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Gallup poll: 46% of Americans attribute this past warm winter to natural variation, 30% to global warming

A new Gallup poll has found that 79% of Americans agree that this winter has been warmer than usual in their local area; 46% attribute the cause to normal year-to-year variation in temperatures, while 30% attribute it to global warming. The remaining 3% go for an unspecified cause.

There was clear variation in the result by region. More than nine in 10 of those living in the East (92%) and Midwest (95%) say this winter was warmer than usual, compared with 77% in the South and 55% in the West.

Republicans and independents are more likely to say the warmer temperatures are due to normal year-to-year temperature variations (51% each); 19% and 28% of the two groups, respectively, say it was warmer due to global warming. Democrats are more likely to say the cause is global warming (43%) than natural fluctuation (37%).

Gallup noted that Republicans are less likely than Democrats and independents to live in the East, and slightly more likely to live in the South, which may partially explain why Republicans are less likely than either independents or Democrats to have perceived a warmer-than-usual winter.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted 8-11 March 8-11 2012, with a random sample of 1,024 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.



Its a shame that a few percent at least did nor realise that it is an invalid question, as any one year cannot be directly attributed to overall trends.


Beat me to it Davemart - though there may have been some classified amongst the 3% by the pollsters.


Scientists have clearly documented global warming for decades.

If it's between "What deficit" Ron/the Bush circus(both acts -"read my lips.."/"mission accomplished" and the vast majority of the world's scientists - OMG, who's right?


The purpose of polls is not to find out what the facts are but to find out what you need to say to get elected. Or, at least, it is to measure the success, or lack there of, attempts to manipulate opinion. From this poll you can tell that the folks who work to influence puplic opinion that CO2 warming is a hoax are having some success.


Science is not a democracy. If science was a democracy, we would still think Earth is flat.


Four in 10 Americans believe God created humans in their present form about 10,000 years ago.


We already knew the misanthropists are right.


Another big problem with polls of Americans is their information base, namely - FauxNews. "Consider the facts: more than twice as many Americans watch Fox News as watch CNN, the next most popular cable news channel, and almost five times as many as watch MSNBC. This growing audience also puts significant faith in the credibility of the news delivered by Fox, even while trust in other major news outlets declines. Fox is among the most trusted news outlets in the US, despite countless demonstrable instances of their anchors and pundits spreading misinformation." Like Bill O'Reilly claiming science can't explain the tides.

Studies have already shown that FauxNews leaves its viewers knowing less than those who watch the Comedy Channel.

Roger Pham

Actually, both camps are right. Natural variation plays a part while the overall trend has been global warming for the past several decades that correlates closely to the escalation of CO2 level release to the atmosphere. We can't do much about nature's variation, but we can try to reduce and eventually halt the release of fossil fuel's CO2 into the atmosphere. Much remains to be done to educate the public about the effect of CO2 as a GHG, and how practical and affordable renewable energy will be in the near future. There will be no longer need to sacrifice our high standard of living in order to halt future CO2 releaase.


The wrong wing has their own propaganda machine and continues to affect what passes for minds in their crowd.


In our area, 100% agree that this has been the warmest winter. One full week with +25C in mid-March has never been seen before. Leaves out before the arrival of Spring has never been seen either. Ice and snow all gone before the end of Winter is also something new. Green lawns in March is almost unbelievable.

As to the reasons, naysayers will see the hand of God, others will see Solar increased activities, others will look for nina or nino but sooner or latter the majority will start to look to man-made reasons.

Our meteorologists blame increased fresh water in the North Atlantic Ocean from Greenland's melting Ice Cap and its effect on the Jet Stream. We had never seen the Jet Stream so far North as we had it this very warm month of March.

What effect would have a cold spell and a snow storm on trees with early small leaves, specially fruit trees?

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