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Pike Research forecasts fuel cell vehicle cumulative sales to cross the 1M mark in 2020 with $16.9B in annual revenue

The fuel cell vehicle (FCV) market is now in the ramp-up phase to commercialization, anticipated by automakers to happen around 2015. According to a new report from Pike Research, commercial sales of FCVs will reach 1 million vehicles by 2020, with a cumulative 1.2 million vehicles sold by the end of that year, generating $16.9 billion in annual revenue.

Pike Research’s analysis indicates that, during the pre-commercialization period from 2010 to 2014, approximately 10,000 FCVs will be deployed. Following that phase, the firm forecasts that 57,000 FCVs will be sold in 2015, with sales volumes ramping to 390,000 vehicles annually by 2020. While these latest figures represent a downgrade from Pike Research’s previous FCV forecasts, published in the first quarter of 2010, the firm expects a step change in FCV production levels to occur in 2015.

Early sales will be focused on areas where infrastructure investments have been or are being made, such as the United States (primarily California and the New York City region); Germany; Scandinavia; Japan (mainly Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and Fukuoka); South Korea (primarily around Seoul); and Shanghai, China.

The largest market for FCVs will be the Asia Pacific region, which will account for more than half of total worldwide sales in 2020, according to Pike. The most rapid growth, however, will come in Western Europe, where sales with increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 53%.

The limiting factor for the FCV market will be the availability of hydrogen infrastructure. If current plans for station construction are delayed or abandoned, the rollout of FCVs will be similarly pushed back.

—Pike Research senior analyst Lisa Jerram

Early adoption is likely to be focused in Japan, Germany, and California, where there is significant fueling infrastructure planned. Transit buses have also been used as a test bed for fuel cell technology, though they lag somewhat behind cars in the timeframe for commercial viability. Transit fuel cell buses offer zero emissions and low noise operation, as well as greater fuel efficiency than internal combustion engines. Pike Research’s projections are for commercially viable transit buses to follow that of light-duty vehicles (LDVs), with this market more dependent on subsidies or incentives for adoption than the car market.

Based on the current state of battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and conventional hybrids, Pike believes that light-duty fuel cell cars will not see true demand until the following conditions are met:

  • Costs are significantly reduced;
  • Market conditions or regulations place a premium on zero tailpipe emissions or non-petroleum-based fuels; and
  • Hydrogen infrastructure is scaled up to meet the demand of drivers.

These conditions will likely have to happen simultaneously; this is not an “either/or” set of conditions. The major exception to that ultimatum is cost. Should fuel cell vehicles reach cost parity with diesel-hybrid models, demand could be significantly higher, thereby spurring greater investment in infrastructure.

...In the first two ears of early commercial production phase, deployments will likely be more supply-driven than demand-driven. Consequently, up to 2016, the FCV market will probably only be in the tens of thousands. Pike Research anticipates this phase will resemble the current controlled rollout of BEVs. Automakers will initially be conservative with production numbers as they determine true consumer demand. After the initial rollout, however, production numbers may see a dramatic uptick based on demand.

—Fuel Cell Vehicles

Pike Research’s report, “Fuel Cell Vehicles”, analyzes opportunities and challenges in the development of commercially viable fuel cell cars, buses, and trucks. The report provides an examination of the key market drivers and barriers for FCV development in the face of competition from incumbent internal combustion engine vehicles and new plug-in electric vehicles. The report includes a status update on the progress of fuel cell R&D toward meeting commercial technical and cost targets for cars and buses. The report also covers key countries’ policies promoting development and adoption of FCVs, strategies and plans of major industry players, and discussion of the vehicle segments and drivetrain configurations under development.

The report forecasts global pre-commercial deployments of LDVs and buses through 2014, global commercial sales of LDVs and buses from 2015 through 2020, and potential revenue from fuel cell LDVs from 2015 through 2020.

Comments

Roger Pham

@Bob Wallace,
You've made a very convince case for the high efficiency of BEV's (and PHEV's as well), and for V2G also. But, in order for V2G to work, additional electrical infrastructures must be built. We must first develop Smart Grid and networking of all plugged-in vehicles.

