if the price of battery has to fall to 160$/KWh then EV vehicle are a long way out...

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News from Europe: UK man trades Leaf for Volt over range anxiety

By Huw Evans

In the United Kingdom, Dan Green (not his real name), decided, after 18 months of ownership that his Nissan Leaf was too stressful and so opted to trade it in for the British version of the Chevy Volt, a Vauxhall Ampera.

Asked why, Green cited the fact that he was tired of running out of charge, which doubled journey times and significantly increased his stress levels since he often worried if he would make it to his destination.

Part of the reason for his decision stems from the fact that in Green’s eyes, development of an EV infrastructure simply hasn’t been rapid enough to support the sales of the cars themselves, which means that the prospect of running out of range was a major concern.

“Although the tow truck drivers were friendly,” Green said, “being taken away on a flatbed truck turns a 1.5 hour journey into a 3.5 hour one. That’s okay if you’re on your own, but it doesn’t impress your passengers and doesn’t help the cause of electric cars.”

He also said that on busy motorways (freeways) or during rush hour, driving slower to maximize range endurance was also particularly stressful, not only irritating other motorists but also proving quite dangerous, especially considering that many drivers travel at speeds of 75-85 mph on motorways in the UK.

As a result, he decided enough was enough and went to a Vauxhall dealer to trade the Leaf in on a new Ampera. “They gave me an offer I couldn’t refuse,” he said, no doubt aided by the fact Green paid in cash, giving him extra bargaining power.

However, despite his new found motoring freedom, thanks to the Ampera’s onboard gasoline generator, Green does say there are some things he misses about the Leaf, namely its onboard CarWings telematics and satellite navigation system. “I really hate the satellite navigation in the Ampera,” he says, though “now I don’t have to worry about plugging in any more,” [getting 250 miles per gallon equivalent] is simply a much more enjoyable and relaxing experience.

Batteries energy density will be 2x to 4x higher by 2020/2025 and their price (in Asia) will be lower in about the same proportions.

With 500+ Km range and 5 minutes recharges, drivers range anxiety will be past history.

EVs will be very competitive, specially where gasoline and/or other liquid fuels are over $6/gal US which may be the case in about 80+% of the world.

Fuel in the UK is currently at about £1.33/litre.
I have calculated that at current battery costs it would have to hit about £2/litre for electric vehicles to be cost competitive with equal taxation in respect to fuel.
Of course costs also have to drop to cover the £5,000 subsidy when that is removed.
The insured cost of the 22kwh battery in the Renault Kangoo is £7,500.
That works out to around $550kwh, so McKinsey's estimate of cost comparability at around $250kwh effective battery cost at 70% DOD or $175kwh nominal sounds about right.

With the subsidy in purchase price and no tax on fuel then the Kangoo van should be profitable right now.

It is difficult to say on cars, as it depends which cars you compare it to, and, for instance, you can get a brand new Skoda Citigo for about the price of the battery in the Kangoo.

Cont. with above:
For a BEV with a LiFePO4 battery that cannot get charged 2,000-3,000 times in 10 years due to less-frequent use, the calendar life issue will not allow the owner to recoup the purchasing cost of the battery, so the cost per kWh of electricity will be much higher.

The solution is to use LiFePO4 battery in a PHEV instead, and use the heck out of it within 5-7 years, with 2000-3000 charging cycles, and replace with a new pack before calendar life issue will become a problem.

@Harvey,
Actually, no change at all will be required before PHEV's will become competitive and common place. Just keep gasoline at $3.50/gallon to give GM, Ford, and Toyota et al the incentive to keep coming out with better and better PHEV's with lower cost and more luggage space and lighter. The upcoming Ford Cmax Energi PHEV is quite appealing with lower cost and more luggage space than the pioneering GM Volt. With 20-mi AER, a person can plug-in the car twice a day to realize a 40-mi daily commute.

Work places should provide parkings with e-sockets, analogous to handicap parking requirement mandated by law, that only allows PHEV's to park.

An option for a plug-out would make PHEV's even more appealing in regions of frequent power outages, or for people who like to do camping outdoor, without having to haul and heavy and noisy and polluting portable generator.

Once people will figure out the true savings of a PHEV and the conveniences and advantages, PHEV's sales will take off like i-phones and i-pads. An equivalence of Steve Jobs for the auto industry would make this happen real fast, to make people to rush out and buy a PHEV just for the glamour and conveniences and advantages of owning a PHEV, instead of for any altruistic environmentalism or cost saving.

