Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales
16 November 2010
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| Total PEV sales in Asia-Pacific. Click to enlarge. |
According to a new report from Pike Research, the various national-level initiatives and programs to promote the awareness of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the Asia-Pacific region will help make the region the largest market worldwide for electrified vehicles, led by strong demand in China, Japan, and Korea.
Unit sales of all electrified vehicles in Asia-Pacific will surpass 1.2 million by 2015 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% (2010-2015), according to the report. China alone will experience a CAGR of 76% to reach 554,114 unit sales of all electrified vehicles by 2015, and will represent 53% of total regional sales.
Pike Research further estimates that charging station sales in Asia-Pacific will reach more than 860,000 units at a CAGR of 91% (2010-2015) and revenue of more than $865 million in 2015. Electrified vehicle shipments will grow rapidly in the region. The Asia-Pacific electrified vehicle market will generate an aggregate demand of nearly 8.8 million kWh of Li-ion batteries and revenue of $4.1 billion in 2015.
National programs encouraging the growth of the PEV sector include the establishment of aggressive goals, subsidies for EV purchasers, research and development support and demonstration projects, tax incentives, regulation and standardization, and public education programs.
Two key drivers of EV adoption include climate concerns and oil prices. The potential for reducing carbon emissions by electrifying transportation has caught the attention of local and national government officials across Asia-Pacific due to concerns about the contribution of transportation emissions to climate change. For example, South Korea faces worsening environmental issues. In 2005, the country had the tenth-highest level of CO2 emissions, as well as the highest CO2 emissions growth rate.
—senior analyst Andy Bae
However, adds Bae, significant barriers to PEV uptake still exist in the form of consumer concerns about effective driving ranges as well as a near-term shortage of charging stations. The latter will be less of a problem over time as public, private, workplace, and residential charge points are installed in the coming years. By 2015, Bae expects that a total of 2.6 million EV charge points will be available to drivers across the region, outnumbering the vehicles themselves.
Pike Research anticipates that China will be the largest Asia-Pacific market for PEVs over the next five years, representing 53% of the region’s total sales during that period. The vast majority of China’s PEV fleet will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), driven by a strong push behind this category by the central government. In contrast, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will be the largest category in Japan, which is expected to be the region’s second-largest market for all PEVs.
Asia-Pacific is also preparing for innovative technologies in charging methods, such as contactless charging and Inductive Power Transfer Systems (IPTS), the report finds. IPTS allows vehicles to collect the electricity sources by way of optimized electromagnetic fields. The sources are transferred directly to the motors or battery packs in an EV from underneath the pavement. IPTS aims to solve common problems with EVs: the limitations of lithium batteries in terms of power capacity, physical weight, legislation, materials price, and long recharging time.
Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicles in Asia-Pacific”, provides an examination of electric vehicles, charging equipment technologies, advanced battery research, government incentives and regulations, and key drivers of market growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The study includes detailed analysis of new vehicle introductions, manufacturer strategies, and forecasts through 2015 for electrified vehicles, charging stations, and advanced vehicle batteries.
Do PEVs include HEVs + PHEVs + BEVs?
If they do, Pike's estimates may be rather conservative. Electrified vehicles sales in China may be twice as much as indicated here.
India is also in Asia and seems to be overlooked by Pike. Vietnam is another Asian high growth country with 85+ million people that should be considered.
If the current trend continues, higher growth rates for the next 10 years will come for many Asian countries and so will electrified vehicles sales. Also, those countries may produce the majority of the advanced batteries required and the lower cost electrified vehicles.
A very interest decades ahead.
Posted by: HarveyD | 16 November 2010 at 07:54 AM
They seem to call PHEV/BEV a PEV. I don't know how you could have an BEV without a plug, but they created a new TLA (three letter acronym) anyway.
This seems to say that they will be popular in Japan and then China. It does not say anything about the U.S.. I don't think that we will have 1 million PHEV/BEVs on the roads in the U.S. by 2015.
Posted by: SJC | 16 November 2010 at 07:10 PM
"Asia-Pacific is also preparing for innovative technologies in charging methods, such as contactless charging and Inductive Power Transfer Systems (IPTS), the report finds."
Umm, this idea was first discovered by Michael Faraday around 1850 - 160 years ago.
Hopefully China will adopt EVs. It will help with their catastrophic air pollution - but further cripple the nation's roads with traffic jams.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 16 November 2010 at 08:14 PM
I wonder how China will power the EVs. They build a new coal fired power plant every week, so I guess the EVs would charge at night when there is less load, but they still burn more coal.
Posted by: SJC | 17 November 2010 at 12:18 PM
Yes they do built a new coal power plant every week but that's not all they are building. China is actually leading the race to make clean energy and is now the world's number one investor in renewable technology;
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/business/energy-environment/31renew.html
The US still leads in clean energy capacity[with 53.4GW to China's 52.5GW in 2009 - in percentage of total power that puts the Chinese and the US at the same 4% renewable] but China is investing twice as much to catch up, in 2009 China spent $34,600,000,000 to America's $18,600,000,000.
Renewable energy investment by country
Rank/Country/2009 investment in $/Renewable Energy Capacity/GigaWatts Percentage total power
SOURCE: Pew Research
1 China 34,600,000,000 52.5 4
2 US 18,600,000,000 53.4 4
3 UK 11,200,000,000 7.5 8.4
4 EU - other 10,800,000,000 12.3 6.7
5 Spain 10,400,000,000 22.4 30.1
6 Brazil 7,400,000,000 9.1 9.8
7 Germany 4,300,000,000 36.2 29
8 Canada 3,300,000,000 7.6 4.3
9 Italy 2,600,000,000 9.8 4.9
10 India 2,300,000,000 16.5 9
11 Mexico 2,100,000,000 3.2 3.3
12 France 1,800,000,000 9.4 8.1
13 Turkey 1,600,000,000 0.6 0.4
14 Australia 1,000,000,000 3.3 3.1
15 Japan 800,000,000 12.9 1.3
16 Indonesia 354,000,000 1.1 4.2
17 South Africa 125,000,000
18 Argentina 80,000,000 0.5 1.9
19 South Korea 20,000,000 0.7 0.8
For the record, another source put the numbers for China higher; http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/07/renewable-energy-policy-update-for-china
I think the higher numbers may be for "installed power capacity" while the lower may be for what's actually used on the grid. ??? Either way by the time China gets all those EVs they should have the clean energy to go with them.
Posted by: ai_vin | 17 November 2010 at 02:17 PM
Correction: When I wrote "Rank/Country/2009 investment in $/Renewable Energy Capacity/GigaWatts Percentage total power" it should have been "Rank/Country/2009 investment in $/Renewable Energy Capacity in GigaWatts/Percentage total power"
Posted by: ai_vin | 17 November 2010 at 02:21 PM
Certain oil rich countries in their enthusiasm to modernize would build great superhighways out to the location of a new development. Then they'd realize they had forgotten to run power, water and sewer lines - and would tear up the road, install the lines and be happy. Until they realized they'd forgotten to run gas lines...
You kinda get the picture.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 18 November 2010 at 08:41 PM
More than 1 million PHEV/BEVs in 5 years, I will believe that when I see it. Five years from now few people will go back and see if this was even close. That will not stop Pike and others from making projections.
Posted by: SJC | 19 November 2010 at 10:07 AM
Here is a story and picture of air quality in China.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40273827/ns/world_news-world_environment/
Posted by: SJC | 19 November 2010 at 11:36 AM