Actually, infrastructure building is a good thing, since unemployment rate remains stubbornly high. Instead of letting Obama wasting another $450B of precious borrowed money on more ineffective economic stimuli, the gov. should makes laws and tax shelters to encourage more PRIVATE investments into building renewable energy infrastructures. The Gov. won't have to spend an extra dime of borrowed money in order to create millions of new jobs into the tax base. Quit raising the debt ceiling. Let the House Speaker Boehner know about this job-creating alternative to kept raising the debt ceiling and going down the Greeks path!

Different drivers will have different vehicular choices. Those with the money and can afford FCV's that may be bigger and have more range will be happy forking out 50-80 grands for a van-size FCV. People with lesser means will be very content with a 25-30-grand PHEV that they can plug in at night and at work.

When the cost of solar electricity will be low enough, the difference in efficiencies between FCV and BEV will no longer be the deciding factor to choose one type over the other. Instead, other factors will come into play, such as combating Global Warming.
How so?
Without FCV's and stored H2, in the winter when solar activity is low, one must burn fossil fuels to generate electricity. This will contribute further to global warming. If excess solar and wind electricity collected in the Springs and Falls will be stored as H2, then this H2 can be used to generate electricity in the winter to charge the BEV's and PHEV's.

Now, let's compare the efficiency of FCV's and BEV's when stored H2, produced in another season, will be used to generate electricity in the winter:
Let's use your number of BEV's 81% efficiency grid to wheel. 81% x 57% (Combined-cycle Gas Turbine Generator)= 46% efficiency, or .81 x .7 (Fuel Cell Generator)= 56% efficiency.
For FCV's, H2 tank to wheel is still the same 70% efficiency, unchanged.

So, if we really care about combating global warming, then both FCV's and BEV's have comparable overall efficiencies. If we don't care about global warming, then there will be enough Natural Gas reserve to last for another 100 years, and the whole point of BEV's and FCV's will be moot. Just adapt the current vehicle fleet to use NG like the Honda NG Civic, and we will still have energy security issue licked, when 1/2 of the fleet will use domestic oil (drill, baby, drill), and the other 1/2 of the fleet will use domestic NG (Frac, baby, Frac).

Bob Wallace

Roger, I'm sorry to see you wander into "Obama wasting another $450B of precious borrowed money on more ineffective economic stimulus" territory. That's such a distortion of facts that it will make me question input from you in the future.

--

Infrastructure for V2G won't be much, as I understand it. Residences will be getting smart meters with communication ability whether or not they buy an EV. All that will be needed is an inverter to transform the vehicle DC to grid AC. Apparently utility companies believe that they can save money by renting car batteries and that calculation must take into account any needed infrastructure.

--

Looking at the price of the Tesla S "luxury sedan" and considering the likely decrease in battery prices I would guess that a van-sized EV would be cheaper than a FCV. And the 'fuel' will almost certainly be cheaper.

The larger/heavier the vehicle, the more important fuel price becomes.

--

With a wide-spread grid we'll likely use more wind in the winter and since demand drops as the weather cools I don't think we'll need to be burning coal. Also hydro picks up in the fall in many locations.

We might store vast amounts of H2 for winter use, but I sort of doubt it. And, if we do store H2 for winter, I would expect that we would store it for use in power generation. If we, for example, pumped some huge salt dome full of H2 during the summer and wanted to use it in FCVs in the winter we would have to transport it. When we bring transportation into the mix we create another significant cost.

Hydrogen, to me, has potential as a storage technique. Perhaps it can compete with utility scale batteries.

Until someone can produce FCVs for significantly less money than EVs I don't see them having a future. EVs are simply going to win on operating costs. And they are going to be first to market, thus blocking newcomers who can't enter with significant advantages.

Engineer-Poet

Bob: You're not only correct, the same position was endorsed by none other than Dr. Ulf Bossel of the European Fuel Cell Forum for very similar calculations.

I don't think the high-pressure electrolyzers are a panacea. Hydrogen cars require pressures up to as much as 10,000 PSI to get acceptably small tanks. The storage tanks will have to be at similar if not higher pressures. A fuelling station will need to store enough for hundreds of vehicles. Now consider the sheer mechanical energy of that much compressed gas. NOBODY is going to want one within half a mile, and they'll make very tempting terrorist targets.

