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Boeing forecasts $110B market for commercial airplanes in Russia and CIS over next 20 years

Boeing forecasts that air carriers in Russia and CIS will take delivery of 1,080 new airplanes over the next 20 years at an investment of $110 billion. New airplane deliveries in the region will be driven largely by the need to retire older, less fuel-efficient single-aisle airplanes and regional jets, as airlines replace them with new-generation, more fuel-efficient models.

Demand for airplanes also will be fueled by an increase in the number of people flying to, from and within Russia and CIS. We expect passenger traffic for the region to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent on average.

—Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Cis
Single-aisle aircraft will have a larger share of the market. Source: Boeing. Click to enlarge.

Tinseth said the growing tendency of both business and personal travelers to traverse Russia and CIS will create strong demand for rapid, frequent and reliable coast-to-coast and inter-regional transportation. Driven by this demand, more than 60’ of the new deliveries over the next 20 years will be single-aisle airplanes.

Taking retirements of old airplanes into account, the CIS fleet will grow from 1,140 airplanes today to about 1,400 airplanes by 2030.

Boeing forecasts that single-aisle airplanes will grow from 55’ of the total CIS fleet today to 66’ of the fleet by 2030. Airlines are increasingly focusing on airplane age as fuel-thirsty, older airplanes weigh increasingly on earnings. Increased attention to aviation’s impact on global climate change also will be a factor in selecting airplanes that produce lower carbon emissions.

Twin-aisle fleets will evolve in the region as airlines continue to expand international point-to-point services to a wider range of airport pairs and frequencies. Small- and mid-sized twin-aisle airplanes will represent 18’ of the CIS fleet by 2030. Within the CIS market, Boeing sees a demand for 200 new, efficient twin-aisle airplanes such as its 787 Dreamliner.

Large airplanes (747-size and larger) will not see significant demand in CIS, accounting for only 4% of all deliveries over the next 20 years, according to Boeing. Approximately 40 large airplanes are projected for CIS through 2030.

Boeing also forecasts demand for 160 regional jets in the CIS. These aircraft will be used to accommodate traffic growth to smaller secondary markets within the region and to replace older aircraft.

Comments

Reel$$

Looked at the 787 up close yesterday. Carbon fiber hull has cut 1/3 weight and the fuel per seat dropped 20% compared to aluminum skins. The heads-up display and 787 cockpit are very impressive. ANA takes first delivery next month.

Boeing's public profile mentions little about CO2, but instead emphasizes the effort to develop domestic sources of biofuel that cut petroleum use by 50%. The issue is fuel consumption - not emissions.

ToppaTom

Of COURSE Boeing touts fuel per seat mile and biofuel to reduce oil imports.

What would you expect from a greedy company that deals, lives or dies in the real world.

But do not ignore those that live in a world with a tenuous link to reality.

They have needs also; or maybe it’s just wants; I’m not sure.

Engineer-Poet

You realize you're talking about something I worked on.

Yup, every Dreamliner has a piece of my work in it.

Reel$$

It is an impressive bit of engineering EP. And they have orders for... 800!? If Orville and Wilber could see this...

Zhukova

The dreamliner is nothing to brag about. If you can afford first class, it's probably great. Everyone else still has to worry about getting the middle seat and getting bumped on the arm every five minutes because the designers can't put in a few inches to give each seat two arm rests. Twin-aisles gives normal coach passengers nothing to dream about, it only puts more squeeze on them.

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