Pike forecasts worldwide revenue from fuel cells and hydrogen will reach $785M million in 2012; interest in fuel cell vehicles re-emerges
The total size of the global hydrogen and fuel cell market—including revenues from fuel cells and from hydrogen for fuel cells and internal combustion engines (ICEs)—will reach $785 million in 2012, according to a new white paper from Pike Research.
The white paper describes ten key trends for the hydrogen and fuel cell industry in 2012. In addition to the projected $785M in global revenue, one of the trends Pike identifies is a re-emergence of interest in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) as the limitations of battery-electric vehicles are realized. That interest, however, will be unlikely to result in rollouts of trial vehicles this year, Pike suggests.
With the continued disappointment in the price of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and a rate of adoption lower than initially forecast, Pike Research forecasts that 2012 will start to see a return of interest in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Such interest will be seen mainly in regions that have been showing commitments to hydrogen infrastructure. This means that Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Europe in general will show greater interest in FCEVs than the United States.
Automakers have resolutely stuck to their forecasts of the initial rollout of FCEVs between 2013 and 2015. Therefore, 2012 will be the year when increased movement related to stabilizing the supply chain and ramping up the PR machine should be expected. In terms of numbers of on-the-road FCEVs, however, 2012 will unlikely to see any rollout of demonstration trial vehicles.—“The Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Industries: Ten Trends to Watch in 2012 and Beyond”
A commercial rollout of FCEVs in 2015 will require the opening of a number of major new hydrogen refueling stations. Pike suggests that more than ten such stations—centered on projected areas of initial sales—will likely open, each with the capacity to refuel more than a thousand vehicles daily.
Pike points to the launch in the United Kingdom of UKH2Mobility (earlier post) as indicative of the return to interest in FCEVs.
A key market that is taking shape is the use of fuel cells for residential combined heat and power (resCHP) applications, a market that is experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7%. Meanwhile, Pike Research expects that remote sensing will be the breakout market for small fuel cells in 2012, as they are well-suited for applications including dam monitoring, seismic monitoring, wildlife monitoring, weather stations, and others.
However, other sectors do not look so promising, according to Pike Research’s analysis—one example is the portable fuel cell market, particularly for consumer electronics applications, which the firm anticipates will suffer disappointment in 2012 after a recent renewal of the hype in this sector.
The fuel cell and hydrogen industries are once again entering a year of growth, as seen in the revenue projections for the first time surpassing three-quarters of a billion dollars, but market participants also face significant challenges. As well as growth in the current markets, we are also starting to see new markets emerging—including, in 2012, the remote sensing sector, with increasing demand for fit-for-purpose products from the fuel cell industry.—Kerry-Ann Adamson, research director
|Pike Research 10 trends to watch in 2012|
|1||The resCHP market will gather momentum|
|2||Rhetoric and reality will diverge in the hydrogen energy storage market|
|3||Flight to third-party countries for manufacturing will increase|
|4||Hype will be followed by disappointment in the portable fuel cell sector|
|5||Interest in FCEVs will reemerge as the limitations of BEVs are realized|
|6||Buyouts and corporate investments in both fuel cells and hydrogen will continue|
|7||Remote sensing will be the 2012 breakout fuel cell market|
|8||Renewables, storage, and fuel cells will converge in the off-grid power market|
|9||Energy service company (ESCO) and independent power producer (IPP) tie-ups with utilities will increase|
|10||Fuel cell and hydrogen industries will generate $785 million in revenue during 2012|