of GEVs.
Since the Electrification Coalition was formed one year ago, we have made enormous progress in moving electric vehicles to the forefront of the nation’s energy policy conversation. Our main focus continues to be the promotion of a comprehensive policy framework for accelerating consumer adoption of PHEVs and EVs. But it is important to consider all of the applications where electric drive technology makes sense, and what we have found is that the case is very strong for a number of fleet applications over the next five years. Fleet electrification alone will not solve our pressing energy security challenges, but by bringing costs down, it will provide a critical boost to the consumer electric vehicle market.
—Coalition Member Frederick W. Smith, Chairman, President, and CEO of FedEx Corporation
The Fleet Roadmap also identifies the most significant technological challenges facing fleet operators, and recommends targeted public policies to help overcome those challenges, including:
- Tax credits for light-duty PHEVs and EVs deployed in fleets;
- Tax credits for medium- and heavy-duty PHEVs and EVs;
- Clean renewable energy bonds for infrastructure;
- Allow immediate expensing of GEV purchases and supporting infrastructure for operators of certain fleets;
- Guarantee of residual value for the first generation of lithium-ion batteries; and
- Federal fleet electrification, including the Postal Service.
The Fleet Roadmap also presents the results of detailed total cost of ownership modeling for PHEVs and EVs in fleet applications for a number of industries. The analysis suggests that with targeted, temporary policies in place, fleet adoption of PHEVs and EVs could result in a cumulative 200,000 vehicles on the road by 2015.
PRTM, a global management consulting firm, partnered with the Electrification Coalition to provide the electric vehicle market analysis, technical input and life cycle cost modeling for the Fleet Electrification Roadmap.
The new study outlines how Fleet operators can be early adopters of electric drive technology, and serve as a catalyst for the broader consumer market. The combination of high utilization rates, predictable routes, common use of central parking facilities, and total cost of ownership approach to vehicle acquisitions will make EVs and PHEVs attractive to operators of several fleet segments.
These factors combined with implementation of operational innovation and policy levers could lead to EV and PHEV penetration in 2015 as high as 7% of fleet vehicle sales, or a fleet vehicle parc of more than 200,000. Such volumes would utilize some 20% of the announced capacity for advanced batteries and other components, benefiting the entire EV/PHEV sector in accelerating the scale linked cost reductions, and contributing to the faster adoption of EVs and PHEVs among consumers.
—Oliver Hazimeh, Partner and Head of the Global E-Mobility Practice at PRTM
Last week, GE announced plans to purchase 25,000 GEVs by 2015. (Earlier post.)
The Electrification Coalition, launched in November 2009, is committed to promoting policies and actions that facilitate the deployment of electric vehicles on a mass scale in order to combat the economic, environmental, and national security threats posed by US dependence on petroleum.
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That number seems rather low since Nissan already plans production of 200,000 US Production Leafs by the end of 2012.
Posted by: Eletruk | 15 November 2010 at 09:26 AM
If postal services and 100+ large corporations do like GE we could easily see 3x to 5x as many PHEVs/BEVs on the world's roads by 2015.
Could vehicles' manufacturers, specially batteries, keep up?
Posted by: HarveyD | 15 November 2010 at 09:55 AM
This all seems a bit obvious, as if written by an aeolist (who else says "parc"?); a fleet vehicle parc of more than 200,000 EVs is sure to increase EV miles in the short run, but might not be the best way to quick evolution leading to adoption by the masses.
Posted by: ToppaTom | 15 November 2010 at 07:36 PM
Fleet purchases of 200k would work out the kinks in the production systems (esp. of battery packs) without leaving consumers on the after-warranty hook. It would also drive the cost figures down the experience curve a good ways.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet | 15 November 2010 at 08:50 PM
They do highlight the problem of supplying green electricity to power these vehicles. However the solution they propose, bonds for green infrastructure would go on top of the large subsidies we already pay for green energy. That is not an honest solution as it hides the greater expense that green electricity will incur.
Posted by: Donough Shanahan | 15 November 2010 at 11:51 PM
That is not an honest solution as it hides the greater expense that green electricity will incur.
You're right it's not, but brown energy is not known for its honesty either. The costs of nonrenewable, fossil energy go way beyond the bill they send you each month.
Posted by: ai_vin | 16 November 2010 at 01:31 AM
We had a green energy push from '95 to 2000 in California. It was nothing more than a ruse to get electric power deregulation passed and then Enron came in with gaming and looting.
There was suppose to investment for green power, guess what there was none. Green Mountain and others had lots of customers signed up, but there was no money for green power production. Surprise, the people that control the money made sure of that.
Posted by: SJC | 16 November 2010 at 03:33 PM
Once there is a significant fleet of EV/PHEVs the potential to legislate more green energy is greater. As with any lobbyist group - the larger the investment you represent - the more political clout you have.
200k fleet of new technology vehicles will have an influence on electric resources. And we would hope that influence will be used to introduce innovative NEW energy sources such as Combined Heat and Power for small business and residences. Initially using our vast resource of cleaner burning NG.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 16 November 2010 at 05:12 PM
The first two millions units or so are always the arduous to sell. The initial price is inherently higher and often outside the means of the masses. That's has always been the case with most new products. The first large LCD TVs were 10x todays price and only rather well to do families could afford the early models. Similar downward price curve will possibly happen with BEVs batteries. As batteries price go down from $1000+/Kwh to something between $100/Kwh and $200/Kwh and electric accessories and e-motors prices drop by almost as much, BEVs price will fall and could even become cheaper than equivalent ICE units.
It is therefore to everybody's advantage that large corporations and fleets buy the first 2 million PHEVs/BEVs. We could pay $20K less for the same units about 3 years latter.
Posted by: HarveyD | 17 November 2010 at 05:52 PM
"the lower operating costs of electric drive vehicles"
Fleets will do this for economic reasons and advertise how green they are. That is not cynical, just historical trend. Businesses maximize profits and one way is to reduce costs.
Business or personal EVs of any kind will have to have separate meters and taxation. Road taxes paid for by fuel sales will go down, but repair and upgrade costs for roads will go up. Right now it is a small fraction, but over time it adds up. This is as is should be, we get cleaner air and less imported oil which is good for everyone, so perhaps the taxation on EV energy will not be that high.
Posted by: SJC | 18 November 2010 at 11:15 AM