Pike Research forecasts automotive Li-ion battery market to grow to almost $22B in 2020; China to become global leader in production by 2015
|Total lithium-ion transportation battery revenue by region, world markets: 2012-2020. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge.|
In a new report, Pike Research forecasts that the overall market for Li-ion batteries in light duty transportation will grow from $1.6 billion in 2012 to almost $22 billion in 2020.
Battery-electric vehicles will be the dominant vehicle technology for driving market growth, Pike suggests, because they utilize much larger battery packs than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Current BEVs use battery packs ranging from 16 kWh to 85 kWh compared to PHEV packs ranging from 4 kWh to 16 kWh, for example.
Pike also expects additional applications of Li-ion batteries in hybrid vehicles as models go through their update cycles.
The challenges for Li-ion battery manufacturers that will enable more PEVs to be sold are to improve energy densities, reduce charging times, increase cycle life, and reduce the cost per kWh. As the Li-ion battery market develops, there will be a consolidation of manufacturers; this has already started with several lithium ion battery manufacturers having filed for bankruptcy protection.—“Electric Vehicle Batteries”
Pike anticipates that the Asia Pacific region will continue to be the global leader in both Li-ion production and consumption in the transportation industry, with support by major governments for aggressive goals in plug-in vehicle (PEV) production, creation of charging infrastructure, and incentives for consumer purchases.
Pike forecasts that China will likely succeed Japan as the leader in global automotive Li-ion battery production by 2015.
Although vehicle sales in North America represent some 37% of global light-duty automotive battery revenue, the US Li-ion battery manufacturing industry is still in an early stage of development, Pike notes. Pike expects the US Department of Energy (DOE) to continue its strong financial support for the industry through at least 2015 in an effort to meet the stated objective of increasing the US share of the global Li-ion battery market to 40%.