Pike forecasts electric vehicle charging station installations to reach 7.7M worldwide by 2017; price drops of 37%
|Total EV charging station unit sales by region, world markets: 2011-2017. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge.|
A new report from Pike Research forecasts that by 2017 more than 1.5 million locations to charge vehicles will be available in the United States, with a total of 7.7 million locations worldwide. This figure does not include standard electric outlets that have been placed near parking spots; only equipment with safety features for plugging in of PEVs is considered in the report.
The firm anticipates that increasing demand for charge points will be driven in part by a rapid decline in electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) prices, which will require manufacturers to adapt their business models as volumes continue to increase.
Sales of EVSE are strongly correlated with the sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs), Pike notes. The firm had earlier forecast more than 5.1 million PEVs to be sold globally by 2017. (Earlier post.) Regional differences that influence the amount of installed charging infrastructure include the percentage of PEV owners who have access to home charging (versus relying solely on commercial charging spots); the amount of government investment in infrastructure; the split between battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and PHEVs; and the percentage of PEVs owned by fleets, the report says.
Basic electric vehicle supply equipment will quickly become a commodity. EVSE prices will fall by 37% through 2017 as costs are driven lower by competition from large electronics companies as well as volume production. In the face of this trend, manufacturers will integrate their equipment with external storage units, home energy management systems, and smart grid equipment to add value and increase their revenue—senior analyst John Gartner
Gartner adds that the “EV charging as a service” business model is growing as network operators look to provide EVSE location and status information available on demand. He expects that these companies will integrate billing and aggregate power consumption to create new services that will help to stabilize grid operations and create new revenue streams in the process.
The Asia Pacific region will have the highest demand for both PEVs and EVSE, according to Pike, due to the anticipated strong demand for vehicle electrification in China, Japan, Korea, and Australia. Beginning in 2014, more than half of the global total of EVSE will be sold in Asia annually, Pike projects.
The EVSE market is divided between residential (intended for use by a single person or family) and three categories of commercial equipment: workplace, public, and private.
In regions where fewer PEV owners have a residential charger, the ratio of commercial EVSE to vehicles will be higher because of the need to share infrastructure. By 2015, residential EVSE will make up 34% of the market, with nearly as many public charging spots added. In the majority of households where a dedicated parking spot is available, PEV owners will purchase EVSE because of the convenience and lower cost of electricity.
Commercial EVSE will be divided between alternating current (AC) equipment, which is most commonly used for Level 2 EVSE or faster equipment based on regional availability of power, or direct current (DC) charging equipment. DC charging equipment, which can cost 10 times as much as a Level 2 AC charger, will be a niche application in most regions of the world due to the higher cost of equipment and the greater fees associated with on demand charging.
Global sales of DC charging equipment will grow from less than 3,000 units in 2011 to more than 115,000 units annually by 2017. DC EVSE sales will be most prevalent in Asia, where automotive OEMs and equipment manufacturers have embraced CHAdeMO as a de facto standard. Sales in North America will be stunted until OEMs agree on a technology, either CHAdeMO or an alternative being developed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), according to Pike.
Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment”, examines the growing global market for electric vehicle charging equipment and provides market analysis and forecasts for residential, workplace, public, and private charge points. The study also analyzes the key emerging sectors of direct current (DC) charging equipment and wireless EV charging stations. Key industry players are profiled and detailed charging equipment forecasts, segmented by world region and key countries, extend through 2017.