Frost & Sullivan: market for lightweight materials in automobiles to reach $95.34B in 2017
23 August 2011
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| 2010 global automotive materials market by revenue (top) and volume (bottom). Source: Frost & Sullivan. Click to enlarge. |
A new report from Frost & Sullivan, “Prevalent Substitution Trends within Materials and Chemicals in Automotive Lightweighting”, finds that the lightweight automotive materials market (metals and plastics) earned revenues of $38 billion in 2010 and estimates this will reach $95.34 billion in 2017, driven by the need to conform to environmental regulations.
Governments across the world have been passing laws mandating reductions in fuel consumption and/or carbon emissions. These laws have resulted in the lowering of vehicles’ weight through the replacement of heavy materials in certain systems with lighter alternatives, as the weight of the automobile has a direct bearing on its fuel efficiency. A 10% reduction in vehicle weight offers fuel savings of 5 to 7% (in mpg), provided the vehicle's powertrain is also downsized, Frost & Sullivan notes.
These laws...also challenge OEMs to find innovative solutions to comply with them and still stay profitable.
—Frost & Sullivan Senior Research Analyst Sandeepan Mondal
As an example, the end-of-life directive in Europe compels automakers to minimize the waste created when a vehicle reaches the end of its useful life. On one hand, it encourages the incorporation of recyclable lightweight materials in passenger vehicles and on the other, it hinders the market growth of thermosets and carbon composites.
Lightweight materials do decrease the overall weight and emissions, but also hike the costs considerably. The business of both OEMs and tier-I suppliers took a hit during the economic downturn and in such unfavorable economic conditions, they will unlikely be enthusiastic about shifting from a metal-based assembly to alternative materials, the report suggests.
The Frost & Sullivan study considers the following materials:
- Advanced High-strength Steels (AHSS)
- Aluminum
- Magnesium
- Polypropylene
- Polyamides (PA 6 and PA 66)
- Polyurethanes
- Acrylo-Nitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS)
- Thermosetting Composites
- High-performance Polymers (PA11, PA12, PA46, PPA, PPS, PEEK)
Frost & Sullivan values the 2010 lightweight automotive metals market at $20,698.1 million by revenue and 10.3 million tonnes by volume. The company projects the automotive metals market to grow to $59,805.6 million in 2017 at a CAGR of 16.4%. Aluminum remains at the forefront of automotive metals usage, both in terms of value and volume.
Frost & Sullivan suggests that exterior and body-in-white components are likely to witness more of metal-metal substitution. Aluminum remains the leading material of choice for exterior body panels, whereas for BIW structures, AHSS is expected to replace lower grade steels.
The company values the 2010 automotive plastics market at $17,305.7 million by revenue and 5.5 million tonnes by volume. The total automotive plastics market is predicted to grow to $35,536.2 million in 2017 at a CAGR of 10.8%. Polypropylene remains at the forefront of automotive plastics usage, both in terms of value and volume.
Interior and under-the-hood components are likely to witness more of plastics-plastics substitution, the company suggests. The majority of the plastics are targeting metal replacement given ongoing trend of weight reduction of vehicles.
Among all lightweight materials, aluminum leads in volume and revenue, while polymers are finding an increasing number of takers, mainly due to the low cost-to-performance ratio depending upon part size, shape and complexity. The adoption rate of plastics will be low in structural parts, which require robust impact resistance properties.
Competitive scenario. Frost & Sullivan notes that the automotive metals market is mainly dominated by global conglomerates such as Arcelor-Mittal; POSCO; US Steel; Alcoa; Alcan; US Magnesium; and Dead Sea Magnesium. However, besides providing the basic raw material, some companies also process and mold these materials for the end users, which comprises tier-I suppliers and automotive OEMs.
The automotive plastics market is dominated by global resin suppliers such as Lyndoll-Basell; Borealis; DuPont; Exxon-Mobil; Rhodia; and Sinopec, which not only supply the basic resin but also mold these polymer resins according to the specifications provided by the tier-I suppliers.
Both automotive metals and plastics markets are also populated by alloy makers, die-casters and molders, which function as a conduit between the raw material supplier and the tier-I manufacturer/OEM.
In terms of number of competitors, the automotive metals market has approximately 55 to 100 key suppliers (including both manufacturers and die-casters), according to the report, whereas the automotive plastics market has approximately 25 to 50 prominent suppliers (including resin manufacturers and molders).
Prices in automotive metals and automotive plastics markets are closely linked to global crude oil prices, Frost & Sullivan observes, and any price fluctuation upstream gets reflected in the downstream products and allied product lines.
ROFL $95.34B! Wow, what precision! Come on guys, you can't tell us with that much precision how much was sold last year!
If you're going to make estimates 6 years out, at least have the intelligence to say something like $80 or $90Billion.
Hey John, how much sand is on the beach today?
John: "245.437893221 metric tons per square km" ROFLMAO
Posted by: DaveD | 23 August 2011 at 07:11 AM
The computer generated decimals are not important but doubling+ the use of light weight materials by 2017 is. If coupled with smaller electrified units, the total efficiency could be increased between 2x to 3x. i.e. from 17 mpg to something between 34 mpg and 51 mpg by 2017 or soon thereafter. Since the Toyota Prius III does that already, it should be easily achievable. Applied on the Prius, it should move it in the 70 to 80 mpg bracket.
Posted by: HarveyD | 23 August 2011 at 09:20 AM
This is believable considering the expanding use of carbon fiber reinforced polymer. If you ever had to lug a Mercedes SL hard top off the car - you will appreciate the new roof Tesla uses on the Roadster.
The old Benz roof took two guys or an overhead lift. The Tesla CFRP roof I could lift with one hand - maybe 10 lbs. Just as strong as the old steel roof.
Model S will use aluminum unibody. And with the 300M AER pack - should satisfy anyone's range anxiety.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 23 August 2011 at 11:01 AM
In the not too distant future, it should be possible to build equivalent size BEVs with half the weight of our current ICE vehicles, assuming that batteries will evolve from 150 Wh/Kg to close to 600 Wh/Kg by 2020 or shortly thereafter and light weight materials will be used.
Posted by: HarveyD | 24 August 2011 at 08:10 AM
Future nano-crystalline composites could reduce the drive train, body and and ancillaries weight of future electrified vehicles by 30% to 40%. Lighter electrified vehicles will required smaller, lower cost batteries.
Posted by: HarveyD | 24 August 2011 at 12:41 PM
The $95.34B "precision" shows a lack of scientific reasoning, so the rest is umm, ah, by the same people.
Posted by: ToppaTom | 24 August 2011 at 11:24 PM
@David, hey, give the authors a break. They are BFA grads in creative writing.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 25 August 2011 at 11:57 AM
Is that the same as the creative economics used from 2000 to 2008? It wasn't too successful?
Posted by: HarveyD | 25 August 2011 at 12:06 PM
Harvey, these fiction writers go for drama first. Plausibility second.
Posted by: Reel$$ | 25 August 2011 at 08:01 PM
However, nano-crystalline cellulose is currently being mass produced in converted paper mills. Mixed with plastics, it becomes a very strong light weight material that could replace steel in car bodies.
This could save the wood industry from falling apart with on-going reduction in paper usage. By 2015/2020, many school books, magazines, newspapers, books etc will not have to be printed. Evolved tablets and expanded Wi-Fi will take over. Students will no longer have to carry 20+lbs of books on their back. One 500 g tablet will do a better job. Up-dating the content will be easy, fast and cheap. One tablet could last many years and cover made grades and all subject matters.
Posted by: HarveyD | 26 August 2011 at 10:14 AM