Lux research are clueless... seriously! The price TODAY is lower than what they're forecasting in 8 years time... These are SPONSORED reports, no question!

@Davemart

Unfortunately you cannot use the battery lease to estimate the cost of the battery because it is quite clear to me that Renault use some of the proceeds from the Zoe to subsidize the battery lease. EVs without battery packs costs less to manufacture than similar sized gasoline vehicles. The Zoe is priced at €21,000 before government subsidies and that is about €5000 more than the car cost to build to my best knowledge. You still have a 15,000 USD battery pack in the Zoe or about 681 USD per kWh for the Zoe battery. The $397/kWh in 2020 sounds reasonably to me and will also make the Zoe more affordable at that time.

This is more like the reality, without another breakthrough like vanadium, sulfur or other method that doubles the density and reduces the cost per Wh, there will be no major reduction in prices.

'Unfortunately you cannot use the battery lease to estimate the cost of the battery because it is quite clear to me that Renault use some of the proceeds from the Zoe to subsidize the battery lease.'

And exactly how have you determined that?

Setting up the production lines and low volume production of the parts peculiar to electric vehicles are both expensive, and Renault are doing the electric version at about the same price as the diesel, so to me it seems that much of the 5,000 Euro subsidy will be soaked up by that.

We can also come out with figures in the $400-500kwh ballpark for car batteries in other ways.
The difference in the price of the Tesla S for the 40kwh packs and 60kwh packs is $10,000, and at least the charger is also upgraded between the two models.

Here is DB on batttery prices:
'Several Automakers have told us that they have already seen bids in the mid-$400/kWh range for large volume EV battery pack contracts in the 2011/2012 time-period (implying a 30% decline).'

http://www.scribd.com/doc/28104500/Deutsche-Bank-Electric-Car-Analysis-Batteries

'Renault is building a 150k unit factory for the Zoe. This is not low volume.'

There is a difference between 'is building' and 'has built.'
Nissan Renault themselves say that they need around 500,000-1 million Ev's a year production to match the costs of a diesel car without subsidy, and it is that that they are trying to achieve by getting to high volume as soon as possible.

This year production of Nissan/Renault will be around 80,000 vehicles, which is getting there but a long way short.
The set up costs are being incurred right now,too.

So I can't see how most of the subsidy is not going to the car rather than the battery at the moment, although there might be $100/kwh subsidy in the battery price.
That's a hefty $2200 for a Zoe, and the remaining $4,000 or so of subsidy will be needed for the rest of the car IMO.

Things will change when we actually hit mass production instread of are building up for it, but subsidies will evaporate on a similar timescale, the first 200,000 in the US per company are all that are eligible for subsidy, for instance.

Davemart

By December 2013 the Zoe will be produced at an annual rate of 150k units and the Leaf will hit the 250k unit rate. I don’t expect the Zoe’s price to drop at that time but I expect the Leaf will drop by a few thousands USD to perhaps 32k USD for a model that include the fast charging ability.

I recall Ghosn said they would need to make a million units per year as a company (Renault/Nissan combined) in order to be price competitive with combustion vehicles all costs considered. That would still mean EVs that cost more than combustion cars but EVs will be able to make it up over the life of the car because of saved fuel and maintenance costs.

I am very optimistic and think Renault/Nissan could reach the one million target by 2017/2018 or some 3 years ahead of their most relevant competitors, GM, VW Toyota etc. At that time the Leaf may drop to 26 to 27k USD.

On eBay, this 1.44kWh battery works out at approx $508 per kWh. With FREE shipping!

Link

@Henrik:
My remarks were directed more to the US than Europe, as the battery is bundled into the purchase price there, and cars start off cheaper than in Europe so being competitive is tough.
In Europe battery leasing by Renault makes the picture very different, as when they become available there would seem no reason why bigger packs should not be offered as an option, with the Zoe using the Better Place specification for the battery location and size, which although in itself an expensive waste of time for the swap function means that other batteries should be able to be dropped in as long as they are compliant.
There were rumours that the Zoe was to have 30kwh, which proved false but with energy density improving there would seem no reason why a larger battery should not be offered as an option, perhaps in a Zoe Gordino, the go-faster brand for Renault.

As for charging their Chameleon charger makes fast charging stations cheap as it is AC, and you can do it at 22kw and 43kw.

