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Ricardo study predicts that BRIC automotive markets will be eclipsed by the “Rising-15”

Positioning the Rising 15. Source: Ricardo Consulting. Click to enlarge.

A study by Ricardo Strategic Consulting has concluded that while sluggish automotive demand in Europe, Japan and North America will be balanced by the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) markets through 2020, thereafter the ‘Rising-15’ nations become the engine for profitable growth—assuming political stability.

Ricardo’s Rising-15 automotive markets include: Argentina; Egypt; Indonesia; Iran; Malaysia; Mexico; Morocco; Nigeria; Peru; the Philippines; South Africa; Thailand; Turkey; Ukraine; and Vietnam.

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The study set out to analyse and compare the key indicators for social and economic development, and market drivers in 23 countries. These included population size and growth; size and growth of the economy; social and scientific progress indicators; quality and extent of infrastructure; and the political and legal context.

Indicators were developed from raw data to compare countries in regard to the market prospects for passenger and commercial vehicles, and to offer an outlook for in-territory production potential. Using this refined data, the study provides an in-depth analysis of the potential for automotive growth.

Taken together, the Rising-15—which has a combined population of 1.2 billion—is already the third-largest vehicle market in the world, with annual sales exceeding 8.5 million vehicles in 2012. These sales are equivalent to the combined total of the four largest European vehicle markets: Germany, UK, France and Italy. Average annual growth across the Rising-15 has exceeded 9% for the past 10 years, and in most of these countries, Ricardo found, vehicle markets have grown faster than the economy as a whole.

The impending maturity and repeated hiccups in growth of the BRIC economies in the latter part of the current decade have been predicted by many industry observers. There have been winners and losers in the efforts of the current cohort of established global automakers to exploit growth within the BRIC region; the key strategic question now is where the next wave of growth based opportunity will arise.

—Andreas Schlosser, Ricardo Strategic Consulting managing director for Central Europe

The study indicates that the traditional triad markets of Europe, North America and Japan and Korea will continue to stagnate, with automakers struggling to reach pre-2008 vehicle sales levels. While demand falters, however, not all sectors are being affected equally, with lifestyle, premium and budget vehicles performing significantly more strongly than the squeezed mid-market sector brands previously favored by middle-class purchasers.

With signs of overcapacity already becoming apparent within the triad and the BRIC regions alike, stronger localization policies will combine with increasing competition to make these markets less attractive to global automakers, the report suggests.

By the end of the current decade, the more liberal markets and rapidly developing economies of the Rising-15 will offer significant new opportunities for the global automotive industry. With vehicle ownership strongly correlated to GDP per capita, the study indicates that the fast growing Rising-15 markets still offer the biggest potentials for automotive growth.

In markets such as these, a further qualitative trend in vehicle purchase has been the substitution of imported used vehicles with budget vehicle brands. But as with previous waves of international automotive expansion, according to the report, competition in this new phase of growth will be joined by new players—particularly from China and India—with aspirations for global expansion.

The full results of the study will be presented on an individual basis to Ricardo Strategic Consulting Customers.


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