Frost & Sullivan forecasts top 12 global auto groups will reduce vehicle platforms by more than 30% by 2020
By 2020 the key 12 global auto OEM groups are expected to reduce their platforms from 223 in 2010 to 154, a reduction of more than 30%, according to analysis by global consulting firm Frost & Sullivan. The top ten platforms will result in a growth from nearly 17 million vehicles in 2010 to more than 33 million by 2020 in the global passenger car and light truck production figures, featuring an increase of 94%. Consequently, by 2020 the key 12 OEM groups are expected to account for an almost 74% share in the same segment.
With more than 95 percent of its total vehicle production by 2020 targeted from just three platforms each, Volkswagen group in the volume segment and Daimler group in the luxury segment globally are expected to have the highest degree of platform standardization and widest range of vehicle models on a single platform. Volkswagen group is expected to surpass the current front runner, Ford group, with its modular toolkit strategy. The German carmaker will produce increased numbers of models and their respective volumes per platform, while efficiently integrating new and innovative technologies.—Partner and Practice Director, Sarwant Singh
By 2020, Daimler, Volkswagen and the Fiat-Chrysler groups respectively, are expected to reduce 60-65% of their platforms. As a result, their average production volume per platform is expected to increase more than four-fold by 2020 compared to 2010. Overall, the average vehicle production per platform is expected to increase at least three-fold by 2020 from current levels of more than 0.24 million units in 2010. And, nine out of the top ten platforms are expected to have volumes in excess of two million units annually by 2020 as against three out of the top ten in 2010.
Emerging Asian economies will certainly be driving platform standardization and modular approach over Europe and North America. India and China are major drivers themselves for OEMs to strongly adopt platform standardization strategy. Approximately 160 of the 800 discrete models to be manufactured and sold globally by top 12 OEM groups between 2010 and 2020 are expected to be manufactured—and also ideally sold—in China, in comparison to 140 discrete models for the United States.
More than 24 of these 800 discrete models, or approximately three percent, are global vehicle models and expected to be manufactured and ideally sold in both China and the Unites State. This clearly shows the focus on emerging economies as key to growth.—Frost & Sullivan Industry Analyst Vishwas Shankar
The study also identified several factors for OEMs to derive a blueprint of their platform standardization strategy. The emerging regions in which the OEMs operate, both produce and sell, and which directly govern their platform standardization and modular strategy, are certainly one. Another factor is the modules themselves used as building blocks of future platforms, and OEMs are expected to bring variations into the vehicle through effective use of electronics. And finally, there is the ability of the OEM groups to quickly understand the perceived benefits gained by having a reduced supplier base as a result of sharing components, systems and modules across platforms.