@Engineer-Poet,

You should also take note that electricity prices in Europe are much higher too. The net advantage in energy costs for an EV is roughly the same in Europe as compared to the US.

@HarveyD,

5 minute fast charges are a result from ICE thinking. It is not how an EV is supposed to be used. It is more like a cell phone: charge overnight, use during the day.

A ~60 kWh battery would be sufficient for a compact car (VW Polo type), giving a usable range of about 250 km. Which is more than enough for most people to complete 350 days of car use per year. (Even then, using your suggested price of $150/kWh, this would lead to a $9000 battery in a car that is now available for a little more than $9000)

For the remaining days, they might require one or a few fast charges. Since this happens only a few times per year, people won't mind if it takes more than 5 minutes. I'd say 3x as long, or 15 minutes, would be very acceptable since most people want and need a short break anyway after driving 250 km.

An important condition that you missed is what I usually call 'ubiquitous fast charging'. People will not accept having to plan their journey from charger to charger. In practice this means that we must have fast chargers at least in every petrol station along the motorway.

And finally, add point 4) to your list: education. An EV will not be as cheap as an ICE vehicle for the forseeable future. But in terms of TCO it can already be an attractive proposition. You have to somehow educate people to attach less value to the sticker price and more to the long term running costs. Looking at how fast average fuel economy drops as soon as the oil price backs down a bit, this may be the hardest challenge of them all.

Anne.....I was referring to EVs only. We, like many North Americans, take frequent very long drives and normally stop at mid-day for lunch and gas. We often drive up to 450 Km between fuel/lunch stops. A 350/400 Km compromise would probably be acceptable to most but the current 100 to 150 Km is not enough. Only the new Tesla S (85 Kwh) EV seems to meet highway/long trips requirements and somewhat match ICE vehicles. With regards to charging time, a 5-minute time frame is very possible in the very near future. However, a mid-journey or lunch time stop would allow a slower (30/45 minutes) 50 Kwh recharge. The ideal would be to use very high speed, very efficient, e-trains for long trips but they simply do not exist in North America and may not exist for 100+ more years. We are private vehicle brain washed.

Long range EVs would be ideal in our area because we have a huge Hydro e-power surplus and we only pay $0.065 (Cdn) per Kwh everywhere on the extended network. Our long cold winters is more demanding on the batteries, that's why 100 Kwh is required instead of 85 Kwh.

@Harvey,
The long Canadian winter would call for a PHEV instead of a pure BEV, since the extra waste heat from the enagine is free, and the extra ssecurity of having a lot of potential heat energy on boaerd would be highly desirable in case you got trapped in a snow bank or during a snow storm before reacuers can arrive.

@HarveyD

"We often drive up to 450 Km between fuel/lunch stops."

Up to. Is that marketing speak up-to? Like in "saves up to 50% on petrol?" I am not interested in the fringes, more what average people do. If people regularly driving 450 km between stops are an exception, then we don't have to satisfy them for EV's to become common place, which was your premise in the first place.

You seem to fall in the pitfall of the naysayers: "the EV is a failure until it matches the ICE car in every single detail and can satisfy every niche". Every product is a compromise and people judge the entire package. 15 minutes is good enough. The few times per year that you have to wait 10 or 15 minutes longer will not be a dealbreaker for 90% of the population.

"Only the new Tesla S (85 Kwh) EV seems to meet highway/long trips requirements and somewhat match ICE vehicles. With regards to charging time, a 5-minute time frame is very possible in the very near future"

Define 'very near future'. All very optimistic, but a factor of 5-10 better than today's technology. The problem here is that every battery chemistry is a compromise, a choice of which properties you value most. The 5 most important ones:
price, energy density, power density, cycle life, fast charging ability.

The very high energy density and cheap Tesla battery sacrifices on fast charging ability. It allows charging at 1C, while a 5 minute fast charge requires 12C. That is quite a gap to fill. Yes, batteries that can charge in 5 minutes already exist, but those do not offer the price and energy density necessary for an affordable, long-range EV. Combining it into 1 battery is the challenge.

A trailer is not an attractive option as it limits your cruising speed on the motorway.

According to Dutch traffic regulation, the maximum speed for a vehicle with a trailer on the motorway is 90 km/h. For other European countries, comparable limitations are in effect, although the speed may differ according to local preferences.