Boeing forecasts $4T global market for 33,500 new airplanes over next 20 years; Asia Pacific represents largest market by value
|Boeing sees the Asia Pacific region dominating travel growth. Source: Boeing. Click to enlarge.|
Boeing forecasts a $4-trillion market for new aircraft over the next 20 years with a significant increase in forecasted deliveries. That’s according to the Boeing 2011 Current Market Outlook (CMO) released in Paris. The company’s annual commercial aviation market analysis foresees a market for 33,500 new passenger airplanes and freighters between 2011 and 2030.
Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 5.1% annual rate over the long-term and the world fleet is expected to double by 2030. The single-aisle market will continue to see strong demand around the world and is expected to increase its share of the market, according to Boeing. Fleet composition will change significantly by 2030 with single-aisle jets making up 70% of the total, up from 62% in 2010.
|Boeing forecasts strong growth in air traffic driven by emerging markets. The European/North American share of total revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) will shrink from 72% in 1990 and 55% in 2010 to 41% by 2030. Source: Boeing. Click to enlarge.|
Twin-aisle share increases from 19% to 22%; regional jet share drops from 15% to 5%; and large aircraft drop from 4% to 3%.
Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets will lead to a more balanced airplane demand worldwide, according to Boeing. China, which has experienced double-digit growth in gross domestic product in recent years, is forecasted to grow at 7% per annum, while South Asia, which includes India, is forecast to grow at 7.1%.
Asia Pacific is forecasted to need the most new airplanes over the next 20 years and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion. The region will account for more than a third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth.
Boeing projects 11,450 new airplanes flowing to Asia Pacific from 2011–2030; 7,550 to Europe; 7,530 to North America; 2,570 to Latin America; 2,520 to the Middle East; 1,080 to CIS, and 800 to Africa.
European and North American carriers will continue to see demand for replacement airplanes as they retire older, less fuel-efficient models. Boeing predicts 94% of the European fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after 2011, with airplanes that are better for the environment, passengers and the airlines. Forty percent of all new airplanes delivered over the next two decades will be replacements.
The current industry backlog of more than 2,000 twin-aisle aircraft shows the strength of this market segment. Boeing says. The continued growth in long-haul connections will fuel the need for new twin-aisle airplanes due to the increase in new, nonstop markets. With 1,400 deliveries, twin-aisle airplanes will make up 19% of the total European deliveries during the forecast period.
Liberalization, as well as fragmentation and new mid-size, long-range airplanes such as the 787 Dreamliner, the 777-200LR (long range) and 777-300ER (extended range), will increase the need for intermediate twin-aisle jets. Large aircraft, such as the 747-8 Intercontinental, will make up a market segment valued at $270 billion. Rising and volatile fuel prices are expected to continue to challenge the industry.
Boeing projects the world freighter fleet to increase from 1,760 to 3,500 airplanes. Additions to the fleet will include 970 new-production freighters (market value of $250 billion) and 1,990 airplanes converted from passenger models. Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity / 80 tonnes) freighters will account for 690 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons / 40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 280 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons / less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,240 standard-body conversions. On average over the next 20 years, air cargo traffic will grow at a rate of 5.6%.