But the real kicker is that H2 and batteries are just ways to get electricity from the grid to an on-board electric motor. If Hanazawa's scheme for wiring roads works, we can dispense with most of that and use bulk storage techniques like CAES to handle rush-hour peaks.

Roger Pham

@Bob Wallace,
Likewise, Bob, if you have no anger nor resentment at a clue-less Pres. who kept running budget deficits by over-spending on Wall Street bailouts, budget-bankrupting ObamaCare, and ineffective economic stimuli...etc, without accomplishing anything...hats off to you!!! (for being an emotionaless super-human)

Don't worry about the price tag of future FCV's, Bob, the auto mfg's will take care of that. Four years from now, ICE-HEV's may gain enough efficiency that will allow them to run on H2 for commute,as well as NG on the same compressed-storage tank to triple the driving range.

Heck, simply downsize the ICE in a current HEV to 1/2 of its size now, while doubling the electric motor and the battery, will be enough to boost its efficiency significantly more, may be by 30-50%, enough efficiency to run on H2. H2-ICE will gain even more efficiency with direct inject and ultra-lean burn, with thermal efficiency can be above 50% in an optimized engine. No post-combustion emission control needed when running on H2 on ultra-lean mode. When running on high-power stoichiometric combustion on H2, the exhaust can simply be diverted to a 3-way catalytic converter to reduce the NOx at high power. 3-way Cat. is needed for clean up CO and HC when burning NG and Petrol.

When you double the size of the electric motor and the battery, you don't need a 6-speed transmission like in the Kia Optima Hybrid anymore. A simple 2-3-speed transmission will suffice, along with a 2-cylinder engine instead of 4 cylinders, to compensate for the other extra expenses.

Roger Pham

For H2 storage, 10,000 psi is not needed if adsorptive material is used inside the tank. Smaller stations serving 70-100 fillups per day can store enough H2 in underground tanks that can last the whole winter season. The key here is smaller stations more dispersed instead of a very large stations. Larger stations may be built near underground H2 depot with H2 pipelines supplying it, well into the future, when the H2 economy will be well-developed.

The high pressures required by the tanks means that they are practically bullet-proof and bomb-proof.

Current petrol filling stations would make a more tempting terrorist target. By contrast, in a H2 station, if you let the nozzle open, the H2 will fled skyward like a homesick angel, and nothing will happen even if you would light a match. The flow of H2 will be so fast that it will extinguish any flame immediately.

The Hydrogen economy will be very safe, very non-polluting, and very affordable!

Bob Wallace

Actually Roger, I'm a great admirer of our President.

He rescued two of our major auto manufacturers and had GM and Chrysler gone down they might have taken Ford along with them as many of Ford's suppliers would have also gone under.

I'm also pleased at how he was able to pull our financial chestnuts out of the fire with the bank bailout which has, in the end, cost us very little money compared to the jobs it saved.

I'm extremely happy with the new health care bill. No longer will 40 million people have to go without health care insurance. No longer with 40,000 Americans die each year simply because they could not afford health care.

No longer will insurance companies be able to deny someone coverage because they had a previous medical problem. No longer will insurance companies be able to kick you and me off our policies if we get really sick and start costing them money.

I'm extremely glad to see that our hospitals will be freed of the cost of operating emergency rooms as walk-in health clinics for those who can't obtain health insurance. I'm glad to see that we are going to have many more health practitioners trained and more clinics opened. I'm glad to know that paperwork will be simplified and that fraud will be hunted.

Overall, I realize that our health costs will decrease because more people are going to get early diagnosis and treatment.

And I'm glad that President Obama was able to get as much stimulus money as he got. Now we need more.

Corporations and rich people are sitting on record amounts of cash. And the are not creating jobs. Period.

We need our economy stimulated and that can happen only three ways - corporate hiring (ain't happening), increased consumer spending (ain't happening) or government job creation.

We need to spend some money and create jobs. We need to rehire teachers, fire fighters and police officers. We need to spend money on infrastructure to put construction people back to work. We need to help new promising companies get up and going.

We do that and people will go back to work and then they'll pay taxes to refund our treasury.

Do the Republican thing, cut government spending which simply means eliminating jobs, and we dig ourselves even deeper into the economic hole.

