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IEA: non-OPEC oil supply tops 43 mb/d for first time in decades; global demand to reach 92.4 mb/d in 2014

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Oil Market Report (OMR) for December raised the estimate of global oil demand for 2013 by 130,000 barrels per day (130 kb/d) to 91.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), on stronger-than-expected third-quarter demand growth among OECD countries of 320 kb/d. Global demand is now seen advancing by 1.2 mb/d in both 2013 and 2014, to reach 92.4 mb/d in 2014.

Global oil supplies increased by 310 kb/d in November to 92.3 mb/d, as non-OPEC crude output topped 43 mb/d for the first time in decades. Year-on-year, November supplies rose by 810 kb/d, as a 1.9 mb/d surge in non-OPEC liquids and OPEC NGL more than offset a 1.1 mb/d drop in OPEC crude.

OPEC crude supply fell by 160 kb/d in November to 29.73 mb/d, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. Renewed disruptions in Libya and smaller drops in Nigeria, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela more than offset higher output in Iran, Iraq and Angola.

Global refinery crude runs plunged to 73.6 mb/d in October, down by 2 mb/d on September and by 1 mb/d from the previous year, on sweeping plant maintenance and weak margins. OECD Europe and the United States led the decline. Throughputs are projected to rebound to 76.3 mb/d in the current quarter, up 180 kb/d from a year earlier, and to 76.7 mb/d in the first quarter of next year, a year-on-year rise of 1.2 mb/d.



It seems that Global Oil consumption is picking up faster than in USA.

Since USA's economic recovery was somewhat of a leader, this would indicate that an economic shift (to Asia?) is taking place.

Will is swing back before 2020 or so?


With India, China and others, demand will exceed 100 million barrels per day. Will the world be able to supply that demand? Oil is costing more to explore and develop, do we want a greater proportion of world GDP to go toward developing scarcer and more expensive oil resources?


That is already happening, isn't it?

Tar Sands, Shales, Deep Sea, Artic Ocean etc are good examples.

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