Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales
|Total PEV sales in Asia-Pacific. Click to enlarge.|
According to a new report from Pike Research, the various national-level initiatives and programs to promote the awareness of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the Asia-Pacific region will help make the region the largest market worldwide for electrified vehicles, led by strong demand in China, Japan, and Korea.
Unit sales of all electrified vehicles in Asia-Pacific will surpass 1.2 million by 2015 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% (2010-2015), according to the report. China alone will experience a CAGR of 76% to reach 554,114 unit sales of all electrified vehicles by 2015, and will represent 53% of total regional sales.
Pike Research further estimates that charging station sales in Asia-Pacific will reach more than 860,000 units at a CAGR of 91% (2010-2015) and revenue of more than $865 million in 2015. Electrified vehicle shipments will grow rapidly in the region. The Asia-Pacific electrified vehicle market will generate an aggregate demand of nearly 8.8 million kWh of Li-ion batteries and revenue of $4.1 billion in 2015.
National programs encouraging the growth of the PEV sector include the establishment of aggressive goals, subsidies for EV purchasers, research and development support and demonstration projects, tax incentives, regulation and standardization, and public education programs.
Two key drivers of EV adoption include climate concerns and oil prices. The potential for reducing carbon emissions by electrifying transportation has caught the attention of local and national government officials across Asia-Pacific due to concerns about the contribution of transportation emissions to climate change. For example, South Korea faces worsening environmental issues. In 2005, the country had the tenth-highest level of CO2 emissions, as well as the highest CO2 emissions growth rate.—senior analyst Andy Bae
However, adds Bae, significant barriers to PEV uptake still exist in the form of consumer concerns about effective driving ranges as well as a near-term shortage of charging stations. The latter will be less of a problem over time as public, private, workplace, and residential charge points are installed in the coming years. By 2015, Bae expects that a total of 2.6 million EV charge points will be available to drivers across the region, outnumbering the vehicles themselves.
Pike Research anticipates that China will be the largest Asia-Pacific market for PEVs over the next five years, representing 53% of the region’s total sales during that period. The vast majority of China’s PEV fleet will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), driven by a strong push behind this category by the central government. In contrast, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will be the largest category in Japan, which is expected to be the region’s second-largest market for all PEVs.
Asia-Pacific is also preparing for innovative technologies in charging methods, such as contactless charging and Inductive Power Transfer Systems (IPTS), the report finds. IPTS allows vehicles to collect the electricity sources by way of optimized electromagnetic fields. The sources are transferred directly to the motors or battery packs in an EV from underneath the pavement. IPTS aims to solve common problems with EVs: the limitations of lithium batteries in terms of power capacity, physical weight, legislation, materials price, and long recharging time.
Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicles in Asia-Pacific”, provides an examination of electric vehicles, charging equipment technologies, advanced battery research, government incentives and regulations, and key drivers of market growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The study includes detailed analysis of new vehicle introductions, manufacturer strategies, and forecasts through 2015 for electrified vehicles, charging stations, and advanced vehicle batteries.