Per gallon federal gasoline and diesel taxes collected at the pump are deposited into the federal Highway Trust Fund (HTF). By law, these excises are the primary revenue source for financing road, bridge and transit projects. The less motor fuel used by drivers, the less revenue generated for improvements financed through the HTF.

Summary of the analysis. Click to enlarge.

The analysis, conducted by Dr. William Buechner, ARTBA vice president of economics & research, assumes the increase in fuel efficiency standards between now and 2016 will occur as required (the Obama Administration in 2010 put in place an increase from an average 28.3 to 34.1 mpg by 2016). It also assumes the mpg requirement will be phased in at 5% per year from 2017 through 2025 as proposed. The baseline for calculating revenue losses is the US Treasury’s February 2009 projections of HTF revenues. As new cars and light trucks are purchased in the future and old ones retired, average fuel economy will improve, reducing the 2009 forecast of gasoline sales and HTF revenues.

The HTF is already taking a revenue hit with the standards put in place in 2010, Buechner says. From fiscal years 2010-2016, he estimates that action will cost the HTF about $9 billion. Thus, if the new standards are enacted, the total loss of revenue for transportation improvements through 2025 is projected at $75 billion.

The impact on the nation’s transportation improvement program, ARTBA President Pete Ruane says, would be like eliminating all federal highway funding for nearly two years.

Given the nation’s overwhelming infrastructure needs, Ruane said the nearly two-year overdue federal highway and transit program reauthorization bill provides an opportunity for Congress and the President to identify all possible options to generate the revenues necessary to maintain and improve the system.