The study finds that the subsidies required for hydrogen (fuel+infrastructure) are estimated to be about $30 billion, depending on technology status. It tells us there is no agreement on how a hydrogen refueling infrastructure should be, if not has been, developed. However, it suggests we need $30 billion.
Hydrogen may be extracted from natural gas by steam reforming or from water by electrolysis. Fundamental laws of physics expose the weakness of a hydrogen economy. Energy cannot be created, it can only be converted from one state to another, and some energy is always lost during the conversion. Hydrogen is an artificial energy carrier, and can never compete with its own energy source, either natural gas or electricity, in a sustainable future. Why spend $30 billion on a unknown status and known facts.

"all its saying is given what we have now fuel cell cars/trucks are going to gain 30% market share"

That is a very big assumption on your part and not at all obvious. NG is more likely to take that 30% market share...just more practical and easier to implement than trying to build the infrastructure for H2 and then steam reforming the NG into H2.

Whoever decided to spend taxpayer money projecting 40 years ahead should be fired. Projecting even five years ahead is dubious.

ng isnt all that much better co2 wise then gasoline so as the co2 regs tighten ng cars will also go away.

That's false. A CNG vehicle held title of "the greenest car in the U.S." for 8 years and only lost the title to an EV.

http://green.autoblog.com/2012/02/07/mitsubishi-i-steals-aceees-greenest-car-of-the-year-title-fro/

The Hydrogen economy would only make economic sense if H2 is produced from renewable energy.

With the earth getting noticeably warmer every year, with economic destruction of climate change and rising sea level, the time will come when enough people will realize that something must be done about the escalating CO2 level in the atmosphere.

The switch to all renewable energy will happen, and sooner than most of us realize, because renewable energy is getting cheaper and cheaper real fast, because sun light and wind are free. There will be a need to store excess renewable energy in the springs and falls to be used in the winters. That'll be when H2 economy will come in handy. High-voltage power lines will transmitt excess electricity from renewable energy from one region to another,to be stored locally by means of H2 made from electrolysis of water.

With increasing unemployment world-wide due to computerization and job outsourcing, many governments world-wide will connect the dots between cheap renewable energy, climate change, and job creation and start deployment of renewable energy collectors and H2 and BEV infrastructures. Fossil-fuels will be gradually phased out, just like we are consuming less and less tobacco these days, by gradually increasing taxes on fossil fuels.

When one considers all the above, then the prediction of H2-Vehicles taking 30-70% market share by 2050 is very reasonable. The rest of non-H2-vehicles will likely be BEV's. CNG vehicles will only be a transitional step, and will be phased out, due to climate change. The younger generations are increasingly aware of the harm of rising CO2 level, learning from schools and the mass media. When they will be mature enough to be in charge, we will see the Green Economy happening fast. Teach the Children well! The older generations can't be expected to learn much.

by 2050, H2 will still be made from reforming methane.. and in the process emitting just as much CO2.

If you are going to have a compressed gas powered vehicle then just use methane directly, or what is more likely is synthetic liquid fuel made from methane.. either fossil or renewable methane. With high capacity batteries, quick charging and roadbed wireless power transmission there is just no need for hydrogen.

Can a jet run efficiently on methanol?

"Plug-in vehicle baseline of $450/kWh through 2050"

Any shred of credibility was lost after this.

What seems to have been forgotten is the lower 'well'-to-wheel efficiency of H2 vehicles. Electrolysis, compression, storage, in all these steps energy is lost.

Producing 1 kg of high pressure hydrogen costs around 60 kWh with today's technology. The Honda Clarity travels 120 km per kg, so well-to-wheel that works out to 2 km per kWh. That is less than half of what a battery electric vehicle can drive on 1 kWh.

This will make an H2 vehicle more than twice as expensive to operate, because the whole H2 infrastructure and storing and transporting the stuff is more expensive than electric vehicle recharging infrastructure. The grid is already in place.

The authors seem to have focused solely on vehicle price and forgotten about operational costs.

Other developments in the battery electric vehicle space have been conveniently left out too.

First of all there is wireless charging, which will take car ownership to new levels of convenience that people will not likely give up. Switching to an H2 car will force them back into 20th century habits, meaning they will have to regularly stop at these antiquated petrol stations where you attach a hose to your vehicle to transfer some substance into it.

And then there is V2G, which will lower operational costs even further because as an owner you can earn some money back.

The $150/kWh battery cost is foreseen by the authors for 2050 or perhaps 2030. What if it is 2015? According to the reports, there is overcapacity brewing. By 2015 there will be a vast oversupply, pushing prices far below the current levels of $375 per kWh. Remember how PV has been dismissed by its critics for years as 'too expensive'. Look at the sharp declines in price over the past 3 years. There is no fundamental reason why this cannot happen for batteries too.

I'm afraid the battery electric vehicle has a head start that the hydrogen car will likely never be able to catch up.

The only use for hydrogen that makes economic sense imo is the seasonal storage of solar energy.

Excuse me, room-temperature liquids.

I believe DARPA-E should sponsor a standard wireless power format for cars, light and heavy duty trucks. A standard frequency and a standard communications (for billing) protocol.

@ Roger Pham | May 16, 2012 at 07:44 PM

"Teach the Children well!"

What you really mean is Brain wash the children well!

The old generation has a mind of its own which is good.

Roger

We now have technology that can electrolyze water and compress the H2 all in one step at nearly 80% efficiency, without any mechanical compressor.

I stand by my numbers. 60 kWh per kg of H2, 120 km per kg of H2. The math is simple. Can you point me to something better? Of source, it is conceivable and expected that the H2 chain will become more efficient. The worrying aspect is that the authors are completely silent about that.

You forget that only solar energy suffers seasonal difference. Wait, wind does too, but it is the other way around: winter is windier than summer. The amount of seasonal shifting of solar energy will be a minor percentage of the total consumption and is therefore not a large factor in the overall efficiency of the BEV.

Rapid charging of BEV's will put a severe disturbance on the grid, which is already stressed out as it is, and won't take much for transformers to blow.¨

Sorry, but this is nothing but cheap FUD, which should be beneath you. Rollout of EV's will be gradual, giving energy companies time to adapt. Just as they did when people started buying washing machines, televisions, tumble driers, electric kettles, air conditioners, micro wave ovens. It is weird that no one argued against all these conveniences because they would cause the grid to collapse. These kind of 'concerns' are only reserved for EV's.

No matter how affordable batteries will get, H2 will still hold an advantage of rapid fill up within minutes.

Wrong. The Toshiba SCiB battery can fast charge in less than 10 minutes. Technology for even faster charge exists. And you overrate the importance of superfast charging because you're stuck in ICE thinking: drive until the warning light comes on and then find a petrol station to fill up. EV's will be not be use that way and most people will need fast charging only a few times per year when they take a long road trip. You don't make 800 km trips on a daily basis.