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Navigant forecasts 18.6% CAGR for plug-ins in North America to 2022; 2.4% new vehicle share in US

Navigant
Annual light duty PEV Sales, top 5 states, 2013-2022. Source: Navigant. Click to enlarge.

In an update to its 2012 geographic breakdown of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in North America, Navigant Research now forecasts that overall sales of will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.6% between 2013 and 2022. Navigant Research forecasts that PEVs will reach 416,153 annual sales in the United States and 230,479 in Canada by 2022.

The model for North American PEV sales by US state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), Canadian province, Canadian city, and selected US utility service area has been updated to better align with actual sales data from the first full year of wide availability of PEVs.

Based on the new model, Navigant forecasts that California, New York, Washington, and Florida will likely lead the way with 815,280; 142,430; 105,033; and 102,517 cumulative PEV sales between 2013 and 2022, respectively.

Navigant expects Hawaii is expected to have the highest concentration of PEV sales by 2022: 10.1% of total Hawaii vehicle sales will be PEVs. Next will be Northern California with 9.7% (although for California as a whole, the rate will be only 6.0%) and then Oregon with 5.8%. Overall, 2.4% of total vehicle sales in the United States are expected to be PEVs in 2022.

Navigant expects the top five MSAs for total PEV sales over the forecast period to be Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City, Sacramento, and Riverside (California). These five MSAs will account for nearly one-third of US PEV sales by 2022 (112,587 sales, or 27.1% of total US PEV sales).

The combination of a large population area, early rollout schedules from vehicle manufacturers, and positive attitudes toward PEVs for these MSAs will result in strong CAGRs for PEV sales of up to 20% between 2013 and 2022.

In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Québec, and British Columbia (which account for 75% of the Canadian population) will account for 97% of Canadian PEV sales by 2022. The cities of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver will lead Canadian PEV sales.

The report segments sales forecasts by state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and utility service territory in the United States and by province and the nine largest cities in Canada. The forecasts were created by analyzing OEM vehicle rollout schedules, population and demographic trends in comparison to early PEV and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) owner demographic profiles, and attitudes toward electric vehicles.

PEV attitudes. Navigant Research developed an index of positive attitudes toward PEVs. Since much of this data was obtained at the state level, California and New York were each split into two groups—Northern and Southern California and upstate and downstate New York—to ensure that MSAs within these regions had their own measures and were not influenced by large MSAs in a particular part of the state.

The top US regions with positive consumer attitude toward PEVs (1.0 represents the national average) are:

  • Northern California: 3.79
  • New Jersey: 3.14
  • Vermont: 2.96
  • Texas: 2.63
  • Southern California: 2.53

The top Canadian provinces with positive consumer demographics and population for PEV adoption (1.0 represents the national average) are:

  • Ontario: 5.92
  • Quebec: 3.95
  • British Columbia: 2.22

(The forecast model for Canada is based on data similar to that used for the United States, with the exception of the PEV attitudes, for which there is not enough quantitative data to provide numeric indexes. Data for Canada is based more heavily on demographic, economic, and population data.)

Comments

HarveyD

It is difficult to believe that USA's electrified vehicles sales will only be 2X Canada's in 2022. Common sense would rather conclude that USA's sales would be closer to the relative population of both countries and be at least 10X Canada's or even more due the more favorable environment South of the border.

Quebec, Manitoba and British Columbia, with access to hydro energy, should eventually promote the use of electrified vehicles more actively. It will be the case in Quebec Province before the end of 2013. Pro-active programs may impact electrified vehicles sales more than expected?

TexasDesert

New York Governor Cuomo appointed commission is investigating Navigant for possible fraud to Federal Prosecutors in Brooklyn.

$$$ are involved.

HarveyD

Promoting EVs is a crime in some places?

Mannstein

It says nothing about whether climate was factored in. Manitoba and Quebec have some of the coldest winter temperatures in North America. Maybe EVs will be equipped with supplemental gasoline heaters which was the case for the VW Beetle sold in these Provinces.

Mannstein

He may wear a tin foil hat in some instances but Governor Cuomo is hardly your typical Right Wing nutcase.

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