Polyolefin-precursor carbon fiber, combined with alternative thermal treatment mechanisms, will reduce cost from a baseline of $21.2/kg today to $10.5/kg at pilot-line scale in 2017, driving greater adoption across newer industries such as pressure vessels, marine, consumer electronics, construction, tooling, and medical.

Aerospace and wind will duke it out for supremacy, while potentially high-volume automotive uses advance at a pedestrian pace.

—Ross Kozarsky, Lux Research Senior Analyst and the lead author

To assess current CFRP manufacturing costs and examine the innovation potential of each step of the process, Lux Research analysts built a model that examines material, capex, infrastructure, labor, and utility contributions, and their potential for cost reductions. Among their findings:

• Cutting precursor costs is critical. The industry’s best shot at achieving the carbon fiber price reduction necessary for high-volume applications like automotive is the employment of polyolefin-precursor carbon fiber, combined with plasma oxidation and carbonization.

• The trend in wind energy towards turbines blades more than 40 m long will open up new opportunities for CFRP where other composites can’t compete and will come sooner and faster in offshore wind than in onshore.

• The value of CFRPs lies in lightweighting, part consolidation, lower maintenance costs and reduced material usage. Consequently, partnerships are critical to ensure material developers integrate final parts into end user systems.