Go back and read the history of the Great Depression.

We got into that mess because of lack of regulation and uncontrolled speculation. We messed around for a couple of years going nowhere. FDR got the economy stimulated and things picked up. Republicans and conservatives put a damper on stimulus programs and we dropped into another hole. We got out of that hole only because WWII forced us to spend money and create jobs.

Learn form history or suffer through it again....

wintermane2000

Bob if you look closely you will find we were falling decades ago. We just managed to patch it and keep the beast running... No living president had a real chance to stop it.

As for fuel cell cars...

What little we know about fuel cell stacks for cars indicates that in mass production.. IF they can get platinum loads down to under 10 grams per stack... They will wind up cheaper then a fossil fuel engine system due to co2 and other regs... rather soon.. 2020-2025 depending on co2 regs.

At this point they already have that stack in the lab and its been said it should come out 2015-2018 timeframe.

When that happens you can expect factories to start belting out millions of stacks for busses ttactors dumptrucks basicaly everything that moves that is BIG.. and you can expect a fair number of stacks will make it into cars and trucks.

Roger Pham

Agree with you, Bob, that right now, Obama and the Dem is better than the alternative party. No doubt about that. No promising candidate in the campaign pipeline, either! I've always been a fan of FDR and the New Deal!

However, it would be much better that the Gov. would pass laws and tax shelter (stick and carrot approach) to get PRIVATE investments to rebuild the economy, instead of getting deeper into deficits.
A gradually-rising tariffs on all goods from countries with unfair advantages would discourage out-sourcing and more investments in domestic manufacturing. Schedule a gradual rise in the future fossil fuel cost would spur more investments in renewable energy deveopment.
A Free-market health care system with universal access would provide health care for all citizens without depending on health insurance that will escalate cost out of control.
Google the topic with my name on it in GCC for more details.
Reform the legal system to avoid the propensity for frivolous lawsuits that discourage people from doing business in the USA.
Streamline regulations to reduce the legal burdens on small businesses etc...

Realistically, with the way the US political system is structured, what I've proposed has little chance of being understood nor acted upon.

Thank you for your patience in hearing me out throughout this topic.

Bob Wallace


Taxes are not causing business from expanding and hiring. One does not hold back from increasing their profit because they will get to keep to only 85% of it rather than 90%.

Businesses are holding back because they see no market. Until people start spending money, until businesses can sell more than they currently make, businesses won't expand.

--

If we institute tariffs on goods we import we have to expect tariffs erected against goods we export. Tariffs added to the cost of our goods would make them not be competitive in the world market. We'd kill ourselves.

--

Universal health care was not an option. The votes in Congress were not available. We get almost all other problems fixed and profits for insurance companies are constrained. If more problems exist we can revisit health care later. (Part of the new health care bill fixed problems with Medicare - the Medicare bill was written 50 years ago.)

You might want to read the provisions in the health care law. I doubt one person in a hundred realizes how many problems are covered....

http://www.healthcare.gov/law/about/order/byyear.html

HealthyBreeze

@Everybody;

So, let's sum up what we've approximately arrived at in this thread.

**Batteries are much more efficient at storing Kwh than H2.
**Batteries are more efficient at delivering Kwh to the motor than Fuel Cells.
**Although batteries are costly and bulky, they are likely to come down in cost and size before Fuel Cells (counting H2 storage) do.

Given these truths...any report predicting millions of FC near term in passenger cars such as the report by Pike Research is suspect on the face of it as being catastrophically flawed.
****It's that kind of fixation on one part of the system and ignoring the bad math on the rest that led to Solyndra being taken seriously when it never should have been.
I'm all for exploring high-risk, high-reward research, but I don't see the high-reward with FC for passenger cars.

Reel$$

@Bob W. impressive defense of the President's goals and achievements. Health insurance alone was stratifying social structure in the US - reforming insurance practices has helped millions.

@Roger, "If we don't care about global warming, then there will be enough Natural Gas reserve to last for another 100 years, and the whole point of BEV's and FCV's will be moot. Just adapt the current vehicle fleet to use NG like the Honda NG Civic, and we will still have energy security issue licked..."