Up until they decide to equalise taxes electric vehicles have of course a much larger price advantage than in the States.

The dollars per (nominal) kWh alone is not a sufficient metric to be able to predict general market acceptance of PHEVs or EVs. A $500 per kWh battery that craps out after 500 cycles has a capital cost of $1 per kWh stored, more if its DOD is less than 100%. A better metric for a battery is dollars per kWh of actual storage capability divided by cycle life. An EV will go as far on 1 kWh as a hybrid equivalent would go on 1/10 of a gallon of gasoline, or 1/14 of a gallon of diesel. So, for a given set of assumed fuel and electricity costs, this metric can be used to determine if an EV will never pay back the capital cost of the battery, i.e. it’s an expensive toy (niche market).

For example, a battery, with cost of $397 per useable kWh and a cycle life of 1,500, would have a capital cost of 26.5¢ per cycle. This metric can be applied to specific cases for an EV versus a gas hybrid equivalent, as follows. In the US, with gasoline at $3.70 per gallon and electricity at 12¢ per kWh, each battery cycle will an energy cost saving of 25¢, not enough to cover the capital cost of 26.5¢. However, in England, with gasoline around $7.00 per gallon and electricity about 20¢ per kWh, each cycle yields a energy cost saving of 50¢, which would cover the capital cost and leave a more than adequate 23.5¢ per cycle for financing and maintenance costs.

How adequate? Well, ignoring comparative maintenance costs, and assuming 250 cycles per year, the pay back on the $397 purchase price at 50¢ per cycle would be 794 cycles or 3.18 years on a 6-year life, or a 20% ROI. Interestingly, as I recall, car companies insist that any candidate improvement to a car design, e.g., stainless steel exhaust system, needs to pay for itself within 3 years before it is approved.

It should also be noted that a battery with the same capital cost of 26.5¢ per cycle, but costing 2/3 of $397 per kWh with a cycle life of 1,000, would have a payback of 2.12 years, or an ROI of about 26.5%, excluding maintenance. Furthermore, the replacement battery pack purchased 4 years after the initial battery pack should be better and cheaper than the original pack, particularly if the packs are standardized. So much for USABC’s long life requirement(s), which is seemingly a convenient excuse for automaker foot dragging on EVs.

Anne,
The other side of the coin on DOD is avoiding charging to 100% whenever possible.
Charging schedules have this facility, at least for Nissan/Renault, so when you get your Zoe assuming you are worried about looking after the battery, which you may not since it is leased (;-)), you would do an average day's runaround of 35 mile or so on around 7 or 8kwh.
That means that you could easily usually charge up to 80% and not deplete it below 40% for the majority of the time.
The increasing availability of fast chargers would mean that the risk of running out is suddenly you had to undertake a longer trip would be much reduced.
Under that charging regime the battery is going to last, according to my calculations, absolutely yonks! ;-)

Volts users get between 38 and 1850 mpg after a few months. The majority seems to get over 900 mpg. Those below 100 mpg do not have the ideal driving distance and those below 50 mpg should have HEVs instead of PHEV.

Prius users very rarely have to change the battery pack, even after 500,000 Km. Many of today's Lithium battery pack have not (yet) been optimized to last. Future batteries will last 15+ years with appropriate control and protection ccts.

During the first 40+ years, most ICEs experienced a multitude of problems adversely affecting their duration. It may take 20 to 30 years to have the ideal trouble free battery packs but that day will come.

Northern Piker may refer to the "bricking" of a single Tesla Roadster when its negligent owner failed to keep the vehicle plugged in over a long storage period. That appears to be about two months starting at 50% SOC according to Tesla.

The Model S battery pack will include a "Deep Sleep" mode, presumably with some kind of Pb backup battery which will reawaken internal electronics even if the pack is totally flat.

The Model S first build of 6,500 units is presold, indicating a healthy appetite for high end EVs. The plan is to build 20k Model S units in 2013. EV market will likely stay this way until pack costs drop under $250/kWh as Henrik suggests.

Tesla plans to unveil a network of 90kW DC supercharger stations which will charge the 85kWh pack in 45 minutes (from 50% SOC.) Supercharging is free for vehicle lifetime with the 85kWh pack, an option with the 60kW pack.