Study finds rates of LDV fuel consumption in US peaked in 2004; indications of peak motorization
16 November 2013
In a follow-up study to his earlier analysis of trends of light-duty vehicle registration and distance driven in the US (earlier post), Dr. Michael Sivak of The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) finds that fuel consumption rates—per person, per driver, and per household—are declining, as are ownership and driving. The bottom line, he concludes in this third report, is that “We drive fewer light-duty vehicles, we drive each of them less, and we consume less fuel.”
Sivak examined the period from 1984 through 2011. Based on the present data, his best estimates of the current annual fuel-consumption rates are: 398 gallons (1,507 liters) per person, 585 gallons (2,214 liters) per licensed driver, 1,033 gallons (3,910 liters) per household, and 530 gallons (2,006 liters) per registered vehicle. These rates are down 16% to 17% from their peaks in 2004, except that the rate per vehicle is down 13% (from its peak in 2003).
The fuel consumption rates for the four variables of interest (person, licensed driver, household and registered vehicle), he observed, are now lower than they were in 1984—the first year of the analysis.
Fuel consumed per person. In 1984, the average amount of fuel consumed per person was 400 gallons. This rate increased to a maximum of 474 gallons in 2004. The 2011 rate was 398 gallons.
Fuel consumed per licensed driver. In 1984, the average amount of fuel consumed per driver was 608 gallons. The rate increased to a maximum of 698 gallons in 2004. The rate for 2011 was 585 gallons.
Fuel consumed per household. In 1984, the average amount of fuel consumed per household was 1,106 gallons. The rate increased to a maximum of 1,240 gallons in 2004. The rate for 2011 was 1,033 gallons.
Fuel consumed per registered light-duty vehicle. In 1984, the average amount of fuel consumed per vehicle was 602 gallons. The rate increased to a maximum of 611 gallons in 2003. The rate for 2011 was 530 gallons.
| Measures of motorization in the US | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measure | Peak year(s) | Reduction in 2011 from the peak |
||||
| Vehicles | 2008 | -1% | ||||
| Vehicles per person, per licensed driver, and per household | 2001 to 2006 | -5% | ||||
| Distance driven | 2006 | -5% | ||||
| Distance driven per person, per licensed driver, per household, and per vehicle | 2004 | -9% to -5% | ||||
| Fuel consumed | 2004 | -11% | ||||
| Fuel consumed per person, per licensed driver, per household, and per vehicle | 2003 to 2004 | -13% to -17% | ||||
Total amount of fuel consumed by light-duty vehicles peaked in 2004 at 138.8 billion gallons; in 2011 the amount was 123.9 billion gallons. Prior to the peak in 2004, the last time this rate was below the 2011 level was in 1998.
… However, it is not clear whether the 2004 maximum would be a permanent peak. The factor that supports a temporary peak only is the expected future increase in the total distance driven (due to the increasing population and the improving economy). On the other hand, the factors that support a long-term peak are the decreased licensure rates of young persons, the apparent peaking of the vehicle-ownership and distance-driven rates, the expected continued improvement in vehicle fuel economy of internal-combustion and hybrid vehicles, and the expected increased penetration of fully electric vehicles (EDTA, 2013). The future interplay of these factors will determine whether or not the 2004 peak will be surpassed in the future.
—Sivak (2013)
Resources
Michael Sivak (2013) “Has Motorization In The U.S. Peaked? Part 3: Fuel Consumed By Light-Duty Vehicles” UMTRI-2013-40
Another way to look at it, is in direct relation to USA's economic acivities.
The Clinton years and Bush first mandate represent a long peak/plateau in USA's prosperity.
When people work and are prosper they buy bigger vehicles (gas guzzlers) and travel more.
When good paying jobs are harder to get, people buy smaller, more efficient vehicles and travel less. People working at MacDonald, Walmart, Target, HomeDepot, 7-11s, and picking fruit and vegetables etc share vehicle and don't travel more than they have to.
Of course, new vehicles can average 2 or 3 mpg better, and that also helps. The effect will be seen in the next 5 years or so. However, as people return to work and earn more, they will buy larger vehicles, travel more and wipe off part of the gains from more efficient vehicles.
The transition to more efficient electrified vehicles may bring about lasting changes but it may not happened much before 2020 or so. We may have to wait till 2030 to see major changes.
Posted by: HarveyD | 16 November 2013 at 08:07 AM
As the economy has recovered US drivers have not been increasing either miles driven or fuel use per mile.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | 16 November 2013 at 10:19 AM
Better mileage, few miles driven and North Dakota oil all help. The fracked oil won't last long, develop synthetic fuels now.
Posted by: SJC | 16 November 2013 at 10:21 AM
The stats above end in 2011 which was still a very slow economic year in USA. Stats for 2013 and 2014 may show large increases in miles travelled and fuel used per vehicle.
That trend may reverse again by 2020+ when more efficient ICEVs, PHEVs and BEVs hit the roads in larger numbers.
Posted by: HarveyD | 16 November 2013 at 05:08 PM
@ HarveyD: Great point. I also read that auto fatalities went up last year for the first time since 2008 which further corroborates your theory.
Posted by: Brent Jatko | 16 November 2013 at 05:13 PM
People are free to speculate that miles driven may increase in the future, but to date miles driven continues to increase as the economy increases.
Young people are driving far less than earlier generations did. They are getting their drivers licenses in much lower numbers.
And at the same time the average MPG for the US fleet is improving.
It looks to me as if we might have passed peak gas usage.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | 16 November 2013 at 06:55 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.