Except we care about conserving the environment which is the foundation AGW stands on. Replacing fossil fuels with sustainable resources goes well beyond global warming and security - it is healthy stewardship of the Earth. And conservation in the Roosevelt meaning of leaving wilderness, wildlife and habitat untrammeled by human presence.

Even if we have global cooling we need to conserve our habitat and resources and steward the planet to benefit all indigenous life. Besides, where is the NG infrastructure for 200M (or global 1B) automobiles??

Roger Pham

@Bob,
Roll back the higher tax rates of Clinton or Reagan era. Provide tax shelters for those who invest in US manufacturing or Green technology.

NO tariff for countries with similar env. standards and worker protection standards. Form a Free-Trade Zone first, then together the whole Zone will put tariffs on countries with unfair cost advantage. Our exporters and importers can freely trade with members of the Zone having almost 1 billion people.

Obamacare with heavy-handed mandates, price control, and centralized planning reeks of socialistic, communistic grab of our private health care system, and will kill it, resulting in mediocre care with delayed acccess as with any socialized health care system in the world have shown. The very fact that ObamaCare forbid ins co from setting the yearly limit and lifetime of coverage on a policy means that they want to kill private insurance and private health care. Let's learn from the failures and the hollow promises of communism in recent history.

Only a Free-Market Health Care system with Universal Access can simultaneously solve our current health care cost escalation crisis without allowing destructive Communistic grab.

Roger Pham

@HealthyBreeze,
You are right about Batteries having higher efficiency for short-term and limited capacity storage. However, compressed H2 storage is 100x cheaper and does not lose charge like battery does from one season to another. When the cost of renewable energy is getting lower and lower, then efficiency will not be as important as other attributes, and total system cost will come into play.

The entire automotive industry are betting on FCV's, so they must have a lot of tricks up their sleeves to make FCV's affordable.

@Reel$$,
I'm glad that you value environmental preservation as much as I do. You're referring to Teddy Roosevelt, who loved outdoor activities, right?
The message for the rich people is that after you've earned a certain amount of money, earning more money will not be as important as having a safe and clean environment to live in, and a stable and harmonious society in which to show off their wealth and enjoy their wealth! Social and environmental sustainability is the key for the rich to enjoy their wealth, so, they must put in their share to ensure sustainability.

Engineer-Poet

Roger, if you think that H2 tanks can hold a season's worth of energy underground, you're dreaming. First, they have a small fraction of the energy density of gasoline tanks, so they'll be physically unable to hold that much energy. Second, boiler codes require pressure vessels over a small capacity to be inspected regularly, which requires them to be above ground.

Causing a large gasoline explosion is difficult; the fuel has to be atomized and mixed in the proper air/fuel ratio. Hydrogen requires no atomization and has much wider flammability limits. The heat radiation from a large hydrogen fire could cause burns and start secondary fires at a considerable distance.

There's no fix for this. This is the surprise sinkhole in the middle of the "hydrogen highway". The solutions are batteries and wired roads.

The entire automotive industry are betting on FCV's, so they must have a lot of tricks up their sleeves to make FCV's affordable.
Governments are paying the auto industry to do demo projects with hydrogen. Meanwhile, hybrids and BEVs are built with private funds and sold to the public today.

Roger Pham

E-P,
I tried to post a very easy way for terrorist to wreak havoc on petrol stations, but GCC did not accept it, therefore was edited out.
With the use of fiberoptic cameras now, the H2 tank can be inspected from the inside using endoscopic camera. Heck, built-in piezo-electric sensors on the tank's periphery can detect early tank deformation and send a notification, as well as automatic venting to prevent rupture.

I don't dispute the usefulness of batteries and wired roads. I simply see opportunities for H2 to help solve the current global warming and energy crisis, and a large number of energy experts seem to agree.

The effort to halt GHG emission cannot wait. Once CO2 is released, it will stay in the air and reach equilibrium with the ocean, until plants can incorporate the CO2 into biomass. Then, this biomass will either be consumed or decay, re-releasing this CO2 back into the air...perpetuating the CO2 level in the atmosphere, EVEN after we halt further CO2 emission.

