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Lux Research: grid storage battery cost to fall to $500/kWh by 2022, short of expectations

Lithium-ion and molten-salt battery costs will approach $500/kWh by 2022, reducing the high capital cost of emerging grid storage technologies. However, expectations of half that level will remain unrealistic for at least a decade, according to the Lux Research report “Grid Storage Battery Cost Breakdown: Exploring Paths to Accelerate Adoption.”

Lux Research’s baseline scenarios for grid-tied systems indicate that by 2022 Li-ion batteries will reach $506/kWh; sodium nickel chloride, or ZEBRA, batteries will approach $473/kWh; and vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) will hit $783/kWh.

Molten-salt batteries hold the most potential to be the cheapest large-scale systems, with manufacturing improvements playing the largest role, accounting for 95% of the cost reduction. Li-ion batteries are dependent on cost reductions from mass production while molten-salt batteries and VRFBs rely on long discharge durations to reduce costs.

—Brian Warshay, Lux Research Associate

To gain an understanding of the key cost components for each technology, Lux Research analysts built production cost models of Li-ion, ZEBRA, and VRFB systems for small- to large-scale grid storage systems, and assessed drivers that will facilitate cost reduction and constraints to innovative material and manufacturing approaches. Among their findings:

  • Cost of Li-ion batteries will dip 45% by 2022. Li-ion batteries may lose market share to cheaper molten-salt batteries for large projects but will remain the system of choice for space-constrained projects because of their high energy density.

  • ZEBRAs need productivity gains. ZEBRA battery manufacturing accounts for between 50% and 60% of the total system costs, primarily because of the cost of processing its key raw materials. Improved manufacturing productivity and better capacity utilization will account for 95% of the expected reduction in costs by 2022 to $473/kWh.

  • Vertical integration is key to VRFB costs. Vertical integration and exclusive supply agreements will be key to managing the cost of vanadium pentoxide, a metal with a widely variable historical market price and uncertain future. Future cost estimates for vanadium pentoxide range from $15/kg to $30/kg, from the current $13.20/kg. At the upper end of the range, VRFB cost will actually increase to $1,205/kWh.

The report is part of the Lux Research Grid Storage Intelligence service.



Are you talking about battery costs or battery prices?
A 100Ah Thundersky 3.6V cell sells for $107.50.
3.6V x 100Ah = 360Wh or 0.36kWh
Roughly 3 cells = 1kWh at $107.50/cell = $322,50.



There is a HUGE difference between the cost of the cells and the total bill for the whole thing up and running.


Evidently someone doesen't know what they're talking about.
The elementary component of a battery pack is a cell. The battery pack consists of an array of cells switched in parallel and in series as needed.
An electric drive train is comprised of a battery pack, BMS, inverter/controller, regen. facilities and electric motor.
"Lithium-ion and molten-salt battery costs will approach $500/kWh by 2022, reducing the high capital cost of emerging grid storage technologies."
And just imagine, the total price of the complete car is even more.


Um this isnt a car and even in a car yes they do indeed count the controller and all the other pack bits into the total along with installation and warrantee costs.

On top of all that its likely in the application they only count USABLE kwh not max kwh of the cells in the system.

Roger Pham

You can buy on the internet now LiFePO4 battery pack of ~1-2 kWh capacity, complete with electronic controller, ready to go on a e-bike, for ~$350/kWh or less. That's a complete battery pack with everything and ready to go, not just the cells.


Grid storage batteries do indeed differ from those used in cars, as they don't have to worry about weight.
In spite of concerns about DOD and cycle life, that is why they tend to be cheaper.

You couldn't make it up, but then again you don't have to, as Lux Research does it for you.

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