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New Univ. of Wisconsin model shows polar ice caps can recover from warmer climate-induced melting

New University of Washington research indicates that even if Earth warmed enough to melt all polar sea ice, the ice could recover if the planet cooled again. A paper on the work is to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

In the new research, scientists used one of two computer-generated global climate models that accurately reflect the rate of sea-ice loss under current climate conditions, a model so sensitive to warming that it projects the complete loss of September Arctic sea ice by the middle of this century.

However, the model takes several more centuries of warming to completely lose winter sea ice, and doing so required carbon dioxide levels to be gradually raised to a level nearly nine times greater than today. When the model’s carbon dioxide levels then were gradually reduced, temperatures slowly came down and the sea ice eventually returned.

We expected the sea ice to be completely gone in winter at four times the current level of carbon dioxide but we had to raise it by more than eight times. All that carbon dioxide made a very, very warm planet. It was about 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than it is now, which caused the Arctic to be completely free of sea ice in winter.

—Cecilia Bitz, a UW associate professor of atmospheric sciences

In the model, the scientists raised atmospheric carbon dioxide 1% each year, which resulted in doubling the levels of the greenhouse gas about every 70 years. The model began with an atmospheric carbon dioxide level of 355 parts per million (in July the actual figure stood at 392 ppm).

In that scenario, it took about 230 years to reach temperatures at which the Earth was free of sea ice during winter. At that point, atmospheric carbon dioxide was greater than 3,100 parts per million.

Then the model’s carbon dioxide level was reduced at a rate of 1% a year until, eventually, temperatures retreated to closer to today’s levels. Bitz noted that the team’s carbon dioxide-reduction scenario would require more than just a reduction in emissions that could be achieved by placing limits on the burning of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide would have to be drawn out of the atmosphere, either naturally or mechanically.

It is really hard to turn carbon dioxide down in reality like we did in the model. It’s just an exercise, but it’s a useful one to explore the physics of the system.

—Cecilia Bitz

While the lack of a “tipping point” could be considered good news, Bitz said, the increasing greenhouse gases leave plenty of room for concern.

Climate change doesn’t have to exhibit exotic phenomena to be dangerous. The sea ice cover will continue to shrink so long as the Earth continues to warm. We don’t have to hypothesize dramatic phenomena such as tipping points for this situation to become challenging.

—Cecilia Bitz

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, the Davidow Discovery Fund and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.



Methane is 70+ times as potent as CO2, so it would take less than 45 ppm of methane to do the job of 3100 ppm of CO2. We could hit 45 ppm of methane from the bacterial decomposition of organic matter now isolated in permafrost, and concentrations could go up faster than 1% per year.


Frozen methane, in the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, is another major source that has already started to escape (at a faster rate) into the atmosphere. A third growing source is undeclared leaks from many shale gas operations.

Aaron Turpen

Let me get this straight.. Someone (meaning taxpayers) paid a bunch of "scientists" to write a paper stating that when it gets colder, ice forms?

I'm definitely in the wrong racket.

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