Integer Research predicts the European and North American markets will dominate sales of selective catalytic reduction (SCR)-equipped off-highway equipment, with these regions accounting for more than two thirds of the machine parc using SCR after-treatment by 2023. Depending on the timing of Tier 4-equivalent legislation, China has the potential to rival both markets by 2023 and sales of NRMM (non-road mobile machinery) with advanced exhaust after-treatment could surpass Europe and North America by 2023.
In Integer’s base-case scenario, the global SCR-equipped NRMM parc grows rapidly over the period 2017-2023, from 1 million SCR vehicles globally to 5 million by 2023. Its upside scenario predicts an explosive growth between 2017-2023 which sees the SCR parc expand seven-fold over this period as a result of Tier 4 Final / Stage IV phase-in and end of flexibility schemes. 2017 would see a global SCR vehicle parc of 1 million growing towards 7 million by 2023.
As well as SCR, Integer has studied the DPF (diesel particulate filter) and EGR (exhaust gas recirculation) markets and predicts a rapid increase in DPF sales post 2014. The DPF market will be concentrated on the North American, European and to a lesser degree Japanese, markets following the implementation of more stringent emission legislation. Both construction and agricultural sectors provide the main markets for DPF.
EGR technology will equally find its biggest non-road market in North America and Europe (87%). The BRIC countries are not expected to require DPF until post-2017 at the earliest and will start playing a bigger role when Tier 4 equivalents are rolled out post-2020.
Off-highway equipment manufacturers are addressing Tier 4 and Stage 4 requirements in a much more diverse way than we have seen in any other diesel emissions control markets. This creates opportunities for the most flexible and responsive component suppliers. We expect common technology paths to emerge, but at the moment the only clear theme is the widespread use of SCR – all other aspects vary tremendously across the market. Preparing this report has given us the opportunity to delve into the implications of these diverse strategies.—Tim Cheyne, Director at Integer Research
Besides the growth potential in Europe and North America, the BRIC countries offer attractive long-term opportunities. These opportunities depend on Tier 4 equivalent legislation implementation. China could be the key emerging market for advanced diesel after-treatment technology, and will generate most interest in terms of SCR applications. This is an interesting contrast to Japan, where OEMs will lean towards a preference of EGR and DPF technology instead of SCR due to the smaller average engine size.