Therefore, to remove CO2 from the air permanently, carbohydrate biomass must be dehydrogenated into carbon (charcoal), then this carbon cannot be burned, but must be put back into the ground, where it hopefully stay for good. This will take considerable amount of effort and expenses. It may be more economical to not combust the carbon and hydrocarbon sequestered in the grounds hundreds of millions of years ago, now that solar PV energy and wind energy can compete with coal electricity.

Unless there will be another alternative energy carrier magically enter the scene, H2 and battery electricity will have to lead the way. Battery alone cannot do it for mass storage of intermittent solar and wind electricity! Not at several hundred dollars per kWh with degradation of capacity with repeated use, and with reduction of charge when stored seasonally.
At only a few dollars per kWh and no degradation of capacity with repeated use, and no reduction of charge from one season to another, compressed H2 storage is the way for now!

Bob Wallace

Roger, it looks like hydrogen is going to get a tryout as storage system for wind farms.

http://cleantechnica.com/2011/10/12/hydrogen-storage-fuel-cell-system-to-smooth-out-intermittent-wind-power-in-germany/

Seeing how we've already got some utility scale battery installations we'll now get to see a horse race to see which can deliver at the best price.

--

Hydrogen is attractive for buses because it is cheaper than diesel and does not cause the same pollution problems.

However, that cheap hydrogen comes from natural gas so it does nothing for cutting CO2.

Can H2 from renewables become as cheap as H2 from renewables? That, IMO, is going to be the critical element. We've already got battery buses and they are going to be running on cheap electricity. The winner will be the one who brings 'fuel' and purchase/operating costs lowest.

Bob Wallace

Roger, when I read this I have to wonder if you know what you're talking about...

"Obamacare with heavy-handed mandates, price control, and centralized planning reeks of socialistic, communistic grab of our private health care system, and will kill it, resulting in mediocre care with delayed acccess as with any socialized health care system in the world have shown. The very fact that ObamaCare forbid ins co from setting the yearly limit and lifetime of coverage on a policy means that they want to kill private insurance and private health care. Let's learn from the failures and the hollow promises of communism in recent history.

Only a Free-Market Health Care system with Universal Access can simultaneously solve our current health care cost escalation crisis without allowing destructive Communistic grab."

The new health bill does not set prices, take over private insurance companies, or restrict insurance companies on the policies that they want to sell, except the policies they might want to offer in the Exchange.

The mandate - that's simply a "pull your own weight and quit being a freeloader" requirement. People who now don't have health insurance have a choice. They can purchase a policy from a private insurance company (with tremendous help in making the payments) or they can pay an annual fee to help offset the cost of their leaning on emergency rooms for their health care.

You're calling for a "Free-Market Health Care system with Universal Access" and that's exactly what the health care bill gives you. Insurance companies are free to operate with some constraints. They will no longer be able to collect your payments for decades and then kick you off your policy when you get sick. And they have to offer insurance to all, not just to the healthy. Those requirements apply to all companies, so no one gets an economic disadvantage.

In addition, by expanding Medicaid coverage and offering very generous payment subsidies for those making less money we will achieve universal health care. Every single person who is legally in the US will have access to a good quality, affordable health care insurance policy.

I suspect you didn't bother to read the site I linked that explained the health care legislation.

DaveD

Bob and Roger,

Actually, the efficiency of the batteries going in and out is getting higher. There are some coming on the market that are over 97% efficient, round trip. And the electronics are going to be much more efficient as well with the advent of gallium nitride.

These new chips are so efficient that your laptop will no longer need a charging brick but instead will use a power chip built into the laptop itself.

Imagine what these things will do to the efficiency and size of power electronics for autos and grid equipment.

HealthyBreeze

@RogerPham,

H2 boils off. H2 molecules are so small that it's very difficult to contain them effectively. If your scheme requires that H2 stored in July stays in the tank until February, it seems like the losses would added up.

More importantly, we don't have to reinvent every aspect of the energy system to make a massive improvement. We need not turn every home into an energy-autonomous homestead off the grid year round, to have radically improved the air and the economy. BEV, even running off of fossile fuel power plants still takes a lot of carbon out of the air and improves the trade balance.

Roger Pham

@Bob,
I understand very well ObamaCare, thank you. The restriction that is being placed on Health Ins Co. will drive 'em out of business, including the restriction their premium rate. I suspect that you only looked at what they promised but did not take the time to analyze how hollow these promises were!

