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Frost & Sullivan forecasts aggressive Megacities growth; need for right mobility solutions and Mobility Integrators

Top 20 Megacities by 2020. Source: Frost & Sullivan. Click to enlarge.

Frost & Sullivan forecasts that about 4.5 billion people globally will be living in cities by 2025—about 60% of the world’s total population. The growing urban population will lead to the rapid expansion of city borders into neighboring suburbs, resulting in the formation of Megacities. This trend will create a compelling need for the right mobility solutions, the consultancy says.

In a new report, “Impact of Urbanization and Development of Megacities on Mobility and Vehicle Technology Planning”, Frost & Sullivan finds that there will be about 30 Megacities around the world with a total population exceeding 10 million by 2025. Currently there are 22 such Megacities globally. Among the Megacities will be 10 cities from the developing economies.

Just over half the world’s population will be living in Megacities located in emerging economies. In the top 20 Megacities identified by Frost & Sullivan, megacities from emerging economies will witness a CAGR of 4.42% in GDP (PPP) compared to 1.63% CAGR of their counterparts in developed economies.

Megacities and mega regions are developing as a result of uncontrolled urban sprawl; cities are expanding their boundaries by merging two or more closely located suburban towns and cities. This is creating demand for new personal mobility concepts.

This rapid growth will lead to the dynamic expansion of city borders into neighboring suburbs, resulting in more aggressive urban sprawl. This will generate challenges in terms of providing access to public transportation to suburbs and outer regions.

—Frost & Sullivan Industry Analyst Mohamed Mubarak M.M.

China and India will need 50 new cities to accommodate spiralling economic and population growth. By 2025, about 650 million people will be living in the top 49 cities identified by Frost & Sullivan. Half of these will be living in the top 20 Megacities. Indian and Chinese Megacities will witness rapid growth with an average population CAGR of above 0.9% and GDP CAGR of above 6%.

The biggest challenge will pertain to the transportation network. High population density in cities has led to congestion. Unprecedented urban sprawl has resulted in poor access to public transportation in suburban areas. Overcrowding, congestion and socio-economic issues such as ecological overload, unregulated property markets and insufficient housing development are common, says Mubarak, noting that in some cases, the result of rampant urban development has been extreme poverty.

Daily commutes will include the use of different modes of transportation, with users left to make the choice based on their discretion, transportation tools, and other information available. Frost & Sullivan foresees the rise of Mobility Integrators (MI), which will collaborate with various transport providers and facilitators to provide real-time solutions for customers.

According to Frost & Sullivan, Mobility Integrators will act as a single-window solutions provider, collaborating with several entities, including:

  • Transportation Providers (car/bike sharing, train, subway/metro and bus)
  • Online Mobility Service Providers and Online Booking Agencies
  • Online Payment Gateways
  • Technology Solution Providers and Application Developers
  • Telecom Operators

Frost & Sullivan envisions that customers will be able to get all information related to travel, create a travel plan, and schedule it at the click of a button. With the help of technology, the entire transaction can be electronically managed and implemented. Frost & Sullivan believes that Mobility Integrators will take transportation solutions to the next generation by fully integrating the existing long- and short-distance transportation providers to create a single solution.

In the long run, Frost & Sullivan expects vehicle manufacturers to partner with MIs, or in some cases even emerge as a MI, similar to Peugeot with its Mu service in Europe, which offers cars and micro-mobility solutions like scooters and bicycles on rental basis through its agent networks and company-owned dealerships. This will help as a brand differentiation factor and also to promote their vehicles.



Until you stop the population growth everthing else is secondary. just the body heat will cause global warming.

Instead of a tax deduction for kids there should be a child tax. But noboby wants to do that, they need new consumbers to by the Ipad and to pay into the ponzi scheme know as social security


I think "they" are just going by tradition and custom - comfortable, but often flawed guidelines.

A society with zero growth has many new problems to face – albeit not as bad as those we are facing, but population control is difficult.

Realize that as responsible families overpay for Prius's and have fewer children, the world will be populated by big families that own multiple pickup trucks (and vote for more taxes; more taxes "for the rich").

So, tax deduction for kids is outmoded - by both altruistic logic and selfish logic.

Thomas Pedersen

According to Wikipedia, the replacement fertility rate for women in the developed world is 2.1 on average. So as long as we stay under that, the population will decline slowly but steadily. With the exception of USA (2.05), pretty much all developed countries have a fertility rate under 2. Of course having a fertility rate which is too low leads to severe economical problems, as witnessed in much of Europe (Italy, Spain, Greece(!), Germany, the entire former Eastern Block).

This is going to sound very cynical but I will say it anyway: Only the poor people with low resource consumption have many babies. And as such they pose less of a threat to the global resource situation.

As soon as life expectancy and standard of living goes beyond a certain threshold (in any country) the fertility rate goes down sharply. China is (almost done) fighting their way out of poverty, India may follow, whereas Africa is much less certain to ever fight their way out of poverty.

Africa has plenty of resources, but those are being fiercely plundered by the West and now, increasingly, China. There will be little left for the poor Africans if/when they finally lay down the guns and start working for a prosperous future. But at least Africa still has an enormous agricultural potential even after all the oil and rare-Earth metals have been sold to finance 'revolutions'.

Coming back to the topic of the article, it seems to me that mostly American cities experience sprawl. European and Asian mega cities tend to grow with the same high density as in the centers. As a result, personal mobility becomes unnecessary and unpractical, if not impossible. Public transportation is still vastly more efficient than personal transport by car. Actually, in relatively flat high-density cities there is much to be gained from promoting bikes for personal transport. Those could be battery assisted if needed. Biking is a real chore on steep hills but quite efficient and satisfying in flat landscape (Copenhagen and Amsterdam are great examples of that).

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