## Boeing forecasts $4.5T market for 34,000 new airplanes over next 20 years ##### 04 July 2012 Boeing projects a$4.5-trillion market for 34,000 new airplanes over the next 20 years as the current world fleet doubles in size, according to the Boeing 2012 Current Market Outlook (CMO). The company’s annual forecast reflects the strength of the commercial aviation market.

Airline traffic is forecasted to grow at a 5% annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2%. The single-aisle market, served by Boeing’s Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX, will continue its robust growth. Widebodies, such as Boeing’s 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner, will account for almost $2.5 trillion dollars worth of new airplane deliveries with 40% of the demand for these long-range airplanes coming from Asian airlines. New Airplane Deliveries: 2012-2031 Airplane Type Total Deliveries$ Value (Billions)
Single-aisle 23,240 $2,030 Twin-aisle 7,950$2,080
Large 790 $280 Regional jets 2,020$80

Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years. Low cost carriers, with their ability to stimulate traffic with low fares, are growing faster than the market as a whole. There is also a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient airplanes. Replacement accounts for 41% of new deliveries in the forecast.

The market for new airplanes is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries.

New Airplane Deliveries: 2012-2031
Region Airplanes
Asia Pacific 12,030
Europe 7,760
North America 7,290
Latin America 2,510
Middle East 2,370
C.I.S. 1,140
Africa 900
World Total 34,000

Freighter Fleet Forecast: 2012 to 2031. As the cargo market remains sluggish, Boeing has revised downward its projection for freighters over the next 20 years. Still, the world freighter fleet is projected to nearly double from 1,740 aircraft today to 3,200 at the end of the forecast period. Additions to the fleet will include 940 new-production freighters (market value of \$250 billion) and 1,820 airplanes converted from passenger models.

Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity / 80 tonnes) freighters will account for 680 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons / 40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 260 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons / less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,120 standard-body conversions.

Boeing’s CMO—introduced in the 1960s—is the longest running complete worldwide jet forecast. The report and a feature, which provides an interactive database of forecast numbers, can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.