correction 2016 such have been 2025 in all cases.

USA can hardly produce 20+ million barrels/equivalent/day forever. Without imports, it would run out of crude oil, coal, NG/SG, biomass and other feed stocks 3 to 4 times faster.

To continue at the current increasing consumption rate, USA will have to import more oil and energy in the years and decades to come, unless the current economic crisis is extended by a few more years/decades, like the last big one. That may be a strong possibility, in that case, local reserves could last much longer.

The U.S. produces over 6 million out of the 18 million barrels that is now consumes per day and should be able to do that for a while. We have 200 years of coal at present consumption, so even if we doubled that we would have 100 years. Biomass is sustainable at one billion tons each year as long as the sun shines. That is good for over 1/3 of our gasoline consumed, even without food crops.

The U.S. COULD do fine without any oil imports from anywhere for about 100 years. We also need to have more efficient transportation so that we use less over time. We have gone over all of this over and over many times before, but I guess some just want to keep talking about it.

Well, this is not the universe it is planet Earth complete with greed mongers and war. There may be enough oil in the middle east, but they will not let you have it without paying them a ransom.

If the U.S. gets on fuel economy and fuel plants we could eliminate 4 million barrels per day of OPEC oil. If other countries like China and India want to buy that oil, then that is their business. I suspect they will adopt similar measures and take the pressure off the world oil market.

There used to be 2 million cars in China, then 20 million and now heading to 200 million. Developing countries develop and they like cars, but there is no reason we have to remain dependent on oil to run them. Whether EV or an FFV plug hybrid running on M85 made from biomass, they are BOTH not using petroleum derived fuels.

Good points critta. Wind and Solar energies are cleaner, much more sustainable (no real negative effects on food production and price) and almost unlimited as long as the sun/wind is there and that may be for another 5+ billion years.

Germany has decided to do away with nuclear and fossil fuel power plants and rely on clean power sources in the near future. The first 25% step is already done. Italy and many other countries may follow their example by the end of this decade. Japan is serious looking at the German experience. They (Japan firms) will produce 50+% efficient solar panels by 2016.

USA, with all powerful coal, oil, corn lobbies, will not follow and will keep using low cost dirty energy sources regardless of the negative effects on the people health and well being. China and India have difficult decisions to make. They may not follow Germany's example either.

Eventually, much higher import duties may have to be applied on products made with dirty energy.

Xx...you are correct but about 70% of Americans/Canadian are still convinced that their personal safety is in jeopardy unless they drive a 3+ tonne gas guzzler vehicle. The brain wash implantation was done over 50+ years and is very deep. De-programming may take one or two generations. We still strongly believe that bigger is better.

SJC noted that US Oil consumption is now 18 million barrels per day. I didn't think it had shrunk that much yet, but it had peaked at near 21 million barrels per day early in the decade, according to the International Energy Association. Ironically the non-signer of Kyoto has near met the terms of the Kyoto Protocal while all the signees merely talked a good show, despite the pre-rigged benefit of counting the East Bloc collapse, as help.

The IEA has reported that US Oil demand has peaked, and has been shrinking at an increasing rate every since the early years of the new century. Further the rest of the developed world is now similarly experiencing declining demand, from mid-decade, making room for the developing world to access Oil.

Our efforts at efficiency and substitution have worked; and all other Oil markets but transportation were long in unequivical, outright, decline as substitutes were much easier to develop. We no longer generate electricity with Oil, but we used to do so extensively. Increasingly, we neither heat nor cool our homes with Oil; we do it with other energy sources. Increasingly, we make our polymers and pharmaceuticals from other than Oil. Increasing percentages of our lubricants are created synthetically from silicon compounds.

But even seemingly intransigent Transport demand has now turned negative, as the increased fuel economy of our transport fleets are indeed biting. After 40 years of searching for better technologies and substitutes, we are succeeding and seeing them come to market.

We can expect Transport fuel economy to climb, and Oil demand to continue to decline, rapidly for a while, with the spread of hybridization, electrical substitution, and increased production of bio-fuel substitutes. We are also benefitting, as well, from pure efficiency increases, as our engineers and scientists address issues of combustion efficiency, having previously succeeded in cleansing the combustion process. The American auto fleet has shrunk to common sizes with those available through all the rest of the World. Furthermore our easy licensing of American developed, cleansing technology like catalytic converters, EGR, and sensor development; and the open market access lure of the American Transport market, have allowed and seduced World makers of cars, trucks, locomotives, planes and cargo vessels to incorporate similar improvements for their home markets, despite the recognized lag.

World sized cars from A, B, C, D, and E-segment cars available in America, are now the same as those sold every where else, and are differing only in our insistence on cleaner, less polluting, vehicles that we have mandated.

OTOH, we are nearing Clean Air and Clean Waters that a rich society like ours can demand and secure. Yet another example of American Exceptionalism that lights and inspires the World. I look forward to the national celebration for "Victory for the Envionment", a VE Day indicating our total success in combatting pollution and restoring a pristine environment.

Conservation at its best, despite a still rising population. Soon will come increased supply from the new sources and technologies driving a collapse of Oil prices down to the marginal cost of production, about $60 dollars per barrel. That alone will create the basis for an economic boom for a generation or so.