Oil sands growth to push Canadian crude production to about 4.7M bpd in 2025, up 67% from 2010; in situ production takes lead in 2016
|Canadian oil sands & conventional production. Source: CAPP. Click to enlarge.|
Oil sands growth will drive Canadian crude oil production to about 4.7 million barrels per day by 2025 from 2.8 million bpd in 2010—a 67% increase—according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). This is about 401,000 b/d higher than previously forecast, due primarily to the higher conventional production and the inclusion of some additional in situ projects that were previously put on hold.
The forecast sees oil sands production rising from 1.5 million barrels per day (actual) in 2010 up to 3.7 million barrels per day in 2025. Conventional production is seen dropping slightly from 2010’s 0.9 million barrels per day to 0.7 mbpd in 2010. Pentanes/condensate contribution remains constant at 0.1 mpbd, while the offshore contribution drops from 0.3 mbpd in 2010 to 0.1 mbpd in 2025.
|Canadian and US crude oil pipelines—all proposals. Source: CAPP. Click to enlarge.|
The forecast also breaks out oil sands production by extraction method (mining and drilling) and tracks the amount of domestic upgrading. In 2010, 47% of raw bitumen was derived from in situ projects and 53% from mining operations. Starting in 2016, production from in situ projects will account for the majority of Canadian oil sands production.
Expanding access to existing markets in the US and diversifying into Asian markets are important to enable this production growth and to ensure Canadian producers receive competitive prices for their products.—Greg Stringham, CAPP vice-president of markets and oil sands
|Growth Case: Western Canada oil sands & conventional production. Source: CAPP. Click to enlarge.|
While the economic downturn in 2009 saw many oil sands projects deferred, an improved investment climate, more robust commodity prices and market demand for Canadian crude provided the stimulus for several projects to return to active development in 2010. This trend continues in 2011. Some companies are actively developing oil sands project phases previously placed on hold and investor interest in new projects also continues to increase, CAPP says
Meanwhile, application of new technology has enabled resurgence in production of conventional oil from tight (low permeability) reservoirs.
CAPP’s forecast is based on its annual survey of producers to determine planned production of oil sands, conventional and offshore crude oil through 2025. CAPP used this data along with other inputs from producer companies to illustrate production trends.