ABI Research sees annual EV sales at 2.36M units worldwide in 2020; importance of autonomous EVs in Internet of Things
According to ABI Research, the number of full electric vehicles (EVs) shipping yearly worldwide will increase from 150,000 in 2013 to 2.36 million in 2020, representing a CAGR of 48%. Asia-Pacific will exhibit the strongest growth, driven by mounting pollution issues in its many megacities; however, true mass-market uptake will only start happening in the next decade.
Overall, EV sales have been disappointing so far due to a lack of choice and perceived personal benefits, high purchase prices, and most importantly, consumer anxiety about range, maximum speed, recharging times, and the lack of public charging infrastructure. However, with many car OEMs recently dropping prices and offering more choice and improved performance, full electric vehicles are on the verge of leaving their eco niche of environmentally aware and socially responsible buyers, illustrated by car OEMs such as BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen investing heavily in electrification.
Importantly, a range of emerging automotive technologies such as carbon-fiber materials, wireless in-car networking technologies, active safety including pedestrian detection and autonomous driving, connectivity, car sharing, and smart grid demand response features will support the electric automotive revolution as all new paradigms are mutually reinforcing each other.—ABI VP and practice director, Dominique Bonte
However, the role of governments in supporting the case of EVs through tax rebates and subsidies, stimulating the roll out of public charging infrastructure, exempting EVs from toll in congestion zones, allowing EVs on High Occupancy lanes, providing free parking, and mandating very aggressive emission standards will remain critical during the remainder of this decade.
Ultimately the connected, autonomous EVs will form an intrinsic part of the Internet of Things (IoT), with vehicles relying on and contributing to the emergence of intelligent road infrastructure including wireless charging, smart grids, digital homes and remote healthcare while realizing the promise of safe, convenient, efficient, affordable and sustainable transportation, ABI suggests.
ABI Research’s new “Full Electric Vehicles” study covers electrification market trends and drivers, EV technologies including crowd and cloud charging, main players and EVs on the market, and forecast for shipments, EV vehicle base, revenues and public charging infrastructure. It also describes the role of EVs in the future IoT. The study is part of the Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Service.