OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook projects global ethanol production to increase 67% over next 10 years to 44B gallons
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 projects that global ethanol production will increase 67% over the next ten years, with biodiesel increasing even faster but from a smaller base. The report projects that ethanol production will reach 168 billion liters (44 billion gallons US), with biodiesel reaching 41 billion liters (11 billion gallons US) by 2022.
By 2022, biofuel production is projected to consume a significant amount of the total world production of sugar cane (28%), vegetable oils (15%) and coarse grains (12%).
Global ethanol production has fallen in calendar year 2012 for the first time since 2000, due to declines in the United States and in Brazil. With lower prices of maize and sugar anticipated in 2013-2014, a large increase in production is anticipated in both countries. By 2022, world ethanol production is projected to increase by almost 70% compared to the average of 2010-12 and reach some 168 bnl by 2022. The three major producers are expected to remain the United States, Brazil and the European Union. Production and use in the United States and the European Union are mainly driven by the policies in place (i.e. RFS2 and the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), respectively). The growing use of ethanol in Brazil is linked to the development of the flex-fuel industry and the import demand of the United States to fill the advanced biofuel mandate as well as to their increase in blending minimums.—OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
Ethanol markets will be dominated by the US, Brazil and, to a smaller extent, the European Union. The biodiesel market will be dominated by the EU and more marginally by US, Argentina and Brazil.
The report sees that an increase in production of second-generation biofuels will remain very limited.
The report projects that ethanol production in developing countries will increase from 42 billion liters (11 billion gallons US) in 2012 to 72 billion (19 billion gallons US) in 2022, with Brazil accounting for 80% of the increase. China will provide much of the rest. There, less than half of the ethanol production is currently used in the in the fuel market. Growth in ethanol production in China will come from cassava and sorghum, the report noted, because the use of corn for ethanol production is no longer allowed to increase.