Lux: consumer electronics, not automotive, will drive next-gen battery development; solid-state over Li-S and Li-air
While much of the motivation for next-generation batteries comes from transportation, Lux Research’s analysis concludes that the automotive market will be the last to adopt next-generation batteries due to the extreme cost sensitivity of automakers, stringent safety and lifetime requirements, and long, cautious adoption cycles. Hence, makers of next-generation batteries will have to look to other markets first.
Designers of consumer electronics—the largest current Li-ion application—will move the next generation battery market more meaningfully as they continue to push towards devices with smaller footprints, according to Lux.
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Analyzing the consumer electronics space, solid-state batteries will provide real completion to Li-ion in the consumer electronics market, offering tremendous technical value for a segment that prizes volumetric efficiency and low costs, according to the research firm. By 2020, solid-state will draw close to Li-ion as current complex manufacturing processes that are a challenge today are solved, costs fall and energy densities rise.
From this foundation, solid state will surge past Li-ion in technical value by 2030. Li-S will also make strong progress, but won’t quite match the well-rounded value propositions of solid-state and advancing Li-ion, finding only niche consumer electronics applications that prize excellent specific energy above all else. Li-air is a non-factor in this sector, hampered by its volumetric inefficiency and its need for peripherals, according to Lux.