Imagine this: People would pay for utility fee with utility insurance, pay a premium for utility coverage monthly, then they can use electricity, water, and gas without metering. Guess what'll happen? Usage will escalate, driving up premiums...Then the poor won't be able to afford Utility coverage...Then ObamUtility will kick in...covering all those can't afford monthly premium...then limit how much ins can charge for utility ins...Private Ins out of business...Gov. take over...Socialistic Communistic grab...A formula for bankruptcy!

Imagine further: Food is essential for life, even more so than health care. People will then be forced to buy food insurance coverage...then eat all they want...driving up food ins. coverage...then the poor can't afford food ins...then ObamoFood kicks in, covering food ins. for all the poors...then limit food ins. premium collection, driving food ins co. out of businesss...Gov. takes over...

Free-Market Health Care with Universal Coverage:

The only way to curb health spending cost is to allow everyone with a basic health credit account (HCA) and a health saving account (HSA). Those without an income will have a basic credit account to spend on health expenses. When they work, they will be allowed voluntarily to contribute to a health saving account, after paying for the HCA debt. The more they contribute to the HSA, the higher the HCA will get, giving an incentive to voluntary contribution to the HSA, WITHOUT coersion, without mandate to buy any type of insurance!!!.

For catastrophic health cost, people can pool their HCA and HSA into a risk sharing pool, in which up to ~25% of the HCA and HSA of all members can be used to cover the catastrophic health cost of one very sick memeber. For a pool of 100 members, million-dollar coverage may be possible.

Computerized Data Mining of billing patterns of all health care providers will allow the consumers to choose which provider is more cost effective, or who is expensive but very good, and who is down-right quackery! Web-based feedback system allows people to rate different providers. Those who are computer illiterate will get free help from a HealthCare Advisor of their choice.

With a defined budget of their own money and with the ability to find cost-effective providers, people will get the best of care for the least cost! People will spend according to their means. They are motivated to live heathier to save on health cost. Unused fund on health saving accounts can be donated to others. The system is entirely self-funded. No additional taxpayer's money will be needed. Cost will be drastically reduced because the cost of administering credit card is ony ~2-3% instead of 30% adm. cost for health insurance. The saving in adm. cost alone will more than pay for all those uninsured today!

There, universal health care described in only 1-3 paragraphs instead of 2,400-page legal jargons that will benefit no one but the legal profession.

Of course, Medicare must be kept to avoid political opposition from the elderlies, except for those seniors who want to convert their Medicare benefit to the equivalence of HSA so that they can donate the unused portion of their HSA to their children or grandchildren.

HSA is inheritable. The health care expenses in the last 6 month of life can be more than all the amount spent previousy...Seniors who has a terminal condition may wish to avoid heroic treatments in order to pass on the rest of their HSA to the future generations.

Roger Pham

I should hasten to add to the above that 15-20% of dollar contribution to the HSA will be deducted to pay for those who do not work and hence can't pay off their HCA's debt. However, the benefit to the HSA contribution is that, the higher the contribution to a person's HSA, the higher the Health Credit Limit will be, subjected to income verification. A person with low income cannot use someone else's money to put high contribution to their HSA account in order to get a higher HCA's credit limit!

Reel$$

@Roger, Teddy Roosevelt did not just love "outdoor activities." He made concrete law to preserve some 230,000,000 acres of land!

"In utilizing and conserving the natural resources of the Nation, the one characteristic more essential than any other is foresight.... The conservation of our natural resources and their proper use constitute the fundamental problem which underlies almost every other problem of our national life." T. Roosevelt, 1907

This is the meaning of conservation. Regardless of "global warming" and its sycophants who have forgotten what conservation means.

Read about this American environmental President:

http://www.theodoreroosevelt.org/life/conservation.htm

wintermane2000

All this useless math and blather is very much useless.

The simple fact is it will be cheap enough and there are enough people who WANT it to create a big market for it. Thats all you need.

Engineer-Poet

Dreaming as usual. People wanting something will not overrule the laws of physics or create an infrastructure out of nothing.

Reel$$

People talking about the "laws of physics" is like people talking about the Platonic cosmology and the anthropocentric universe.

"What we don't know could fill the universe." some guy

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