Pike Research forecasts global stop-start vehicle sales to reach 37M units annually by 2020; 16:1 ratio over HEVs
|Annual sales of SSVs and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), world markets, 2011-2017. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge.
Global sales of stop-start vehicles (SSVs) will experience strong growth in the coming decade, rising from 3 million units in 2011 to 37.3 million units per year by 2020, according to a new study by Pike Research. At that level, SSVs will represent more than one-third of all light-duty vehicle sales, Pike notes.
Although the technology is not as well known in North America, SSVs are already outselling hybrids globally, with 3.5 vehicles expected to be sold in 2011 for each hybrid. That gap will widen to a 16 to 1 ratio by 2017 because of the lower cost of SSVs compared to HEVs, Pike projects.
Stop-start vehicles (SSVs) (also called micro-hybrids or idle-stop vehicles), enable stopping the engine when the vehicle slows or is idling and subsequent restart, thus requiring more robust batteries and starter systems than are found in conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. SSVs offer 5% to 10% reductions in both fuel consumption and CO2 emissions at a cost premium approximately 10–25% that of full vehicle hybridization.
|“Stop-start vehicles strike an attractive balance between cost and fuel efficiency improvement.”
|—senior analyst John Gartner
Pike Research’s analysis finds that Europe has seen by far the greatest selection of vehicles with stop-start technology and the greatest volume of vehicles sold. North America has experienced a relatively slow penetration of the technology due to less stringent emissions reduction goals and a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) testing cycle that underestimates the benefits of the technology. In Europe, more than two dozen SSV models were available as of early 2011, while in the United States, only three SSV models are for sale.
Western Europe will represent 98% of the 3 million SSVs sold in 2011, according to Pike. Sales of SSVs in North America will pass 1 million sold annually in 2014, and Asia will see 1.4 million SSV units sold in 2013.
By the end of the decade, the minority of models likely to have an engine idling when drivers are stopped will include very small fuel-efficient sub-compacts and larger performance vehicles for which momentarily shutting off the engine is perceived as a negative.—Stop-Start Vehicles
|Annual SSV sales by region. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge.
Pike Research’s report, “Stop-Start Vehicles”, concludes that global revenue from the sales of stop-start batteries will grow from $827 million in 2011 to $8.9 billion in 2020, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%. Pike sees the market being dominated by enhanced flooded batteries (EFBs) and valve regulate lead-acid (VRLA) batteries, along with a small number of Li-ion batteries. Ultracapacitors, although more expensive, have almost unlimited cycle life and will compete with batteries as stop-start energy solutions.